Delicious-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.15K

Unrealized P&L

-$59

Hit rate

22.8%

Resolved

521

Trades

2,183

lifetime

Volume

$85.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$64

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 10-25 20:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

45% 24% -$1,677

Politics

44% 19% -$1,024

Tech

7% 19% -$291

Crypto

2% 0% -$98

Sports

2% 17% -$64

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+110	$21	18¢	$19	-$2	10-03 14:41
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+150	$20	12¢	$19	-$1	08-30 21:43
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	+150	$48	6¢	$10	-$39	09-08 12:30
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+70	$10	14¢	$9	-$1	08-30 21:43
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	+30	$12	22¢	$6	-$5	08-30 21:42
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+70	$8	1¢	$1	-$8	10-03 14:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+0	$4	18¢	$0	-$4	07-27 08:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	3¢	$0	$0	09-04 16:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$3.0K	4,920	4,920	+0	No	-$36	06-14 22:31
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	12	$2.3K	1,374	1,374	+0	open	—	06-03 18:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	14	$2.2K	2,319	2,319	+0	No	-$3	05-27 00:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$0	05-22 15:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	15	$1.7K	2,720	2,720	+0	Yes	-$6	06-06 18:39
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	17	$1.4K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	06-05 01:15
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.4K	2,090	2,090	+0	Yes	-$146	06-21 11:16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	23	$1.2K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	06-06 09:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	21	$1.2K	2,030	2,030	+0	Yes	-$15	05-22 13:59
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	14	$1.1K	2,340	2,340	+0	No	-$40	06-10 18:38
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$1.1K	1,060	1,060	+0	Yes	+$0	06-06 23:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	22	$1.0K	1,415	1,415	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 14:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$970	603	603	+0	No	-$9	06-18 13:05
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$970	700	650	+50	Yes	-$2	06-04 12:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$952	1,720	1,720	+0	open	—	07-27 08:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	19	$952	3,400	3,400	+0	open	—	09-04 16:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$944	3,370	3,370	+0	No	+$0	05-05 20:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	12	$898	1,934	1,096	+838	No	-$168	05-20 15:22
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	9	$882	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-05 23:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	11	$874	1,070	1,070	+0	No	-$6	08-25 03:25
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	4	$874	1,420	1,420	+0	Yes	+$142	07-30 11:55
cs2 3dmax fut 2026 07 26	6	$872	800	800	+0	3DMAX	+$8	07-26 13:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$865	571	571	+0	No	-$79	05-11 11:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$858	1,700	1,700	+0	No	-$60	05-05 23:39
cs2 sin2 fut 2026 07 23	3	$826	560	560	+0	FUT Esports	+$3	07-23 14:42
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	15	$783	891	891	+0	Yes	-$71	06-23 13:22
will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	12	$779	500	500	+0	Yes	-$1	06-06 12:45
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	3	$767	540	540	+0	No	+$0	05-05 17:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	5	$756	450	450	+0	Yes	+$0	05-11 14:31
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	6	$737	1,116	1,116	+0	Natus Vincere	+$0	05-12 22:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 20:05:41	Jude Bellingham: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xce256c…
10-25 19:59:51	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x805107…
10-24 19:41:56	LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	62	56¢	$35	0xd1f441…
10-23 20:48:02	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0xd5643a…
10-23 19:01:42	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	45	35¢	$16	0x053618…
10-21 20:42:39	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	29	19¢	$5	0xf5957c…
10-20 18:31:39	ucl rom sba 2026 10 20 ags rodrigo mora 90124872	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xcbfccf…
10-19 18:44:33	epl tot cov 2026 10 19 ags omar marmoush 90086376	Yes	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x6672ac…
10-18 09:50:47	Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xc92f6f…
10-16 07:19:30	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xa33c62…
10-16 02:19:33	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	34¢	$22	0x13ab93…
10-15 16:18:16	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	270	9¢	$24	0xe31db3…
10-14 18:45:09	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 ags ousmane dembele 90038663	Yes	BUY	34	34¢	$12	0x44d780…
10-14 18:44:33	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xe5b094…
10-11 13:27:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	180	53¢	$95	0xcc4680…
10-09 11:18:19	cs2 vit prv 2026 10 09 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	29	38¢	$11	0x386763…
10-09 11:14:49	cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 10 09	Team Falcons	BUY	83	42¢	$35	0x42253e…
10-07 03:15:03	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xcc7043…
10-06 18:13:47	Mikel Oyarzabal: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x775b93…
10-06 18:12:45	Jude Bellingham: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0197ae…
10-06 13:14:46	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	15	37¢	$5	0xd5fa0d…
10-06 10:23:16	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	26¢	$4	0x3a3156…
10-05 01:45:46	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xc9dea4…
10-04 22:38:31	atp djokovi medvede 2026 10 05	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x6e9c6e…
10-04 08:55:08	Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Adolfo Vallejo	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xfb0af6…
10-03 16:57:38	Spain vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xd0e4f2…
10-03 14:41:57	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	110	19¢	$21	0xefef7e…
10-03 14:40:44	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	12¢	$8	0xe81f78…
10-03 14:39:33	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x22a4d0…
10-03 14:39:15	Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	28¢	$14	0x6920e6…
10-02 11:13:17	Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	Team Liquid	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x21c1bf…
10-01 12:10:53	val xlg ns1 2026 10 01 game1	XLG Gaming	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xc72836…
09-29 14:40:12	val kc3 nrg 2026 09 29 total games 2pt5	Over	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xc62e67…
09-29 12:59:00	afcq eth sen 2026 09 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	36	53¢	$19	0xabfc0b…
09-29 12:30:02	val kc3 nrg 2026 09 29 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0x0b69ac…
09-27 21:00:26	unl nor prt 2026 09 27 ags joao felix 90067728	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x973d39…
09-27 18:32:08	unl nor prt 2026 09 27 ags joao felix 90067728	Yes	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0xd7bc0a…
09-25 18:38:06	unl tur fra 2026 09 25 ags ousmane dembele 90038663	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xe3a4f7…
09-25 10:42:54	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Yes	SELL	363	17¢	$60	0xf18a0d…
09-20 19:47:22	FC Porto vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd0bc4a…
09-20 18:54:38	Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	70	16¢	$11	0xfecebd…
09-20 18:54:28	Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	8¢	$15	0xd1f3b0…
09-20 18:44:25	Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0xb89343…
09-20 18:43:34	Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x9bfe2d…
09-19 13:40:32	cs2 mouz furia 2026 09 19	MOUZ	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x31d556…
09-15 20:28:01	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	No	SELL	41	63¢	$26	0x509aa0…
09-09 01:01:19	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	29	19¢	$6	0x99555f…
09-08 21:49:34	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xd9eed3…
09-08 19:35:40	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x47138e…
09-08 19:22:00	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-08?	No	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x0cabbb…
09-08 19:15:55	Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x29de64…
09-08 12:30:54	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x3950d4…
09-08 03:31:54	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x0e5a2d…
09-07 15:42:52	US Open ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x7eb82d…
09-07 15:26:19	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x4834e3…
09-06 16:35:00	Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?	Yes	SELL	511	10¢	$51	0xa974d9…
09-06 16:32:22	US Open WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova	Linda Noskova	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x2d06ba…
09-06 13:10:27	Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	212	16¢	$34	0xc48456…
09-05 12:57:43	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	170	25¢	$42	0x9c2195…
09-05 03:11:15	Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	No	SELL	360	18¢	$65	0xfc1d72…
09-04 23:03:33	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	SELL	610	30¢	$183	0xd176be…
09-04 21:57:31	Will Namadi Umar Alhaji win the 2027 Jigawa State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	81	12¢	$10	0x5cca6f…
09-04 20:41:15	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	BUY	330	33¢	$109	0xf1c990…
09-04 18:17:58	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	130	20¢	$26	0x65a9e4…
09-04 16:18:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	562	14¢	$79	0x00058c…
09-04 16:17:54	will openais astra model debut as 1 text arena 20260901081919669	Yes	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0x93739a…
09-04 16:14:25	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	706	14¢	$99	0x030e4f…
09-04 15:57:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x9cfb22…
09-04 15:45:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	14¢	$2	0x0ac537…
09-04 15:44:15	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	14¢	$6	0x181025…
09-04 15:36:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	14¢	$140	0x0010c9…
09-04 15:34:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	14¢	$14	0x00dfe9…
09-04 15:34:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	14¢	$7	0x9f01e4…
09-04 15:34:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$70	0x44da79…
09-04 15:34:25	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xf981e0…
09-04 15:34:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x4dbb8b…
09-04 15:34:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0x04559d…
09-04 15:34:15	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xf83b42…
09-04 15:23:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xbec6be…
09-04 15:20:13	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0x9503ea…
09-04 15:20:09	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x15f3ec…
09-04 15:20:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xbac7fb…
09-04 15:18:28	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 4 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	270	2¢	$5	0x2a1bae…
09-04 15:02:27	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	321	14¢	$45	0xd1d334…
09-04 15:00:24	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,400	14¢	$476	0x8459ad…
09-04 12:17:39	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x8295a0…
09-04 10:39:06	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	106	38¢	$40	0xd52465…
09-03 23:23:22	Will Caliste Win the LEC 2026 Summer Split MVP?	No	SELL	21	17¢	$4	0x2cf98e…
09-03 23:22:43	Will Anders Öberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Norrbotten?	No	SELL	199	9¢	$18	0x322198…
09-03 22:23:04	Apple Announces Foldable iPhone at “Surprise and Shine” Event?	No	BUY	61	14¢	$9	0x528b6f…
09-03 21:23:27	Will "The Uprising" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	35	27¢	$9	0x48890f…
09-03 15:29:24	Will Caliste Win the LEC 2026 Summer Split MVP?	No	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0xe24577…
09-03 04:06:16	Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	No	SELL	86	15¢	$13	0x72f568…
09-03 01:19:27	Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x4757c9…
09-03 01:05:31	Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x37f129…
09-02 23:35:16	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	268	71¢	$190	0xcdc28c…
09-02 23:30:16	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	180	3¢	$6	0x642d97…
09-02 22:39:19	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	28¢	$15	0x0cc98a…
09-02 20:08:37	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 10 2026 1159 pm et	No	BUY	330	32¢	$106	0x9a0c97…
09-02 16:28:16	will openais astra model be released by september 2 2026	Yes	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0x278139…