Lighthearted-Lollipop — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

169

lifetime

Volume

$2.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-07 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

95% — —

Other

3% 100% +$0

Crypto

1% 100% +$0

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-7	$-2	14¢	$-1	+$1	07-07 03:13
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	-2	$-1	55¢	$-1	+$0	07-03 00:28
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-1	$-0	31¢	$-0	+$0	07-07 02:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?	13	$1.2K	585,506	585,506	+0	open	—	01-06 17:52
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?	13	$721	360,404	360,404	+0	open	—	01-06 17:52
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?	4	$244	121,783	121,783	+0	open	—	01-05 16:36
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?	4	$202	100,960	100,960	+0	open	—	01-06 17:53
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-21 00:56
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-09 08:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$4	4	1	+3	open	—	04-22 16:45
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-26 18:59
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	03-17 01:46
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-09 07:33
will lamine yamal score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932025	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	06-14 02:24
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 4	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-02 10:42
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:32
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-09 11:28
cilia flores released from custody by january 9 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-09 12:09
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-13 20:44
will marco david rodrguez badilla win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-05 21:37
will colin farrell win best actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:35
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-15 21:33
will sophia chikirou win the paris mayor election	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-09 08:44
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 320 339	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-13 22:01
highest temperature in atlanta on january 5 43forbelow	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:56
will pierre yves bournazel win the paris mayor election	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-09 08:51
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-12 18:28
will orlando cruz qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-12 18:28
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:36
will rabi lamichhane be the next prime minister of nepal 993	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-09 08:21
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-02 10:43
another us strike on venezuela on january 3	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-04 19:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 03:13:31	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xf42618…
07-07 02:07:56	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xe25cc1…
07-06 19:22:44	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0x9a2c7f…
07-06 19:17:34	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xf3f3a2…
07-03 00:28:38	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xbcaad0…
06-26 19:59:16	will neymar score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108554	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x02b700…
06-22 04:20:35	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x11e25d…
06-15 15:35:04	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x373278…
06-14 02:24:43	will lamine yamal score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932025	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x08b616…
06-14 02:24:36	will lamine yamal score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932025	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa1b1e0…
05-23 04:29:45	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x485837…
05-19 06:10:15	Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe9c4af…
05-18 03:03:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7f880f…
05-06 02:45:12	Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1a0e39…
04-29 23:52:18	Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x8d8559…
04-22 16:45:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf7c10f…
04-22 15:34:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x03ba2d…
04-13 16:47:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x01347f…
04-12 06:10:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0xa29a4e…
04-12 06:10:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x57f767…
04-12 06:10:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x5070d9…
04-12 06:10:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x13ce9d…
04-12 06:10:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0xd5d6e8…
04-12 06:10:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x281b4d…
04-12 05:45:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe4d817…
04-10 21:38:25	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x962f04…
04-08 17:40:59	Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xdf7078…
04-08 17:10:59	Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x749820…
04-08 10:14:09	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd8b14b…
04-08 10:14:07	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x1e5a6a…
04-07 15:02:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4fee1a…
03-27 16:25:31	Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xb2e5ee…
03-27 08:35:03	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdb8e57…
03-27 07:39:57	will usdai launch a token by march 31	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xed2456…
03-26 21:04:27	Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfa04ee…
03-26 18:59:21	Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc610e1…
03-26 18:24:21	Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x3639cf…
03-26 00:28:23	Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd22232…
03-25 20:12:59	bitcoin above 72k on march 26	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x89fa1f…
03-25 14:27:53	Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0a51e4…
03-24 13:26:21	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x4e46e6…
03-24 13:21:27	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x84a36f…
03-24 13:21:25	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xe6a229…
03-24 13:21:25	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x76f133…
03-24 13:21:25	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x196cae…
03-24 13:21:23	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x665350…
03-24 13:21:21	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xb77404…
03-24 12:46:21	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xf225ca…
03-24 12:46:19	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x26dadc…
03-24 12:41:21	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x9ec494…
03-24 12:21:19	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x7c31b2…
03-24 05:00:59	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x562df7…
03-24 05:00:59	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x30c2fc…
03-24 04:45:57	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0xef5b0a…
03-24 04:35:59	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfd64ea…
03-23 17:25:29	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbe0939…
03-21 00:56:03	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x5355ff…
03-17 18:27:09	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1d31a4…
03-17 01:46:19	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa614bf…
03-17 01:36:27	Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x12cdde…
03-17 01:36:19	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x291a98…
03-17 01:31:27	Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3fe97f…
03-17 01:26:21	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb86608…
03-09 11:28:09	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xcc1785…
03-09 11:27:15	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x278bb3…
03-09 09:18:49	will spd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x789294…
03-09 08:57:43	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfbeafc…
03-09 08:57:41	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe7d0a1…
03-09 08:51:35	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc17deb…
03-09 08:51:15	will pierre yves bournazel win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x812b86…
03-09 08:46:57	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdb97e7…
03-09 08:44:47	will sophia chikirou win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x94b3e0…
03-09 08:27:33	Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd71396…
03-09 08:27:23	Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x85f53f…
03-09 08:21:35	will rabi lamichhane be the next prime minister of nepal 993	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x199364…
03-09 08:21:31	will kp sharma oli be the next prime minister of nepal	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6604fa…
03-09 08:12:17	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x36c732…
03-09 08:12:03	spx opens up or down on march 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x280f94…
03-09 07:52:45	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf01b81…
03-09 07:52:37	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7622e3…
03-09 07:33:21	Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb27140…
02-14 15:17:23	will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week 793	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x336c70…
02-13 20:44:49	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3f7ccb…
02-12 21:13:01	bitcoin above 60k on february 13	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x93e1dd…
02-05 07:40:45	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x90e11e…
02-05 07:40:39	will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82a8f4…
02-02 10:43:52	Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x800e36…
02-02 10:42:22	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x2f4322…
01-30 17:32:04	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x738918…
01-30 17:31:56	us strike on somalia by january 31 563	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xce3e51…
01-29 21:48:56	will trump talk to kim jong un in january	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfcc775…
01-27 19:17:21	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 80 99	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x96033d…
01-27 19:17:15	will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b6531…
01-26 20:40:03	elon musk of tweets march 2026 20 39	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaafb49…
01-26 20:39:57	Over $2M committed to the Fabric public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfc421a…
01-25 22:33:44	Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x39da66…
01-25 22:33:40	elon musk of tweets march 2026 520 539	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x28692c…
01-23 20:40:30	will elio win best animated feature film at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b4b6e…
01-23 20:40:22	will back to friends by sombr be the billboard 1 song for the week of january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7e6cd0…
01-21 20:29:58	will sanseit win the second most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x640959…