Honest-Play — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

93.0%

Resolved

Trades

893

lifetime

Volume

$1.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-03

last 06-20 18:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

66% — —

Other

26% 92% +$4

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes		-2	$-0	16¢	$-0	+$0	06-06 18:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1772581200	4	$40	49	0	+49	open	—	03-03 23:44
btc updown 5m 1772680800	9	$28	19	14	+5	open	—	03-05 03:24
btc updown 5m 1772585400	5	$23	27	0	+27	open	—	03-04 00:54
btc updown 5m 1772578500	2	$21	29	0	+29	open	—	03-03 22:59
spx opens up or down on march 6 2026	4	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	03-06 14:12
btc updown 5m 1772579100	5	$20	27	0	+27	open	—	03-03 23:09
btc updown 5m 1775096400	3	$19	31	28	+3	open	—	04-02 02:24
btc updown 5m 1775097600	2	$18	35	33	+2	open	—	04-02 02:42
btc updown 5m 1772583900	4	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	03-04 00:30
btc updown 5m 1772750100	7	$15	24	2	+23	open	—	03-05 22:39
spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	6	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	06-17 14:02
btc updown 5m 1772577300	3	$13	17	0	+17	open	—	03-03 22:39
btc updown 5m 1775091300	2	$13	19	18	+1	open	—	04-02 00:56
btc updown 5m 1772587500	2	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	03-04 01:28
spx opens up or down on june 12 2026	4	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	06-12 16:17
btc updown 5m 1775090400	4	$11	24	23	+1	open	—	04-02 00:42
btc updown 5m 1772569500	6	$11	14	0	+14	open	—	03-03 20:28
iran closes its airspace by june 8	9	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	06-08 12:24
btc updown 5m 1772578800	6	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	03-03 23:05
btc updown 5m 1775132700	4	$10	19	18	+1	open	—	04-02 12:27
btc updown 5m 1772582100	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	03-03 23:59
btc updown 5m 1772585100	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	03-04 00:48
btc updown 5m 1772550900	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-03 15:18
btc updown 5m 1775090700	3	$10	16	15	+1	open	—	04-02 00:47
btc updown 5m 1772761800	6	$9	16	2	+14	open	—	03-06 01:54
btc updown 5m 1772684700	6	$9	13	0	+13	open	—	03-05 04:29
btc updown 5m 1774689300	5	$9	15	15	+0	open	—	03-28 09:16
btc updown 5m 1774147800	6	$9	11	9	+1	open	—	03-22 02:54
btc updown 5m 1775091000	2	$9	13	12	+1	open	—	04-02 00:51
btc updown 5m 1772571900	5	$9	7	5	+2	open	—	03-03 21:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 18:45:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x49969c…
06-19 01:25:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd90fd7…
06-19 01:07:40	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xaf81f9…
06-19 01:05:49	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x1d7089…
06-17 21:49:41	swbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt23	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9f7f53…
06-17 19:22:19	spx up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x022da4…
06-17 19:15:23	spx up or down on june 17 2026	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xfe69d3…
06-17 14:02:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe8f292…
06-17 14:02:13	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdc78f0…
06-17 12:18:49	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf6bb73…
06-17 12:15:37	swbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt23	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xadc568…
06-17 12:12:37	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x95532f…
06-17 12:12:13	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x370eb3…
06-17 10:02:08	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xfae513…
06-17 09:54:56	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x702ba7…
06-17 09:54:10	spx opens up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x847f65…
06-16 00:52:39	wti closes above 84 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x77ddc0…
06-16 00:51:45	wti closes above 84 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x068e7c…
06-16 00:37:15	will nvda dip to 200 by june 15 2026	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x236508…
06-16 00:29:21	btc updown 5m 1781569500	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x89ab05…
06-15 10:52:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xc1f36b…
06-15 01:23:48	spx opens up or down on june 15 2026	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x06cd34…
06-15 01:21:07	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Sean O'Malley	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xe5600b…
06-15 01:16:43	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Sean O'Malley	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8c6d28…
06-14 21:56:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x30d898…
06-14 10:20:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xa73261…
06-12 16:17:39	spx opens up or down on june 12 2026	Up	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa6ca38…
06-12 09:18:36	spx opens up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x769050…
06-12 01:45:49	spx opens up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb29be0…
06-12 01:43:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5f0efc…
06-12 01:42:16	spx opens up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd77a2a…
06-10 11:01:30	spx opens up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xbd3fd0…
06-09 08:37:10	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Up	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xf2d248…
06-09 08:37:00	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Down	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xbda3d0…
06-09 01:42:22	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf901cc…
06-09 01:15:04	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb96129…
06-09 01:15:01	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcc26e4…
06-08 12:24:30	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1a54e1…
06-08 12:21:21	bitcoin above 56k on june 8 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfd05f0…
06-08 11:12:18	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xefcd66…
06-08 11:10:39	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x36b468…
06-08 08:36:24	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Down	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x08d82a…
06-07 20:49:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x5be911…
06-07 20:46:46	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8b647f…
06-07 20:25:21	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x091fb1…
06-07 20:22:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb8c0af…
06-07 20:19:15	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x0faea9…
06-07 20:08:00	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x72de9a…
06-07 20:06:19	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x10ee6e…
06-07 20:02:25	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4266de…
06-07 00:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe26b4a…
06-07 00:54:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf123af…
06-06 18:55:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x84f923…
06-06 14:10:43	will donald trump dance on june 6 2026 20260602150034329	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf267ba…
06-06 14:07:09	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd0f55b…
06-06 14:03:30	bitcoin above 56k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x58e4be…
06-05 16:19:45	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe14d44…
06-05 01:24:43	cpb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 08 2026 0pt48	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x090cbf…
06-05 01:18:12	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd2cfff…
06-05 01:15:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x40c7a5…
06-05 01:15:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xbc3533…
06-05 01:13:12	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x95faf0…
06-05 01:12:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xac2797…
06-05 01:11:10	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb8ac6a…
06-05 01:07:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x2a58bb…
06-05 00:57:06	will trump say n word this week	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xffe54e…
06-05 00:41:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xf76abb…
06-05 00:40:43	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xb7fce7…
06-05 00:33:15	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xdf212d…
06-04 00:49:22	lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 04 2026 1pt68	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1c9233…
06-04 00:48:31	bitcoin up or down june 5 2026 12pm et	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x16ed57…
06-04 00:48:16	bitcoin up or down june 5 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x68b3ce…
06-04 00:47:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcd7641…
06-04 00:47:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7ad66e…
06-03 14:39:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xab78b5…
06-03 11:47:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbf48c1…
06-03 11:10:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x371017…
06-02 15:56:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfe7d33…
06-02 15:54:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2?	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x969d23…
06-02 11:26:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd56105…
06-02 11:26:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xfe9d81…
05-29 15:27:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29?	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd2e9dd…
05-28 11:28:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf963c6…
05-28 10:18:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb5f6d1…
05-28 10:18:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2a3768…
05-26 16:05:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x319610…
05-26 09:22:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xee1047…
05-25 11:13:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8507d7…
05-22 11:41:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22?	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x17025e…
05-22 08:59:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22?	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x33b0b6…
05-20 15:53:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20?	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x80d246…
05-20 09:41:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x902ddd…
05-19 16:25:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa41c7b…
05-19 10:34:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xc1cead…
05-18 13:32:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8077ee…
05-18 12:57:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x7c50e9…
05-18 12:56:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xfe92d5…
05-18 12:47:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x93f969…
05-18 10:50:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xcb0d54…
05-15 01:27:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x861a89…