Realized P&L
+$3.20K
Unrealized P&L
+$340
Hit rate
87.8%
Resolved
231
Trades
2,986
lifetime
Volume
$108.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$36
Open exposure
$2.60K
21 positions
First seen
2026-04-07
last 10-27 07:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 78 days
Categories
Other
68% 47% +$3,543
Politics
31% 48% -$212
Tech
1% 50% +$0
Crypto
0% 0% -$135
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +800 $728 92¢ $740 +$12 10-16 14:49
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +1,064 $377 44¢ $474 +$97 10-12 19:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +300 $251 82¢ $244 -$7 10-23 12:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +619 $136 38¢ $238 +$103 10-18 12:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +250 $32 88¢ $221 +$189 06-23 09:34
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +210 $157 74¢ $154 -$3 10-02 22:57
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +128 $109 95¢ $122 +$12 08-19 14:49
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +114 $110 96¢ $109 -$1 10-20 10:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +100 $86 96¢ $96 +$10 10-14 06:41
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +100 $71 92¢ $92 +$21 07-20 19:08
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +50 $30 66¢ $33 +$3 09-26 12:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -22 -$18 96¢ $-21 -$3 04-30 07:03
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +100 $41 18¢ $18 -$23 09-22 18:06
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +100 $40 16¢ $16 -$24 09-21 12:43
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +250 $24 3¢ $8 -$16 10-02 10:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes -20 -$6 26¢ $-5 +$1 05-20 10:12
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -100 -$5 5¢ $-5 $0 05-05 16:44
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -30 -$1 5¢ $-2 $0 05-05 15:51
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -12 -$1 11¢ $-1 $0 05-05 16:26
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Yes +180 $32 1¢ $1 -$31 10-18 07:41
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -40 -$1 2¢ $-1 +$0 05-05 15:51