Giving-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.5%

Resolved

Trades

206

lifetime

Volume

$146.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$711

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 07-15 01:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Sports

48% 22% +$256

Politics

35% 33% -$6

Other

16% 35% -$237

Crypto

1% 100% +$4

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$10.3K	5,160	5,160	+0	No	-$6	04-15 05:00
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$6.9K	3,458	3,458	+0	No	-$2	04-20 04:39
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$5.5K	2,759	2,759	+0	No	-$4	04-18 10:07
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$5.2K	2,598	2,598	+0	No	-$1	03-16 06:28
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	4	$4.7K	2,373	2,373	+0	No	-$2	05-07 08:30
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$4.6K	2,295	2,295	+0	No	-$2	04-16 10:22
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	6	$3.7K	1,853	1,853	+0	open	—	07-15 01:14
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$3.6K	1,791	1,791	+0	open	—	06-28 03:26
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$3.4K	1,699	1,699	+0	No	-$2	03-17 04:11
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$3.3K	1,641	1,641	+0	No	-$2	05-28 05:32
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$3.0K	1,526	1,526	+0	open	—	06-06 08:28
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$2.7K	1,364	1,364	+0	No	-$1	06-04 05:44
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$2.6K	1,327	1,327	+0	No	-$1	03-18 04:30
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.6K	1,295	1,295	+0	Yes	-$1	05-08 08:32
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$2.6K	1,289	1,289	+0	No	-$1	05-09 07:42
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$2.6K	1,279	1,279	+0	open	—	05-11 03:41
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$2.6K	1,282	1,282	+0	No	-$1	05-08 06:18
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$2.6K	1,284	1,284	+0	open	—	05-07 11:02
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$2.6K	1,284	1,284	+0	open	—	05-09 03:26
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.6K	1,278	1,278	-0	No	-$1	05-05 08:01
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$2.5K	1,284	1,284	+0	open	—	05-06 09:55
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	2	$2.5K	1,270	1,270	+0	No	-$1	03-01 04:49
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.5K	1,274	1,274	+0	open	—	05-08 10:05
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$2.5K	1,240	1,240	+0	No	-$1	05-06 05:48
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$2.5K	1,238	1,238	+0	No	-$1	03-05 05:58
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.5K	1,242	1,242	+0	open	—	06-04 11:42
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$2.4K	1,219	1,219	+0	No	-$1	06-13 10:02
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$2.4K	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	06-13 07:16
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2.4K	1,208	1,208	+0	No	-$1	03-04 06:12
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,159	1,159	+0	No	-$1	05-05 10:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 01:14:10	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	251	100¢	$249	0x842280…
07-14 20:40:47	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	251	100¢	$250	0xa28da2…
07-10 16:32:40	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x0bfc3e…
07-10 13:10:28	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x2b9d97…
07-10 12:49:52	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x78b9a3…
07-10 12:39:25	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x0d8031…
07-10 12:37:19	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x6760c3…
07-10 12:19:01	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$124	0xe147a9…
07-10 08:23:19	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	193	100¢	$192	0xca8c6d…
07-09 10:51:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	163	99¢	$162	0x3a3ac7…
07-09 07:23:56	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	163	99¢	$162	0xe2861c…
07-08 06:53:38	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	251	99¢	$250	0xdeaae4…
07-08 04:53:55	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	251	100¢	$250	0x796c04…
07-07 06:22:28	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	258	99¢	$257	0xdf6da6…
07-07 04:20:47	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	258	99¢	$257	0x75aa72…
07-06 05:16:25	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	188	99¢	$186	0x190bdf…
07-06 03:09:22	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	188	99¢	$186	0x988b56…
07-03 05:17:56	Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	136	99¢	$135	0xc23490…
07-03 02:28:41	Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$135	0xd3ab1e…
06-28 07:52:01	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	534	100¢	$532	0x5fa6a6…
06-28 06:15:29	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	534	100¢	$532	0x6c02f2…
06-28 03:26:32	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	535	99¢	$531	0x9aa076…
06-28 01:15:55	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	535	99¢	$532	0xe3f5f8…
06-27 07:59:59	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	534	99¢	$530	0x0da11c…
06-27 06:34:52	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	534	99¢	$531	0x7f07fa…
06-27 05:35:13	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	536	100¢	$534	0x5629b3…
06-27 02:57:05	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	536	100¢	$535	0x7629e9…
06-21 09:22:07	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	533	99¢	$529	0x467cca…
06-21 07:50:14	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	533	99¢	$530	0x38b34a…
06-21 03:09:55	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	538	99¢	$534	0xb0f645…
06-21 01:47:01	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	538	99¢	$535	0x2bc9c5…
06-19 08:34:56	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	421	99¢	$418	0xb8357a…
06-19 07:24:38	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	421	99¢	$418	0x607af9…
06-19 03:44:23	Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	539	100¢	$536	0xe3f810…
06-19 01:56:11	Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	539	100¢	$537	0x0a0028…
06-14 12:14:12	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	537	99¢	$533	0x96ba74…
06-14 09:14:10	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	537	99¢	$534	0x225db0…
06-14 04:21:25	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	No	BUY	324	100¢	$323	0xba6498…
06-14 04:21:12	Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	875	100¢	$872	0x41bde8…
06-14 04:16:49	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	No	BUY	355	100¢	$353	0x430e45…
06-14 03:52:45	Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	875	100¢	$873	0xcd3d1b…
06-13 10:02:22	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,219	100¢	$1,215	0x47c15b…
06-13 07:56:51	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,219	100¢	$1,216	0x0ebbca…
06-13 07:16:13	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,220	99¢	$1,211	0x167c3f…
06-13 05:32:42	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,220	99¢	$1,212	0x50a932…
06-13 04:04:49	Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,135	99¢	$1,127	0x205077…
06-13 02:13:03	Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,135	99¢	$1,128	0x97261a…
06-12 14:13:18	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,123	99¢	$1,115	0xe07d3d…
06-12 08:39:45	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,123	99¢	$1,117	0x729ed7…
06-07 04:39:13	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,152	99¢	$1,143	0x349bed…
06-07 03:00:24	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,152	99¢	$1,144	0x4a0c6a…
06-06 08:28:45	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	974	99¢	$967	0x3339dc…
06-06 07:33:22	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	974	99¢	$968	0x8521b3…
06-04 11:42:30	Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,242	99¢	$1,232	0xa3dee9…
06-04 08:21:27	Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,242	99¢	$1,233	0x767663…
06-04 05:44:07	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	947	100¢	$944	0x0ee590…
06-04 03:37:58	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	947	100¢	$945	0x8b3ce2…
06-04 03:35:51	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	696	100¢	$694	0x0a94c7…
06-04 01:24:00	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	696	100¢	$694	0x8e1e26…
06-03 10:35:40	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1,099	100¢	$1,095	0x7cd702…
06-03 08:29:19	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1,099	100¢	$1,096	0x41f1d2…
05-31 08:58:33	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	417	100¢	$415	0xdbdee1…
05-31 07:14:29	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	417	100¢	$416	0xe47510…
05-28 11:58:16	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	362	99¢	$359	0x821bf1…
05-28 09:10:02	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	362	99¢	$359	0x2c0bae…
05-28 07:25:09	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	450	99¢	$446	0xac88b1…
05-28 05:43:40	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	450	99¢	$447	0xc7b3cd…
05-28 05:32:13	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	470	100¢	$469	0xef60e8…
05-28 03:36:20	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	470	100¢	$469	0x5a688b…
05-27 10:07:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	No	BUY	290	100¢	$290	0xc5a6b4…
05-27 06:34:38	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	719	100¢	$717	0xf458a5…
05-27 05:10:51	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	719	100¢	$718	0xf22b7f…
05-24 09:14:28	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	560	100¢	$558	0xd3196f…
05-24 07:40:10	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	560	100¢	$558	0x1f4a13…
05-24 07:14:30	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	647	99¢	$643	0x304ec2…
05-24 05:17:31	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	647	99¢	$644	0xa37d83…
05-24 04:38:00	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	588	99¢	$584	0x7b42f9…
05-24 02:54:26	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	588	99¢	$584	0x1d9979…
05-23 13:42:14	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?	No	BUY	517	100¢	$516	0x0b50c5…
05-23 10:39:07	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,171	100¢	$1,168	0x7ac267…
05-23 08:33:16	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,171	100¢	$1,169	0xed9724…
05-11 03:41:49	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,279	100¢	$1,275	0xf41e79…
05-11 01:29:06	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,279	100¢	$1,277	0x6d3bf0…
05-09 07:42:28	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,289	100¢	$1,285	0xd7d8e5…
05-09 05:46:16	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,289	100¢	$1,286	0x0782a7…
05-09 03:26:03	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,284	99¢	$1,275	0x792c1f…
05-09 02:16:59	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,284	99¢	$1,276	0x4a09e0…
05-08 10:05:00	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,274	99¢	$1,263	0xe65433…
05-08 08:58:38	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,274	99¢	$1,264	0x007eec…
05-08 08:32:34	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	1,295	99¢	$1,285	0x222b8c…
05-08 06:41:04	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,295	99¢	$1,287	0x09a6ce…
05-08 06:18:17	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,282	100¢	$1,275	0x593c14…
05-08 05:29:34	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,282	100¢	$1,276	0xc97e35…
05-07 11:02:30	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,284	99¢	$1,275	0x3dca61…
05-07 09:00:49	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,284	99¢	$1,276	0xc6a972…
05-07 08:30:51	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	1,275	100¢	$1,272	0xd06d97…
05-07 07:03:11	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,275	100¢	$1,273	0x198662…
05-06 09:55:46	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,284	99¢	$1,274	0x7dc651…
05-06 07:52:16	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,284	99¢	$1,275	0xfea62e…
05-06 07:36:58	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,256	99¢	$1,247	0x0b08bf…