Ornery-Promenade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$130

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

87.3%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$19.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$104

Open exposure

$83

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-20 08:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 87% -$175

Other

43% 90% +$24

Politics

9% 100% +$17

Tech

4% 100% +$4

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-20).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No		-110	-$84	76¢	$-83	+$0	07-20 08:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	7	$948	620	340	+280	No	+$2	01-30 08:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$790	363	443	-80	No	$0	06-10 04:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	6	$685	358	358	+0	No	+$2	05-20 14:24
will the fed cutcutpause in the next three decisions octdecjan	5	$683	310	405	-95	Yes	-$5	01-21 08:39
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$665	540	140	+400	Yes	+$2	01-28 13:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	2	$653	337	337	+0	No	+$4	07-18 18:02
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	6	$623	315	315	+0	No	+$1	03-21 20:42
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	2	$615	310	310	+0	No	+$3	06-25 17:54
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	9	$599	408	408	+0	Yes	-$199	01-30 01:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	3	$599	306	306	+0	No	+$3	06-01 04:41
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	4	$585	527	60	+467	No	+$2	01-14 13:36
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	6	$573	296	296	+0	No	+$1	03-06 04:15
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	3	$537	427	112	+315	No	+$1	02-26 12:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	3	$480	249	249	+0	Yes	+$6	05-14 17:57
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$477	240	240	+0	No	+$1	03-07 00:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$451	229	229	+0	No	+$2	05-10 22:49
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$400	400	0	+400	Yes	+$0	02-02 07:14
Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$396	398	0	+398	No	+$2	02-04 07:42
will bitcoin dip to 86k january 19 25	1	$396	400	0	+400	No	+$4	01-26 02:53
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$388	400	0	+400	No	+$12	03-31 02:14
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?	5	$373	200	200	+0	No	+$2	01-23 07:21
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$369	370	0	+370	No	+$1	06-28 22:02
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?	4	$364	184	184	+0	No	+$0	01-26 09:47
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	8	$335	172	172	+0	No	+$0	01-23 16:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$307	160	160	+0	No	+$0	03-27 15:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$299	150	150	+0	No	+$0	03-30 07:08
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	2	$276	140	140	+0	No	+$1	03-15 22:46
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$274	140	140	+0	No	+$0	01-21 09:54
bitcoin above 86k on january 23	2	$248	140	140	+0	Yes	+$0	01-21 11:22
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$237	120	120	+0	No	+$0	03-29 11:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 08:32:30	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	76¢	$84	0x927594…
07-20 08:32:15	MagicBlock FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x988e3e…
07-18 18:02:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	337	97¢	$329	0xf33696…
07-03 12:05:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	337	96¢	$325	0xc15b04…
06-28 22:02:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x2c4db0…
06-28 22:02:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	231	100¢	$230	0x221b0b…
06-25 17:54:22	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	310	100¢	$309	0xc72052…
06-10 17:22:39	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	310	99¢	$306	0x3f132b…
06-10 04:43:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	363	99¢	$359	0xf820b0…
06-02 05:22:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	363	98¢	$355	0x703dd4…
06-01 04:41:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	306	98¢	$301	0x3bf41f…
05-25 02:23:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	262	97¢	$255	0x505ecf…
05-25 02:06:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0xaab8af…
05-20 14:24:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	358	96¢	$344	0x7698a4…
05-20 02:24:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	319	95¢	$305	0x2b17bb…
05-20 02:18:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x4c5212…
05-20 02:14:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf6a7ef…
05-20 01:55:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x576384…
05-20 01:51:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x12ed55…
05-14 17:57:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	249	98¢	$243	0x7c2f83…
05-10 22:49:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0xcd04c3…
05-09 12:58:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	115	98¢	$113	0xaa15d9…
05-09 09:12:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	114	98¢	$112	0x727000…
05-05 12:14:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	114	98¢	$111	0x399d6a…
05-05 05:01:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	184	95¢	$174	0xc63c68…
05-05 04:54:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0xad71d0…
05-04 21:45:50	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x7ef542…
05-04 21:16:54	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x03827e…
05-04 02:14:50	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xfa5623…
05-03 20:06:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x74da37…
04-26 09:33:24	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x53b9c5…
04-26 06:49:14	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x1f0afb…
04-26 05:57:42	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0b5462…
04-26 03:42:38	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x54d5c6…
04-16 16:13:58	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	120	92¢	$111	0xed7204…
04-11 11:36:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0xbeca3a…
04-11 11:36:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	46	74¢	$34	0xe8d440…
04-11 11:35:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	28	74¢	$20	0x3d2069…
04-09 14:03:15	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	110	77¢	$85	0xacb2b4…
04-09 07:31:05	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0x2dba5a…
04-09 07:29:59	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	110	75¢	$82	0xeec6e4…
04-09 07:28:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x62eaaf…
03-31 02:15:23	Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0x3c3bfc…
03-31 02:14:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	400	97¢	$388	0x2eb73b…
03-30 07:08:00	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x458c9a…
03-29 11:59:08	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x6d3261…
03-27 17:23:47	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x80ad20…
03-27 15:23:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	160	96¢	$154	0x6eb0ac…
03-27 13:25:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	160	96¢	$153	0x3c6d07…
03-27 13:24:39	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xbdbb61…
03-27 13:23:39	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xb3f802…
03-27 13:22:33	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x643b4d…
03-21 20:42:05	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd4dd1c…
03-19 21:52:09	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x76b653…
03-18 23:04:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	120	88¢	$106	0x9a88ad…
03-18 22:55:35	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0x57623a…
03-15 22:46:39	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	SELL	140	99¢	$138	0x633595…
03-14 12:33:51	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xff30fb…
03-14 12:32:25	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	140	98¢	$137	0xb19d26…
03-14 12:31:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0xdd1e55…
03-12 07:50:47	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x8c832c…
03-09 07:19:01	EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x616ca7…
03-09 07:18:45	EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x8e86c1…
03-07 00:59:57	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0x94d8f7…
03-06 04:15:57	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	SELL	110	97¢	$106	0xc56110…
03-05 08:05:03	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	SELL	57	99¢	$57	0x669e35…
03-04 10:57:23	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0xd6bdbe…
03-04 08:52:07	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0x750012…
03-04 03:00:33	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x6869e1…
03-04 02:59:45	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x01ee96…
03-04 02:59:29	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0x9c7d7c…
03-04 02:59:15	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	140	100¢	$139	0xa7675b…
02-27 06:20:28	will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xc9ef84…
02-27 01:37:46	will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe8dab3…
02-27 01:37:18	will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x16a355…
02-26 12:25:36	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	315	100¢	$314	0x4892d0…
02-26 10:56:44	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	110	100¢	$109	0xdd2dbb…
02-25 12:39:26	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x10b4ad…
02-25 02:41:54	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0xde0ce1…
02-25 01:53:04	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x56e2d1…
02-25 01:51:50	EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x3d2f77…
02-16 04:23:39	will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x565eaa…
02-12 17:44:33	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	SELL	96	96¢	$92	0x5f900e…
02-12 17:36:09	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x9235b8…
02-12 17:35:55	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$76	0x8579b0…
02-12 12:20:33	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xa7df2a…
02-12 12:19:53	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x650392…
02-12 12:19:13	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0xd94dd6…
02-12 12:18:41	will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc12cc3…
02-12 12:17:39	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x339a09…
02-11 16:50:19	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xeea99f…
02-07 01:12:45	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x809da0…
02-05 10:47:51	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xe8ccff…
02-05 01:35:45	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x3885fd…
02-04 15:33:53	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	60	91¢	$55	0x8c03ac…
02-04 08:07:36	Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0xcd4a49…
02-04 07:42:26	Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	BUY	398	99¢	$396	0xe7ee31…
02-04 07:42:10	Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x135c4a…
02-03 06:51:32	Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	70	94¢	$66	0x2ff012…
02-02 07:14:24	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0xcc73fa…