Realized P&L
+$292.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$456
Hit rate
76.4%
Resolved
200
Trades
25,648
lifetime
Volume
$12.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$505
Open exposure
$69
2 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 04-29 14:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 77 days
Categories
Politics
90%
69%
+$279,940
Other
9%
58%
+$8,509
Tech
1%
50%
+$3,712
Sports
0%
57%
-$126
Crypto
0%
—
—
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-04-29).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +5,755 | $576 | 1¢ | $69 | -$506 | 04-28 12:33 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +0 | -$50 | 88¢ | $0 | +$50 | 04-29 08:44 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 1,474 | $1.15M | 1,005,609 | 1,128,326 | -122,717 | Yes | +$103,462 | 02-27 00:13 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 1,669 | $636.2K | 586,228 | 275,807 | +310,421 | No | +$66,353 | 04-12 19:26 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 1,417 | $611.9K | 643,664 | 591,309 | +52,354 | Yes | +$61,408 | 04-07 23:35 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 991 | $571.9K | 627,273 | 602,897 | +24,376 | Yes | +$54,249 | 02-28 02:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 333 | $567.3K | 297,343 | 288,982 | +8,361 | No | +$3,932 | 02-09 23:06 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | 573 | $405.0K | 392,906 | 270,647 | +122,259 | Yes | +$24,433 | 02-28 01:08 |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | 325 | $360.0K | 282,975 | 204,740 | +78,235 | Yes | -$36,697 | 02-28 02:26 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 330 | $356.5K | 234,406 | 220,907 | +13,499 | No | +$1,339 | 02-20 18:50 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 691 | $349.0K | 468,600 | 311,266 | +157,334 | Yes | -$114,370 | 04-08 00:36 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 1,902 | $269.7K | 603,000 | 251,931 | +351,069 | Yes | -$61,158 | 04-19 19:31 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 226 | $266.8K | 218,211 | 169,452 | +48,759 | Yes | -$8,442 | 03-01 01:33 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 160 | $247.0K | 172,075 | 179,057 | -6,982 | No | +$12,024 | 02-26 18:07 |
| us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368 | 454 | $234.8K | 214,324 | 157,277 | +57,047 | No | +$3,557 | 02-26 10:35 |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | 289 | $219.7K | 137,684 | 153,585 | -15,901 | Yes | +$26,988 | 02-27 02:11 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | 356 | $206.6K | 276,538 | 172,811 | +103,726 | Yes | -$35,739 | 02-28 01:57 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 328 | $203.7K | 132,345 | 138,130 | -5,785 | No | +$11,675 | 02-11 13:08 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | 301 | $200.5K | 150,608 | 167,047 | -16,439 | Yes | +$19,530 | 02-24 15:29 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 598 | $197.3K | 133,766 | 131,089 | +2,677 | No | +$3,696 | 01-29 17:33 |
| us strikes iran by february 25 2026 | 292 | $195.1K | 172,992 | 95,845 | +77,147 | No | +$4,140 | 02-24 23:44 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 275 | $193.0K | 448,254 | 234,240 | +214,014 | Yes | +$29,435 | 04-07 23:58 |
| us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563 | 307 | $186.8K | 128,306 | 114,515 | +13,791 | No | +$11,183 | 02-22 13:09 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 202 | $186.2K | 228,506 | 192,170 | +36,336 | Yes | +$17,184 | 04-21 19:25 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 330 | $177.0K | 193,024 | 185,220 | +7,803 | Yes | +$42,672 | 04-11 12:45 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | 217 | $173.1K | 172,587 | 117,086 | +55,501 | Yes | +$21,069 | 04-07 23:43 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 589 | $153.5K | 169,075 | 156,806 | +12,270 | No | -$4,605 | 01-29 21:28 |
| will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election | 353 | $148.2K | 156,229 | 29,326 | +126,904 | No | +$24,969 | 04-12 18:49 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 100 | $146.2K | 152,871 | 148,086 | +4,785 | Yes | +$4,752 | 03-01 01:40 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | 147 | $142.2K | 142,986 | 65,006 | +77,981 | No | +$1,771 | 02-12 09:45 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | 497 | $141.1K | 163,676 | 161,493 | +2,183 | Yes | -$11,749 | 04-07 23:18 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 172 | $139.8K | 174,074 | 139,907 | +34,168 | Yes | +$7,277 | 04-11 12:43 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||