Guilty-Dew — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$60

Unrealized P&L

+$239

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

475

lifetime

Volume

$46.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

$412

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-10 21:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

77% 100% +$7

Other

23% 100% +$53

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes		-371	$-599	100¢	$-371	+$228	06-07 22:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+45	$30	92¢	$41	+$11	05-29 21:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	31	$7.3K	5,405	5,436	-31	open	—	02-27 15:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	15	$5.2K	2,830	2,830	+0	open	—	04-18 03:01
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	26	$4.2K	5,806	0	+5,806	open	—	02-27 22:01
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	37	$4.0K	2,291	2,681	-390	open	—	04-06 03:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	16	$3.0K	1,651	1,651	+0	open	—	04-23 00:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	25	$2.6K	2,795	1,582	+1,213	open	—	04-28 02:52
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	41	$2.0K	1,943	1,843	+100	open	—	01-10 20:56
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	22	$1.8K	900	900	+0	open	—	03-17 15:49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	14	$1.7K	1,552	1,501	+51	open	—	01-15 18:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	10	$1.0K	700	700	+0	open	—	04-08 17:35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	31	$1.0K	1,075	693	+382	open	—	01-24 05:29
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	5	$1.0K	517	517	+0	open	—	03-26 19:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$851	460	460	+0	open	—	03-09 01:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	18	$830	374	566	-192	open	—	04-23 00:34
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	4	$804	408	408	+0	open	—	03-20 19:32
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	11	$757	367	739	-371	open	—	06-07 22:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	24	$678	976	0	+976	open	—	05-18 21:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$658	354	354	+0	open	—	04-06 03:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	6	$602	691	0	+691	open	—	05-01 22:27
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	4	$441	228	228	+0	Yes	+$2	05-10 18:29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	4	$439	520	180	+340	open	—	02-28 18:57
netanyahu arrested by march 31	5	$391	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 07:55
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$370	213	213	+0	open	—	03-08 21:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	8	$340	269	140	+128	Yes	+$53	05-11 02:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$306	160	160	+0	open	—	05-05 23:09
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$293	194	194	+0	open	—	02-28 06:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$228	334	0	+334	open	—	05-11 03:40
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$226	236	0	+236	open	—	03-09 01:58
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	6	$224	318	32	+286	open	—	06-09 22:10
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 15	3	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	01-15 11:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 21:16:09	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	BUY	80	83¢	$66	0xd676a8…
06-09 22:10:27	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x7433f1…
06-09 22:09:07	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x361a97…
06-07 22:51:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	529	100¢	$528	0x5c593e…
06-07 19:49:22	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	32	67¢	$21	0xad7b60…
06-07 19:44:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xce94d8…
06-07 19:43:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	199	72¢	$144	0x23ad65…
06-06 00:01:15	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	SELL	140	100¢	$139	0x6337c6…
06-01 17:23:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xcf755e…
06-01 17:09:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0xe2b8c1…
06-01 17:07:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	99	67¢	$66	0xa0176f…
05-30 01:52:20	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	92	22¢	$20	0xb1d7a9…
05-30 01:51:29	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0xf3baad…
05-30 01:47:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x11b3a4…
05-30 01:46:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0x8c7757…
05-29 22:09:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	99	21¢	$21	0x5416b2…
05-29 21:59:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x933a22…
05-29 21:52:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0x0a4c15…
05-29 21:51:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x412e4f…
05-29 21:11:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x8a5939…
05-29 21:10:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x183e30…
05-23 21:12:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	118	65¢	$77	0x02a19a…
05-23 11:25:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	60	60¢	$36	0xe1ea1f…
05-23 10:31:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	BUY	118	42¢	$50	0x13cbed…
05-23 10:28:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xcaa35a…
05-18 22:02:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	84¢	$60	0x5e48e1…
05-18 21:54:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0xd46075…
05-11 03:40:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x254e88…
05-11 02:39:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	294	68¢	$200	0xa15590…
05-11 02:32:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	123	95¢	$117	0xe78219…
05-10 18:29:20	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	SELL	59	97¢	$58	0xfba573…
05-10 18:28:56	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	SELL	168	97¢	$164	0xf1afd9…
05-10 04:52:07	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5333fe…
05-08 18:08:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x2ba8f3…
05-08 06:35:56	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0xb60472…
05-07 21:24:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0x33e275…
05-07 20:18:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	66	78¢	$52	0x9940c6…
05-07 20:10:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0xa5b821…
05-07 20:09:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3e8eda…
05-07 20:09:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x808eea…
05-07 20:02:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0xd20cae…
05-07 19:28:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x133202…
05-07 08:36:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x0483c4…
05-07 07:24:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xc6cfb6…
05-07 04:11:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x7dd2cc…
05-06 20:50:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xe4e111…
05-06 18:02:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x1ef2e0…
05-06 12:53:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf7210b…
05-06 12:48:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x3ca257…
05-06 09:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	49	91¢	$45	0x0ab76a…
05-05 23:30:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xf1b03a…
05-05 23:13:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xb715ec…
05-05 23:11:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xe9164e…
05-05 23:10:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x85f153…
05-05 23:09:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	160	97¢	$156	0x4fb6b7…
05-05 02:35:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	180	80¢	$144	0x85cde2…
05-03 23:47:56	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x167a67…
05-03 23:47:30	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x08b3ab…
05-01 22:27:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	299	88¢	$263	0xa80a02…
05-01 18:15:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x6d20b8…
05-01 18:14:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa34d47…
05-01 17:06:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	119	89¢	$106	0xa5bc1f…
05-01 17:04:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe5f11d…
05-01 16:24:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	171	84¢	$144	0x46ec59…
05-01 16:22:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x3f2559…
05-01 16:21:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xc93c42…
04-30 22:30:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xf838af…
04-30 22:01:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	28	80¢	$22	0xfd6e34…
04-30 21:42:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x6b280f…
04-30 21:29:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	80¢	$19	0x591e45…
04-30 21:17:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xd2695c…
04-30 21:02:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xfb8b76…
04-30 20:04:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xc0f2c6…
04-30 19:47:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0x76cfe8…
04-30 19:18:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x119c5e…
04-30 19:17:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0x7e8808…
04-28 02:52:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0x0907b9…
04-28 02:51:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x334b66…
04-28 02:24:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	215	65¢	$140	0x4cd95b…
04-27 08:30:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	770	65¢	$500	0x222ade…
04-24 20:17:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x4e577b…
04-23 17:58:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x964a71…
04-23 17:58:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x78929b…
04-23 17:56:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x661fc7…
04-23 17:54:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x840425…
04-23 17:52:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	473	85¢	$400	0x4fa20d…
04-23 09:01:36	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xf43fca…
04-23 08:42:24	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0xd0e644…
04-23 08:41:56	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xa92e8d…
04-23 08:14:38	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0xcac152…
04-23 01:01:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	142	53¢	$75	0xf93506…
04-23 00:34:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	SELL	566	100¢	$566	0x2f6540…
04-23 00:29:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	800	58¢	$464	0xe41528…
04-23 00:28:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	929	100¢	$928	0x750599…
04-22 14:54:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x723f5b…
04-22 14:53:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	46	48¢	$22	0xd244e2…
04-22 01:25:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	32	66¢	$21	0xdc22df…
04-22 00:57:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xa89059…
04-22 00:08:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x76c08b…
04-22 00:08:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xeeffc8…