(anonymous) 0x34f3d3…c797df Create alert
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Realized P&L (7d)
-$104
Unrealized P&L
+$129
Hit rate
42.9%
Resolved (7d)
48
Trades (7d)
105
342 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$733
$1.84K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$676
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-28
last 11-11 01:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Other
72% 37% -$40
Politics
20% 42% -$11
Tech
7% 0% -$15
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +128 $69 72¢ $93 +$24 11-02 07:26
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? No +52 $27 96¢ $50 +$24 11-08 14:58
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +48 $20 99¢ $48 +$28 11-04 04:37
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? Yes +292 $44 16¢ $45 +$1 11-09 02:56
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +67 $39 66¢ $44 +$4 11-07 21:40
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +105 $55 34¢ $36 -$18 11-07 18:53
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? No +30 $24 86¢ $26 +$2 10-31 11:15
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes +57 $21 40¢ $23 +$1 11-11 01:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026? Yes +26 $20 88¢ $22 +$2 11-08 11:28
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes +40 $18 55¢ $22 +$4 11-04 16:17
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026? Yes +36 $6 61¢ $22 +$16 10-31 14:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +22 $15 86¢ $19 +$4 10-30 13:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +20 $17 92¢ $18 +$2 11-01 12:23
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes +40 $12 44¢ $18 +$6 11-08 11:53
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +20 $6 84¢ $17 +$10 10-30 12:50
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? No +25 $14 64¢ $16 +$2 11-07 02:53
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +20 $12 77¢ $16 +$4 11-07 23:15
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +33 $15 44¢ $15 $0 11-08 11:32
Will Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” sell for at least $225m at auction? Yes +43 $14 30¢ $13 -$1 11-07 21:39
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +16 $9 80¢ $13 +$4 10-28 17:26
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +30 $9 40¢ $12 +$3 11-08 11:32
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +40 $14 29¢ $12 -$2 11-08 22:06
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +27 $10 40¢ $11 +$1 11-08 11:29
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +22 $10 48¢ $10 +$1 11-05 02:27
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +25 $10 41¢ $10 +$0 11-08 11:34
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +26 $12 38¢ $10 -$2 11-01 09:16
Will Gustav Klimt's “Litzlbergkeller” sell for between $60m and $75m at auction? No +14 $9 68¢ $10 +$1 11-07 21:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +25 $14 36¢ $9 -$5 11-06 22:56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +10 $6 88¢ $9 +$3 11-04 18:32
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? Yes +15 -$2 59¢ $9 +$11 11-06 18:23