Guilty-Dew — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$60

Unrealized P&L

+$32

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

554

lifetime

Volume

$47.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$260

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-22 08:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

76% 100% +$7

Other

24% 100% +$53

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes		+172	$150	97¢	$167	+$17	07-13 15:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+326	$78	29¢	$93	+$15	07-18 20:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	31	$7.3K	5,405	5,436	-31	open	—	02-27 15:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	15	$5.2K	2,830	2,830	+0	open	—	04-18 03:01
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	26	$4.2K	5,806	0	+5,806	open	—	02-27 22:01
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	37	$4.0K	2,291	2,681	-390	open	—	04-06 03:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	16	$3.0K	1,651	1,651	+0	open	—	04-23 00:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	25	$2.6K	2,795	1,582	+1,213	open	—	04-28 02:52
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	41	$2.0K	1,943	1,843	+100	open	—	01-10 20:56
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	22	$1.8K	900	900	+0	open	—	03-17 15:49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	14	$1.7K	1,552	1,501	+51	open	—	01-15 18:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	10	$1.0K	700	700	+0	open	—	04-08 17:35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	31	$1.0K	1,075	693	+382	open	—	01-24 05:29
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	5	$1.0K	517	517	+0	open	—	03-26 19:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$851	460	460	+0	open	—	03-09 01:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	18	$830	374	566	-192	open	—	04-23 00:34
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	4	$804	408	408	+0	open	—	03-20 19:32
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	11	$757	367	739	-371	open	—	06-07 22:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	24	$678	976	0	+976	open	—	05-18 21:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$658	354	354	+0	open	—	04-06 03:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	6	$602	691	0	+691	open	—	05-01 22:27
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	4	$441	228	228	+0	Yes	+$2	05-10 18:29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	4	$439	520	180	+340	open	—	02-28 18:57
netanyahu arrested by march 31	5	$391	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 07:55
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$370	213	213	+0	open	—	03-08 21:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	8	$340	269	140	+128	Yes	+$53	05-11 02:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$306	160	160	+0	open	—	05-05 23:09
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$293	194	194	+0	open	—	02-28 06:39
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	7	$241	318	318	+0	open	—	06-14 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$228	334	0	+334	open	—	05-11 03:40
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$226	236	0	+236	open	—	03-09 01:58
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 15	3	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	01-15 11:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 08:12:19	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xab3a4b…
07-22 08:06:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xceb65b…
07-22 08:06:16	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6d1972…
07-22 07:52:19	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xc1e99d…
07-18 20:38:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0xde8154…
07-17 00:43:17	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x85c8a0…
07-15 21:12:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0x727f44…
07-14 13:04:19	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	262	19¢	$50	0xd690a3…
07-14 12:41:25	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x615e0b…
07-14 12:40:14	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbe49ea…
07-14 12:38:52	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfbaf8f…
07-14 12:38:28	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xb31293…
07-14 12:37:38	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc02fff…
07-14 12:36:47	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb88522…
07-14 11:36:55	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcf3e99…
07-14 11:36:55	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3bc291…
07-14 11:36:53	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xdadb17…
07-14 11:36:53	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa1917c…
07-14 11:36:53	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9ad7e2…
07-14 10:51:22	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x313464…
07-14 10:40:19	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x9ea673…
07-14 10:33:53	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x089f86…
07-14 10:31:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe3beba…
07-14 10:31:02	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfba580…
07-14 10:31:02	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x207e40…
07-14 10:31:01	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfa7e64…
07-14 10:31:01	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb83e61…
07-14 10:31:01	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1e048c…
07-14 10:30:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xdf8448…
07-14 10:30:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8f1bf3…
07-14 10:30:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8c750a…
07-14 10:30:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x668e38…
07-14 10:30:55	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa8bc76…
07-14 10:30:53	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xef8c9b…
07-14 10:30:52	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6674b5…
07-14 10:30:49	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc45062…
07-14 10:30:49	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa9c5a8…
07-14 10:30:19	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd3748f…
07-14 10:30:14	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb54e70…
07-14 10:30:14	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x66c144…
07-14 10:30:13	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6c70a5…
07-14 10:30:10	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9e92ba…
07-14 10:30:10	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0b2ae5…
07-14 10:30:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf00ff6…
07-14 10:30:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb729d6…
07-14 10:30:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x759a28…
07-14 10:30:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x36310e…
07-14 10:30:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x16428d…
07-14 10:30:04	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa6be64…
07-14 10:30:02	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xcb6a27…
07-14 10:30:02	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x66dcfe…
07-14 10:29:59	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xaf3876…
07-14 10:29:59	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x0168be…
07-14 10:29:58	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xd73583…
07-14 10:29:58	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x52c751…
07-14 10:29:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x48b87b…
07-13 15:28:23	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x80bfe7…
07-13 15:21:53	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x8c5935…
07-13 15:16:37	Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0x56cece…
07-12 05:59:17	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xc0dbd5…
07-11 15:56:05	Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	24	24¢	$6	0x02cbe5…
07-05 14:33:35	Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xaaa7b3…
07-04 16:28:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xa130be…
06-21 17:25:11	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9d97a0…
06-18 15:04:23	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xa21e0a…
06-18 07:54:23	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x17208e…
06-17 18:53:47	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	SELL	115	90¢	$104	0xd23830…
06-16 17:21:47	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x667e7d…
06-14 23:21:19	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x770b4e…
06-14 22:13:07	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x05a366…
06-14 22:06:39	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	Yes	SELL	75	20¢	$15	0xa71e60…
06-14 22:06:34	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	286	6¢	$17	0x4c93f2…
06-14 20:00:45	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	BUY	35	53¢	$19	0x2c3068…
06-14 16:05:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	80¢	$95	0x01620f…
06-11 20:41:19	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x97380e…
06-11 19:32:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa8e954…
06-11 17:32:19	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	Yes	BUY	75	71¢	$53	0xceaf5f…
06-11 13:33:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x51c00c…
06-11 13:31:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x7dcc18…
06-10 21:16:09	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	BUY	80	83¢	$66	0xd676a8…
06-09 22:10:27	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x7433f1…
06-09 22:09:07	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x361a97…
06-07 22:51:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	529	100¢	$528	0x5c593e…
06-07 19:49:22	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	32	67¢	$21	0xad7b60…
06-07 19:44:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xce94d8…
06-07 19:43:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	199	72¢	$144	0x23ad65…
06-06 00:01:15	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	SELL	140	100¢	$139	0x6337c6…
06-01 17:23:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xcf755e…
06-01 17:09:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0xe2b8c1…
06-01 17:07:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	99	67¢	$66	0xa0176f…
05-30 01:52:20	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	92	22¢	$20	0xb1d7a9…
05-30 01:51:29	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0xf3baad…
05-30 01:47:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x11b3a4…
05-30 01:46:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0x8c7757…
05-29 22:09:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	99	21¢	$21	0x5416b2…
05-29 21:59:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x933a22…
05-29 21:52:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0x0a4c15…
05-29 21:51:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x412e4f…
05-29 21:11:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x8a5939…
05-29 21:10:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x183e30…