Numb-Commotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$421

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$211.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.50K

Open exposure

$5.42K

1 position

First seen

2026-04-13

last 07-02 11:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 100% +$5,046

Other

30% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+5,435	$5,000	100¢	$5.4K	+$421	06-19 22:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$33.4K	18,811	18,811	+0	open	—	05-01 07:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$26.9K	13,860	13,860	+0	No	+$627	05-04 15:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$19.9K	21,962	1,020	+20,942	open	—	05-13 14:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$19.1K	28,348	12,949	+15,399	open	—	05-26 14:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$18.5K	38,897	38,897	+0	open	—	06-03 06:52
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$15.0K	16,437	0	+16,437	open	—	05-17 17:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$13.8K	18,188	0	+18,188	No	+$4,418	05-04 15:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$12.0K	13,349	0	+13,349	open	—	05-21 17:39
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$8.2K	7,547	3,773	+3,773	open	—	06-25 13:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$7.5K	12,331	6,897	+5,435	open	—	06-19 22:08
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	1	$6.5K	7,335	0	+7,335	open	—	06-19 21:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$5.5K	5,721	0	+5,721	open	—	05-17 20:37
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$4.4K	4,749	0	+4,749	open	—	07-01 13:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$4.3K	7,464	7,464	+0	open	—	07-02 11:43
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$3.5K	4,649	0	+4,649	open	—	04-13 19:09
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	1	$3.1K	3,314	0	+3,314	open	—	04-26 13:50
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$2.7K	3,811	0	+3,811	open	—	06-15 12:34
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$2.0K	3,152	0	+3,152	open	—	07-01 20:48
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,943	0	+1,943	open	—	06-11 13:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.4K	890	890	+0	open	—	05-10 05:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.1K	649	649	+0	open	—	05-01 07:08
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	1	$1000	1,521	0	+1,521	open	—	05-17 11:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 11:43:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	7,464	8¢	$604	0x5b41a8…
07-01 20:48:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	878	57¢	$500	0x3c5904…
07-01 20:46:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,274	66¢	$1,500	0x307f81…
07-01 13:03:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	438	95¢	$414	0x86d427…
07-01 12:59:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	4,310	93¢	$4,000	0x466312…
06-25 13:35:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	7,464	50¢	$3,720	0xd5215d…
06-25 13:31:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3,773	99¢	$3,720	0xb6d1ee…
06-19 22:08:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0xe9a7a6…
06-19 21:56:38	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	7,335	89¢	$6,511	0x53f10d…
06-19 14:15:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6,897	7¢	$483	0x729a95…
06-17 17:58:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	7,547	60¢	$4,500	0x0091b5…
06-15 13:23:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6,897	29¢	$2,000	0x931fd4…
06-15 12:34:12	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3,811	71¢	$2,700	0xf962ef…
06-11 13:52:49	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,943	77¢	$1,500	0x7af959…
06-03 06:52:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25,000	0¢	$75	0x1e26d6…
06-03 04:56:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0xf9b3ce…
06-02 09:06:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13,897	99¢	$13,799	0xb8bbd2…
06-01 14:42:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,671	35¢	$3,000	0xcbe237…
06-01 12:25:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,226	29¢	$1,500	0x044d5b…
05-26 14:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20,609	77¢	$15,869	0xd5b505…
05-26 11:10:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,210	30¢	$1,563	0xe836ed…
05-21 17:39:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	13,349	90¢	$12,000	0x63ffb8…
05-17 20:37:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	5,721	96¢	$5,499	0xf400ca…
05-17 17:45:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,448	92¢	$5,000	0xea90a4…
05-17 14:15:21	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,488	91¢	$5,000	0xbe0203…
05-17 14:13:15	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,501	91¢	$5,000	0x98c8de…
05-17 11:08:10	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	Team Falcons	BUY	1,521	66¢	$1,000	0x050b7a…
05-17 11:00:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,738	8¢	$619	0xfa3128…
05-13 14:32:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,738	13¢	$1,006	0x14295a…
05-13 14:31:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,020	99¢	$1,007	0x19e0c3…
05-10 05:57:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21,962	86¢	$18,931	0xad56ca…
05-10 05:55:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	890	83¢	$741	0x1d34a9…
05-04 15:43:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	18,188	76¢	$13,770	0xa3dc39…
05-04 15:42:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	13,860	99¢	$13,771	0x5ee9af…
05-01 07:35:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	13,860	95¢	$13,144	0x0a8fe3…
05-01 07:08:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	649	100¢	$649	0x2b2f99…
05-01 07:08:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	9,508	100¢	$9,492	0xf6857c…
04-29 20:17:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	890	75¢	$668	0x67811a…
04-29 20:13:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,175	100¢	$1,170	0xf41ff8…
04-29 11:37:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5,027	100¢	$5,007	0x2cac6b…
04-26 13:50:20	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,314	93¢	$3,078	0xb8cc13…
04-26 13:49:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	3,100	99¢	$3,078	0xf1894e…
04-17 14:05:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	244	54¢	$132	0x74b924…
04-17 14:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	2,513	54¢	$1,357	0x861d68…
04-16 12:30:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	16,053	82¢	$13,158	0x737a6c…
04-13 19:12:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	649	77¢	$500	0xa83859…
04-13 19:09:45	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4,649	75¢	$3,500	0x72a77e…