Numb-Commotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.05K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$307.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.60K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 08-10 06:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$5,046

Other

28% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$33.4K	18,811	18,811	+0	open	—	05-01 07:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$26.9K	13,860	13,860	+0	No	+$627	05-04 15:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$19.9K	21,962	1,020	+20,942	open	—	05-13 14:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$19.1K	28,348	12,949	+15,399	open	—	05-26 14:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$18.5K	38,897	38,897	+0	open	—	06-03 06:52
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	8	$16.0K	8,837	8,837	+0	open	—	07-30 14:48
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$15.0K	16,437	0	+16,437	open	—	05-17 17:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$13.8K	18,188	0	+18,188	No	+$4,418	05-04 15:43
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	3	$13.7K	7,335	7,335	+0	open	—	07-11 07:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$12.0K	13,349	0	+13,349	open	—	05-21 17:39
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	4	$9.6K	6,490	6,490	+0	open	—	07-08 08:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$8.2K	7,547	3,773	+3,773	open	—	06-25 13:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$7.5K	12,331	6,897	+5,435	open	—	06-19 22:08
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	7	$6.5K	8,200	8,200	+0	open	—	07-13 14:30
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	3	$6.2K	7,405	230	+7,175	open	—	07-19 19:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$5.5K	5,721	0	+5,721	open	—	05-17 20:37
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	1	$5.3K	5,924	0	+5,924	open	—	07-29 21:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$5.2K	6,992	0	+6,992	open	—	07-30 15:04
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$5.1K	7,234	0	+7,234	open	—	07-11 07:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	2	$4.5K	6,010	0	+6,010	open	—	08-01 19:30
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	6	$4.5K	5,581	0	+5,581	open	—	07-13 14:24
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$4.4K	4,749	0	+4,749	open	—	07-01 13:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$4.4K	5,993	0	+5,993	open	—	08-06 10:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$4.3K	7,464	7,464	+0	open	—	07-02 11:43
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	1	$3.5K	5,194	0	+5,194	open	—	08-01 14:06
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$3.5K	4,649	0	+4,649	open	—	04-13 19:09
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	3	$3.4K	3,960	0	+3,960	open	—	07-30 15:01
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	1	$3.1K	3,314	0	+3,314	open	—	04-26 13:50
lol hle1 gen 2026 08 10	1	$2.8K	4,388	0	+4,388	open	—	08-10 06:18
will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	3	$2.5K	6,108	0	+6,108	open	—	08-01 17:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 06:18:00	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 10	Gen.G	BUY	4,388	64¢	$2,800	0x88d529…
08-09 18:30:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	2,384	22¢	$520	0xeabb74…
08-06 10:44:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	5,993	73¢	$4,400	0x4eb3be…
08-05 10:21:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,532	78¢	$1,200	0xe2c6b3…
08-05 07:58:57	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	BUY	1,907	52¢	$1,000	0x4bf69e…
08-05 07:57:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	2,384	59¢	$1,400	0x1536f8…
08-05 07:56:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	2,646	76¢	$2,000	0xbd3fa2…
08-02 05:54:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3,725	57¢	$2,129	0x322cd5…
08-01 19:30:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	2,860	70¢	$2,000	0x1b57f3…
08-01 17:26:50	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	2,259	44¢	$1,000	0x159eca…
08-01 15:33:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	3,149	79¢	$2,500	0x8dcaef…
08-01 14:59:56	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	1,446	35¢	$500	0x9c3503…
08-01 14:22:32	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	2,403	42¢	$1,000	0xcc6bdd…
08-01 14:06:02	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	5,194	67¢	$3,500	0x5f0099…
07-30 15:04:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6,992	75¢	$5,244	0x056f3f…
07-30 15:01:53	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	2,000	87¢	$1,746	0xbab025…
07-30 14:58:27	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	453	88¢	$400	0xae5a77…
07-30 14:50:21	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1,507	86¢	$1,300	0xa2d5f5…
07-30 14:48:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	8,792	99¢	$8,690	0xc30165…
07-29 21:44:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	5,924	89¢	$5,286	0x1cca20…
07-20 14:31:30	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	204	25¢	$50	0xae7b29…
07-20 13:53:46	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	743	27¢	$200	0xfa303d…
07-19 19:15:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	337	60¢	$202	0x6f841d…
07-19 19:15:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	230	87¢	$200	0x3571a2…
07-19 18:36:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xb16efa…
07-19 18:36:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	45	84¢	$38	0xbe97d4…
07-13 17:56:08	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	BUY	2,344	74¢	$1,740	0x6d0515…
07-13 14:47:44	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	4,548	79¢	$3,600	0x6394b7…
07-13 14:30:16	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	8,200	0¢	$21	0x190e21…
07-13 14:24:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x84e65a…
07-13 14:24:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	1,750	80¢	$1,400	0x73f5e0…
07-13 14:24:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	673	80¢	$538	0x239df7…
07-13 13:17:59	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0xe6e323…
07-13 12:43:53	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6d350e…
07-13 11:01:26	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	2,857	84¢	$2,400	0x7f5f61…
07-13 10:55:49	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	3,081	81¢	$2,500	0xc65750…
07-11 07:31:32	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	7,234	70¢	$5,064	0x4229bd…
07-11 07:30:29	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5,235	98¢	$5,146	0x0ff934…
07-08 09:24:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	2,687	77¢	$2,076	0x4aa738…
07-08 09:23:04	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	2,100	98¢	$2,056	0x971378…
07-08 08:58:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	7,543	79¢	$5,959	0xcc945b…
07-08 08:57:34	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	120	79¢	$94	0x8c5878…
07-08 08:57:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x79a899…
07-08 08:57:10	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	139	79¢	$110	0x3ba36d…
07-08 08:55:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	357	79¢	$282	0xfe691b…
07-08 08:54:53	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	17	79¢	$14	0x85628d…
07-08 08:51:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6,490	100¢	$6,483	0x4ef7fe…
07-08 08:19:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	1,286	85¢	$1,093	0xa6942f…
07-08 08:19:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0x036280…
07-08 08:19:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x52dec3…
07-08 08:19:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	1,500	85¢	$1,275	0x2a6ac8…
07-08 08:18:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	964	85¢	$820	0x8ba026…
07-06 22:57:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,250	16¢	$200	0xd9f456…
07-06 22:16:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,429	14¢	$200	0x4fb22f…
07-03 21:53:05	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	37	50¢	$19	0x865eb4…
07-03 21:53:05	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	255	50¢	$127	0x5b3d65…
07-03 21:53:04	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1b2924…
07-03 21:53:02	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf1d60c…
07-03 21:53:02	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xb20841…
07-03 21:53:02	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	2,400	50¢	$1,200	0x9ac926…
07-03 21:53:02	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x356753…
07-03 21:53:02	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1edf36…
07-03 21:48:23	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	45	50¢	$22	0x204a2a…
07-03 19:42:25	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4a5e45…
07-03 19:40:28	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x0e46c1…
07-03 19:40:28	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x05a262…
07-03 19:40:22	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0xe1078e…
07-03 19:40:11	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x7f40cd…
07-03 08:32:52	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3affd1…
07-03 07:33:52	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x12f838…
07-03 06:05:10	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	71	50¢	$35	0xea6188…
07-02 11:43:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	7,464	8¢	$604	0x5b41a8…
07-01 20:48:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	878	57¢	$500	0x3c5904…
07-01 20:46:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,274	66¢	$1,500	0x307f81…
07-01 13:03:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	438	95¢	$414	0x86d427…
07-01 12:59:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	4,310	93¢	$4,000	0x466312…
06-25 13:35:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	7,464	50¢	$3,720	0xd5215d…
06-25 13:31:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3,773	99¢	$3,720	0xb6d1ee…
06-19 22:08:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0xe9a7a6…
06-19 21:56:38	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	7,335	89¢	$6,511	0x53f10d…
06-19 14:15:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6,897	7¢	$483	0x729a95…
06-17 17:58:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	7,547	60¢	$4,500	0x0091b5…
06-15 13:23:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6,897	29¢	$2,000	0x931fd4…
06-15 12:34:12	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3,811	71¢	$2,700	0xf962ef…
06-11 13:52:49	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,943	77¢	$1,500	0x7af959…
06-03 06:52:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25,000	0¢	$75	0x1e26d6…
06-03 04:56:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0xf9b3ce…
06-02 09:06:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13,897	99¢	$13,799	0xb8bbd2…
06-01 14:42:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,671	35¢	$3,000	0xcbe237…
06-01 12:25:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,226	29¢	$1,500	0x044d5b…
05-26 14:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20,609	77¢	$15,869	0xd5b505…
05-26 11:10:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,210	30¢	$1,563	0xe836ed…
05-21 17:39:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	13,349	90¢	$12,000	0x63ffb8…
05-17 20:37:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	5,721	96¢	$5,499	0xf400ca…
05-17 17:45:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,448	92¢	$5,000	0xea90a4…
05-17 14:15:21	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,488	91¢	$5,000	0xbe0203…
05-17 14:13:15	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5,501	91¢	$5,000	0x98c8de…
05-17 11:08:10	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	Team Falcons	BUY	1,521	66¢	$1,000	0x050b7a…
05-17 11:00:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,738	8¢	$619	0xfa3128…
05-13 14:32:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,738	13¢	$1,006	0x14295a…