Ultimate-Brushfire 0x392ae2…49262d
whale cold 2L streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.19K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.31K
Hit rate
58.1%
Resolved
252
Trades
2,080
lifetime
Volume
$167.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$81
Open exposure
$10.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-29
last 10-29 02:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Other
50% 59% +$1,254
Politics
50% 54% -$2,447
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +1,498 $929 80¢ $1.2K +$261 10-08 12:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +1,206 $716 98¢ $1.2K +$466 09-11 06:44
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +1,270 $624 88¢ $1.1K +$500 08-02 03:12
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,481 $887 74¢ $1.1K +$201 10-01 09:23
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,500 $816 68¢ $1.0K +$212 09-22 19:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,000 $760 90¢ $895 +$135 09-04 23:15
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +650 $504 86¢ $562 +$58 09-22 18:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +600 $402 78¢ $465 +$63 10-17 15:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +420 $206 94¢ $397 +$191 10-13 07:44
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +450 $251 84¢ $380 +$129 10-23 20:09
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +400 $211 81¢ $325 +$114 09-20 00:55
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +400 $304 78¢ $310 +$6 10-11 12:35
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +400 $252 68¢ $270 +$18 10-22 23:47
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +300 $205 74¢ $220 +$16 09-26 11:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +300 $195 72¢ $218 +$22 10-05 12:09
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +300 $207 70¢ $212 +$5 10-11 11:32
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +200 $140 68¢ $136 -$4 10-23 19:36
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +200 $134 64¢ $127 -$7 10-23 19:38
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +300 $117 42¢ $124 +$8 10-23 19:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? No +200 $110 55¢ $109 -$1 10-29 01:32
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes +154 $56 52¢ $80 +$24 10-19 08:20
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +100 $66 68¢ $68 +$2 09-22 16:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +300 $146 16¢ $50 -$96 10-21 14:40
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -30 -$25 86¢ $-26 -$1 06-15 04:15
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -30 -$22 86¢ $-26 -$3 06-12 09:55
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -20 -$16 97¢ $-19 -$4 07-06 11:16
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +60 $5 29¢ $17 +$12 09-14 06:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -30 -$5 44¢ $-13 -$8 06-15 04:14
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes -20 -$8 66¢ $-13 -$5 06-15 04:16
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -10 -$4 84¢ $-8 -$5 06-15 01:09