Orange-Arcade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.52K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

Trades

264

lifetime

Volume

$80.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$306

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 07-31 22:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 72% +$650

Politics

35% 64% -$2,720

Other

19% 50% -$452

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-31).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	5	$6.4K	4,110	4,110	+0	No	+$1,473	04-26 11:43
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-10 20:00 UTC	5	$4.7K	3,238	3,203	+35	Down	+$301	03-10 22:17
bitcoin up or down march 10 11am et	10	$4.7K	2,914	2,890	+24	Down	+$220	03-10 16:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$4.3K	4,035	4,035	+0	No	+$240	04-06 13:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	6	$4.2K	3,518	3,518	+0	No	+$723	05-05 13:58
bitcoin above 70k on april 6	4	$4.0K	2,235	2,200	+35	No	+$478	04-06 16:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$3.6K	2,296	2,296	+0	No	+$646	05-28 11:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$3.5K	1,914	1,914	+0	No	+$358	06-07 20:53
bitcoin up or down march 10 3pm et	4	$3.4K	3,855	1,733	+2,123	Up	-$1,264	03-10 19:53
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	4	$3.4K	2,826	2,826	+0	Yes	+$143	03-18 15:29
bitcoin up or down march 10 12pm et	5	$3.0K	2,505	2,470	+35	Down	+$36	03-10 16:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$2.3K	3,753	0	+3,753	Yes	-$2,300	06-12 12:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$2.1K	1,351	1,351	+0	No	+$129	04-08 19:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$2.1K	2,069	2,069	+0	No	-$302	06-18 13:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.0K	5,405	0	+5,405	Yes	-$2,000	05-05 14:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$2.0K	1,076	1,076	+0	No	-$21	03-11 14:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:35 UTC	4	$1.4K	733	732	+2	Up	+$19	03-17 17:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$1.4K	948	948	+0	No	-$95	03-11 14:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	3	$1.4K	2,940	200	+2,740	Yes	-$1,146	04-30 18:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 22:20 UTC	2	$1.2K	2,199	232	+1,967	Up	-$1,197	03-10 22:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 15:00 UTC	2	$1.1K	610	606	+3	Down	+$69	03-10 15:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 19:15 UTC	1	$1000	1,250	0	+1,250	Up	+$251	03-10 19:16
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-10 12:00 UTC	2	$980	587	584	+3	Up	+$23	03-10 14:56
bitcoin up or down march 10 10am et	2	$931	490	490	+1	Up	+$32	03-10 14:47
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	5	$899	532	532	+0	No	+$59	03-24 15:40
will bitcoin dip to 62k july 27 august 2 2026	1	$895	1,280	0	+1,280	No	+$386	07-31 22:35
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$836	509	509	+0	No	+$36	03-10 13:50
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$814	449	449	+0	No	+$14	03-10 20:03
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	1	$770	1,028	0	+1,028	Yes	+$258	04-02 20:13
no change in the selic rate after bank of brazils march 2026 meeting	8	$677	2,590	851	+1,739	No	-$429	03-18 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-31 22:35:47	will bitcoin dip to 62k july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	1,280	70¢	$895	0x29224a…
06-18 13:12:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2,069	43¢	$898	0xd60281…
06-12 12:59:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 12:55 UTC	Down	SELL	151	11¢	$17	0xc6eece…
06-12 12:58:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	151	32¢	$49	0x1d5cb0…
06-12 12:55:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,753	61¢	$2,300	0x35d9ec…
06-12 12:48:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,069	58¢	$1,200	0x0c34f2…
06-07 20:58:37	will bitcoin dip to 61k on june 7	No	BUY	682	59¢	$400	0x0780c1…
06-07 20:58:18	will bitcoin reach 63k on june 7	Yes	BUY	789	38¢	$300	0xa8a42b…
06-07 20:57:10	will bitcoin reach 64k on june 7	Yes	BUY	1,001	10¢	$100	0x806cec…
06-07 20:53:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	1,914	100¢	$1,908	0x1ebd3f…
05-29 14:19:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,914	81¢	$1,550	0xf37281…
05-28 11:15:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,559	100¢	$1,551	0x45d9e0…
05-17 23:27:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x9572c0…
05-17 23:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	153	8¢	$12	0x2bd9ad…
05-17 23:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0x898aac…
05-17 13:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	123	75¢	$92	0x0d1bfe…
05-17 13:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	56	80¢	$45	0xa88916…
05-17 13:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	88	78¢	$69	0x439477…
05-17 13:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	145	77¢	$111	0x06a7a9…
05-17 13:12:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	104	80¢	$83	0x6d844d…
05-17 13:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	104	76¢	$79	0x935304…
05-17 13:11:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	117	95¢	$112	0xe16d51…
05-12 14:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	130	59¢	$77	0x73c736…
05-12 14:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x097af3…
05-12 14:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0xc67883…
05-12 14:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x371e5d…
05-12 14:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x79fd43…
05-12 14:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xb0acd8…
05-05 14:03:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,405	37¢	$2,000	0xa5e8cc…
05-05 13:58:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,844	73¢	$2,089	0x5589a2…
04-30 20:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x8ca6c2…
04-30 20:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xd809d3…
04-30 20:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x0b97f6…
04-30 20:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	85	58¢	$49	0xc16adb…
04-30 20:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xf639c1…
04-30 20:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x15bbed…
04-30 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	96	68¢	$65	0xa7a6fe…
04-30 20:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xaa172a…
04-30 20:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x5a1f2b…
04-30 20:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x141a62…
04-30 19:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xd7b6e2…
04-30 19:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xc62627…
04-30 19:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xb75d72…
04-30 19:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x8b454a…
04-30 19:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xbec09e…
04-30 19:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	109	51¢	$56	0x0c86ef…
04-30 19:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x1225e1…
04-30 19:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xa39e4a…
04-30 19:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	89	55¢	$49	0xdd3e77…
04-30 19:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xe07e1a…
04-30 19:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x982aae…
04-30 19:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	192	16¢	$31	0xca7ff7…
04-30 19:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x25a335…
04-30 19:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	79	84¢	$67	0xb61040…
04-30 19:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xcc0638…
04-30 19:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x89ad8b…
04-30 19:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	49	95¢	$47	0xb041dc…
04-30 19:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe590dc…
04-30 19:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0xd9c55b…
04-30 19:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x94a2f4…
04-30 18:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	253	3¢	$8	0x0897d4…
04-30 18:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	253	40¢	$100	0x5292ed…
04-30 18:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	55	46¢	$25	0x7efe86…
04-30 18:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	143	53¢	$76	0x370a00…
04-30 18:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	27	42¢	$11	0x8bee5a…
04-30 18:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x72eb95…
04-30 18:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xfcfdb2…
04-30 18:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	249	49¢	$122	0x057b4e…
04-30 18:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0x1973a7…
04-30 18:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	19	96¢	$19	0xcff890…
04-30 18:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd9223f…
04-30 18:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x859c61…
04-30 18:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa0b42c…
04-30 18:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	86	47¢	$40	0x218a85…
04-30 18:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x897455…
04-30 18:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	38	70¢	$27	0x4ab4d3…
04-30 18:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x91490e…
04-30 18:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	45	59¢	$26	0x2ab1b5…
04-30 18:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x0b5d0d…
04-30 18:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	86	80¢	$68	0x57a0d2…
04-30 18:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xefaa92…
04-30 18:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x28ec8f…
04-30 18:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x1694c4…
04-30 18:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1156ac…
04-30 18:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x1c3048…
04-30 18:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x433e4d…
04-30 18:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x4fad0a…
04-30 18:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x52f0de…
04-30 18:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd7893c…
04-30 18:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe3a258…
04-30 18:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x070be2…
04-30 18:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x387446…
04-30 18:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	34	81¢	$27	0x2ac4b0…
04-30 18:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x995541…
04-30 18:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x42497e…
04-30 18:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe03887…
04-30 18:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xdf6a2c…
04-30 18:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5ad219…
04-30 18:35:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xb40c20…
04-30 18:32:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	820	59¢	$484	0x7fab47…