Well-Worn-Bait — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.8%

Resolved

139

Trades

166

lifetime

Volume

$14.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$88

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-22 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 94% +$8

Other

32% 71% -$8

Politics

13% 60% +$0

Sports

4% 22% -$16

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	4	$446	223	223	+0	No	$0	05-27 11:31
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$262	131	131	+0	No	$0	02-07 03:53
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$261	131	131	+0	No	$0	02-13 03:22
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	2	$238	120	120	+0	open	—	05-23 11:33
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$232	117	117	+0	open	—	05-16 08:30
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$232	117	117	+0	open	—	05-16 08:09
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	2	$232	116	116	+0	No	$0	05-18 08:44
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$232	118	118	+0	open	—	05-19 11:36
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$228	114	114	+0	No	$0	05-06 11:58
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$224	113	113	+0	open	—	05-24 10:49
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$222	111	111	+0	No	$0	05-11 07:42
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$212	106	106	+0	No	$0	05-07 06:55
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$212	106	106	+0	open	—	05-14 05:31
Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$209	105	105	+0	No	$0	05-09 05:25
Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$208	104	104	+0	No	$0	05-09 05:06
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$168	84	84	+0	No	$0	05-30 04:29
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota	1	$136	136	0	+136	No	+$0	01-31 17:56
bitcoin above 74k on february 10	1	$132	132	0	+132	No	+$0	02-10 12:35
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on february 9	1	$131	132	0	+132	No	+$0	02-09 12:07
ethereum above 2400 on february 7	1	$131	131	0	+131	No	+$0	02-07 04:12
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 5	1	$131	131	0	+131	No	+$0	02-05 12:26
bitcoin above 64k on february 22	1	$131	131	0	+131	Yes	+$0	02-22 11:48
bitcoin above 64k on february 15	1	$131	131	0	+131	Yes	+$0	02-15 07:25
bitcoin above 72k on february 13	1	$131	131	0	+131	No	+$0	02-13 03:31
solana above 70 on february 12	1	$131	131	0	+131	Yes	+$0	02-12 12:12
ethereum above 2300 on february 11	1	$130	131	0	+131	No	+$0	02-11 03:42
ethereum above 2100 on february 25	1	$122	123	0	+123	No	+$0	02-25 06:36
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	02-28 11:27
googl above 370 on february 27 2026	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	02-27 07:02
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 380 399	1	$119	119	0	+119	No	+$0	03-10 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 17:40:21	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xb7c367…
10-22 17:39:47	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $392 in October?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x254fd6…
09-28 04:09:26	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5c2306…
09-28 04:09:23	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc2c20d…
08-11 07:54:07	will wti dip to 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xbd6e67…
07-10 09:51:34	will amzn dip to 220 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xdab653…
06-30 09:11:31	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xf0b67d…
05-31 05:04:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x53cf32…
05-30 04:39:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	77	99¢	$77	0x09639a…
05-30 04:34:35	Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	11	66¢	$8	0x7b28a9…
05-30 04:29:01	Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0x8bed25…
05-30 04:05:58	Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x594908…
05-29 10:43:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	85	100¢	$84	0xb1959b…
05-29 10:41:34	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1dd4d9…
05-28 12:11:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0xe0db15…
05-28 12:07:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4d7bef…
05-27 11:49:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x153b44…
05-27 11:39:42	Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1ba226…
05-27 11:31:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xd45381…
05-27 11:16:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xa99eaa…
05-26 08:32:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x059f9f…
05-26 08:24:25	LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs	E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x78e9a0…
05-26 08:18:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x27abac…
05-26 06:57:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x994c32…
05-25 07:39:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x9af6e7…
05-24 10:50:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x91546b…
05-24 10:49:05	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	113	99¢	$112	0x0deea9…
05-24 10:33:59	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0x1c5842…
05-23 11:40:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x97113b…
05-23 11:35:53	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x3eec88…
05-23 11:33:14	Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x3facd6…
05-23 10:55:01	Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xefb771…
05-22 10:53:20	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	119	100¢	$119	0xd72e58…
05-20 11:50:41	spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x78c800…
05-20 11:49:18	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Hugo Dellien	Hugo Dellien	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xd6d339…
05-19 11:38:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	117	100¢	$116	0x20c290…
05-19 11:36:31	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	118	98¢	$116	0x3c038d…
05-19 11:18:33	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$116	0x7a601a…
05-18 08:52:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0x25c78c…
05-18 08:44:00	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	SELL	116	100¢	$116	0xb65ed7…
05-18 08:27:23	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x4bb681…
05-17 11:47:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x14bdce…
05-16 08:38:59	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x39d247…
05-16 08:30:37	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	117	99¢	$116	0x6ddc35…
05-16 08:11:20	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	117	99¢	$116	0x6c0a34…
05-16 08:09:47	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	117	99¢	$116	0xaa30d8…
05-16 07:54:25	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	117	99¢	$116	0x801dd8…
05-15 07:32:32	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0xbdebff…
05-14 05:34:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x6f7253…
05-14 05:31:11	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xecbb86…
05-14 04:55:50	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xd581eb…
05-14 04:52:53	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	PlayTime	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x251922…
05-13 11:51:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xf77f59…
05-12 09:53:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$112	0x7a0df1…
05-11 07:46:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0xe649ab…
05-11 07:42:26	Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x5d53bb…
05-11 07:21:44	Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x926643…
05-10 08:16:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xa21b0b…
05-09 05:34:53	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xfe304c…
05-09 05:29:00	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x08620c…
05-09 05:25:51	Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$104	0x067d4b…
05-09 05:07:58	Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xdec8df…
05-09 05:06:55	Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0xccd83e…
05-09 04:22:38	Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xe8c347…
05-08 06:38:30	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $292 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xcbbdcf…
05-08 06:29:55	Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	Omega	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0xb4f5e8…
05-07 06:58:47	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 7?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x9b2683…
05-07 06:55:22	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x799048…
05-07 06:38:48	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xbfeb2d…
05-07 06:33:59	Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	DRX	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0xbf245c…
05-06 12:00:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x74b9e5…
05-06 11:58:32	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0xc91691…
05-06 11:42:20	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x94f8da…
05-05 02:59:14	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	114	99¢	$113	0x2e9aa9…
05-04 11:30:22	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x105e1f…
05-03 07:55:18	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0xc29c2e…
05-02 06:33:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x5f70cf…
05-02 05:05:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe8669a…
05-01 04:10:04	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $472.50 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x6fd116…
04-30 07:21:12	Will Google reach $400 in April?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0x387925…
04-29 03:58:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xf7767d…
04-28 03:55:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd0fab7…
04-28 03:54:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 28?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x043d27…
04-27 14:14:56	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xcba10d…
04-26 11:42:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x5f06d3…
04-26 11:38:12	Oilers vs. Ducks	Oilers	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x82ccf9…
04-26 10:29:36	Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x54906b…
04-25 04:17:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xd2b53d…
04-25 04:12:56	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	Team Secret Whales	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x6da6bc…
04-24 07:21:58	will the price of ethereum be between 2600 2700 on april 24	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x0cfd82…
04-22 03:31:54	bitcoin above 72k on april 22	Yes	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x0a930e…
04-21 11:36:26	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf3115a…
04-21 11:26:46	Abidjan: Maxime Chazal vs Millen Hurrion	Maxime Chazal	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x667a35…
04-20 13:04:36	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x0a71cf…
04-19 06:23:36	ethereum above 2600 on april 19	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x4345da…
04-19 06:18:54	New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x14b5f6…
04-17 02:01:10	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0x6ec0fe…
04-16 10:23:52	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xb2e3c9…
04-15 10:27:48	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 115 139	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x261854…
04-14 09:33:07	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 14	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xa82882…