Trifling-Screenwriting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.11K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.4%

Resolved

766

Trades

1,092

lifetime

Volume

$57.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 11-04 09:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 87% +$1,096

Other

27% 83% +$19

Politics

9% 76% -$19

Sports

6% 95% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	8	$441	234	234	+0	No	+$1	04-14 09:13
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 8?	4	$395	208	208	+0	No	-$5	05-08 19:41
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	4	$378	207	206	+0	No	-$22	05-18 16:38
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 3?	4	$298	165	165	+0	No	-$22	05-04 02:55
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	3	$290	208	102	+106	No	-$4	05-15 10:16
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	3	$289	211	105	+105	Yes	-$5	05-14 05:34
ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	4	$286	156	156	+0	No	-$14	06-05 08:31
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	3	$286	209	103	+106	Yes	-$9	05-12 17:47
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 115 139	5	$276	171	115	+56	No	+$2	04-11 00:13
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	1	$249	1,134	0	+1,134	Yes	+$885	02-05 09:51
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 4?	3	$233	166	83	+83	No	-$5	05-04 10:12
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 3 6	4	$232	120	120	+0	No	+$2	04-14 09:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	3	$221	159	78	+81	No	-$8	04-29 20:14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?	3	$215	159	79	+81	Yes	-$5	06-03 06:06
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 8?	2	$203	103	103	+0	No	+$3	05-09 04:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?	2	$192	107	107	+0	Yes	-$8	05-16 06:52
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15?	2	$192	103	103	+0	No	-$8	05-14 16:23
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	2	$191	102	102	+0	No	-$9	05-18 08:05
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$191	104	104	+0	Yes	-$9	05-10 09:44
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	2	$191	105	105	+0	Yes	-$9	05-08 22:19
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 11?	2	$191	102	102	+0	No	-$9	05-11 12:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$190	106	106	+0	No	-$10	05-21 17:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10?	2	$189	105	105	+0	No	-$11	05-10 20:17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$189	104	104	+0	Yes	-$11	05-12 20:47
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	2	$187	105	105	+0	Down	-$13	05-18 11:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 17?	2	$187	102	102	+0	No	-$13	05-18 00:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18?	2	$187	106	106	+0	No	-$13	05-18 11:51
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 11?	2	$187	108	108	+0	No	-$13	05-11 13:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8?	2	$185	95	95	+0	Yes	+$5	05-08 19:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8?	2	$185	95	95	+0	No	+$5	05-08 19:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 09:44:51	Bitcoin above 78,600 on November 4, 5AM ET?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xcb694f…
11-04 09:35:46	Bitcoin above 78,600 on November 4, 5AM ET?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xfe47a5…
11-04 09:31:15	Bitcoin above 78,600 on November 4, 5AM ET?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb38875…
11-04 09:08:33	bitcoin above 78600 on november 4 2026 5am et	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x05bce6…
11-04 09:05:13	bitcoin above 78600 on november 4 2026 5am et	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x43b7ac…
11-04 08:36:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xab14e6…
11-04 08:32:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x50f199…
11-03 21:03:19	bitcoin above 78000 on november 3 2026 5pm et	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x04d9b7…
11-03 20:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xad8b66…
11-03 20:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x5776b6…
11-03 10:06:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb27760…
11-03 10:06:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xc88bad…
11-03 09:52:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x8d2741…
11-03 09:51:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0fee12…
11-01 07:55:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x7ceb0f…
11-01 03:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xf2efe5…
11-01 03:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xb3bb81…
11-01 03:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbd33cd…
11-01 03:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x48f43f…
11-01 03:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x39bb2e…
11-01 03:47:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xab470e…
11-01 03:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xfe97fd…
11-01 03:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x5bca8f…
11-01 03:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x00bacd…
11-01 03:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfaea91…
11-01 03:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xe1ab3a…
11-01 03:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xac8570…
11-01 03:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x54338b…
11-01 02:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xb134ff…
11-01 02:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x846f07…
10-31 08:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xcc87b9…
10-31 08:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x7487f8…
10-31 08:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xffed8c…
10-31 08:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8c0403…
10-31 08:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xdabf62…
10-31 08:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x91cb0f…
10-31 08:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x0edb9d…
10-31 08:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x597183…
10-31 08:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xe14dce…
10-31 08:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x5f99d1…
10-31 08:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xedba1e…
10-31 08:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xddfc3b…
10-31 08:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xc1b9ee…
10-31 08:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xaa0f0b…
10-31 01:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc08d25…
10-31 01:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xade113…
10-31 01:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xfdb924…
10-31 01:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5b65be…
10-31 01:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb08ab4…
10-31 01:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x524482…
10-31 01:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xe636f6…
10-31 01:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x49ff11…
10-31 01:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x629c5e…
10-31 01:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x56b71b…
10-31 01:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xd5fa82…
10-31 01:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x5e2789…
10-31 01:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x3510b2…
10-31 01:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x99c2c2…
06-05 08:31:33	xrp above 1pt1 on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	78	82¢	$64	0x75e613…
06-05 08:31:25	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	78	89¢	$69	0x08b7d1…
06-05 08:31:19	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 24pt5	Knicks	SELL	80	91¢	$73	0x862a07…
06-05 08:31:13	Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	80	93¢	$74	0x314986…
06-05 08:31:06	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?	No	SELL	77	97¢	$75	0x5f57b9…
06-05 08:30:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	80	94¢	$75	0x857506…
06-05 08:30:49	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	79	97¢	$76	0xdef60c…
06-05 08:30:43	xrp above 1pt2 on june 5 2026	No	SELL	78	97¢	$75	0x3c1d09…
06-05 08:30:37	ethereum above 1900 on june 5 2026	No	SELL	78	99¢	$78	0xbea808…
06-05 08:30:30	bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	No	SELL	80	97¢	$78	0x053cd1…
06-05 08:30:25	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x9c67e5…
06-05 08:30:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x5e945e…
06-05 04:29:01	Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xe18616…
06-05 02:58:24	xrp above 1pt2 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x34dc23…
06-05 02:28:04	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x4cae6b…
06-05 01:57:52	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0xef9aef…
06-04 18:25:19	bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xfccc23…
06-04 16:24:39	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 24pt5	Knicks	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x1d2dd4…
06-04 14:54:07	xrp above 1pt1 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x8f3940…
06-04 10:22:54	ethereum above 1900 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x7a834b…
06-04 10:22:52	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x5bd89f…
06-04 10:22:51	bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	78	97¢	$75	0xb0722f…
06-04 02:06:07	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	78	86¢	$67	0x4a3c8c…
06-04 01:20:52	ethereum above 1700 on june 4 2026	Yes	SELL	77	86¢	$66	0x02f98c…
06-04 00:50:49	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	78	97¢	$75	0x28c596…
06-03 21:49:49	ethereum above 1900 on june 4 2026	No	SELL	80	80¢	$64	0x2b6fcd…
06-03 19:49:18	ethereum above 1900 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x2b0183…
06-03 18:18:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	77	97¢	$75	0xc87109…
06-03 18:18:46	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0xbc18d9…
06-03 11:46:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x9740e9…
06-03 07:15:14	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0xc49579…
06-03 06:06:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	81	93¢	$75	0xe710b2…
06-02 23:35:12	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x51bab9…
06-02 23:04:53	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?	Yes	SELL	79	82¢	$65	0xfbf141…
06-02 20:34:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0xe7de17…
06-02 16:02:54	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x7c5342…
06-02 15:32:43	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0xc6a443…
06-02 14:32:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	77	89¢	$69	0xfee663…
06-02 09:00:36	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 2?	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x647bf7…
06-02 07:30:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x1ab8a7…
06-02 07:14:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	SELL	78	88¢	$69	0xd4bc29…
06-02 04:59:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x471b6c…