Substantial-Wait — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$320

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

62.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$369

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-06 05:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

75% 75% -$320

Politics

25% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	10-06 05:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	2	$904	490	490	+0	open	—	05-24 06:53
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?	2	$886	450	450	+0	open	—	05-15 05:37
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	3	$870	440	440	+0	No	+$0	05-14 04:40
israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	2	$859	462	462	+0	No	-$9	07-05 02:32
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	2	$849	455	455	+0	open	—	05-22 05:12
NATO dissolves before 2027?	3	$741	390	390	+0	open	—	05-19 11:22
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	2	$732	385	385	+0	open	—	05-21 04:34
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5)	1	$480	515	0	+515	Al Hazem SC	-$480	05-21 04:43
Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-2.5)	1	$451	475	0	+475	US Sassuolo Calcio	+$24	05-24 06:56
Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)	1	$448	480	0	+480	Dalian Yingbo FC	+$32	05-19 11:24
Spread: Al Fayha Saudi Club (-2.5)	1	$446	451	0	+451	Damac Saudi Club	+$5	05-15 05:43
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)	1	$435	445	0	+445	Valencia CF	+$10	05-14 05:16
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	1	$430	435	0	+435	RC Celta de Vigo	+$5	05-12 05:22
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)	1	$423	450	0	+450	Atalanta BC	+$27	05-22 05:19
tur riz gfk 2026 04 13 spread away 1pt5	1	$347	373	0	+373	Çaykur Rizespor	+$26	04-13 06:22
epl sun tot 2026 04 12 spread home 2pt5	1	$329	349	0	+349	Tottenham Hotspur FC	+$20	04-12 06:45
tur iba kas 2026 04 24 spread away 1pt5	1	$321	341	0	+341	Rams Başakşehir FK	+$20	04-24 06:22
US military draft authorized in 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	10-06 05:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 05:27:21	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x5d6d61…
07-05 02:32:31	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	462	92¢	$425	0x4d9c12…
07-05 01:42:10	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	BUY	462	94¢	$434	0x43629b…
05-24 06:56:15	Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-2.5)	US Sassuolo Calcio	BUY	475	95¢	$451	0xb8dcd1…
05-24 06:53:39	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	SELL	490	92¢	$452	0xcdb12a…
05-24 05:22:27	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	BUY	490	92¢	$452	0xd92941…
05-22 05:19:39	Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)	Atalanta BC	BUY	450	94¢	$423	0x9dea18…
05-22 05:12:14	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	SELL	455	93¢	$425	0x20ec76…
05-22 02:38:40	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	455	93¢	$424	0x4cb8a5…
05-21 04:43:33	Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5)	Al Taawoun Saudi Club	BUY	515	93¢	$480	0x97044a…
05-21 04:34:46	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	SELL	385	95¢	$367	0xddaaaf…
05-21 02:00:50	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	BUY	385	95¢	$366	0x066ff9…
05-19 11:24:26	Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)	Dalian Yingbo FC	BUY	480	93¢	$448	0x96a82b…
05-19 11:22:22	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x7f80be…
05-19 11:21:51	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	382	95¢	$363	0x9f9c2b…
05-19 09:50:59	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	BUY	390	95¢	$370	0x872798…
05-15 05:43:00	Spread: Al Fayha Saudi Club (-2.5)	Damac Saudi Club	BUY	451	99¢	$446	0xc0e63a…
05-15 05:37:51	Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?	No	SELL	450	99¢	$444	0x7650d2…
05-15 03:44:25	Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?	No	BUY	450	98¢	$443	0xf29412…
05-14 05:16:23	Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)	Valencia CF	BUY	445	98¢	$435	0xdf06ba…
05-14 04:40:10	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$39	0x7e64b4…
05-14 04:39:51	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$396	0x82d145…
05-14 02:20:15	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	440	99¢	$435	0x852582…
05-12 05:22:10	Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	RC Celta de Vigo	BUY	435	99¢	$430	0x000fbb…
04-24 06:22:16	tur iba kas 2026 04 24 spread away 1pt5	Rams Başakşehir FK	BUY	341	94¢	$321	0xa610fa…
04-13 06:22:31	tur riz gfk 2026 04 13 spread away 1pt5	Çaykur Rizespor	BUY	373	93¢	$347	0xc4eb05…
04-12 06:45:49	epl sun tot 2026 04 12 spread home 2pt5	Tottenham Hotspur FC	BUY	349	94¢	$329	0xc7c30f…