Lean-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,114

lifetime

Volume

$837.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$204

Open exposure

$288

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-05 12:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

50% 75% $-24

Other

45% 100% +$37

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No		-299	$-288	96¢	$-288	$-0	06-04 14:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	50	$29.3K	21,896	11,285	+10,610	open	—	02-03 23:57
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$15.5K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	03-04 19:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 27 2026	11	$11.1K	6,599	4,556	+2,042	open	—	01-27 09:36
will there be at least 800 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	24	$10.6K	10,620	0	+10,620	open	—	02-13 15:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	17	$10.6K	8,500	2,100	+6,400	open	—	03-05 12:04
maduro mugshot released by january 16	31	$10.2K	6,638	3,601	+3,037	open	—	01-17 05:12
will israel strike lebanon on march 4 2026	10	$10.0K	10,063	0	+10,063	open	—	03-04 13:45
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 10 2026	57	$10.0K	5,182	5,085	+97	open	—	03-08 22:42
will iran strike uae in march	11	$9.9K	9,919	0	+9,919	open	—	03-05 22:07
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	10	$9.4K	9,444	0	+9,444	open	—	02-05 18:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 14	11	$9.4K	4,712	4,718	-6	open	—	02-14 21:46
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$9.3K	9,400	0	+9,400	open	—	04-30 20:15
will trump say go ahead 3 times during healthcare event	4	$8.4K	4,198	4,197	+0	open	—	04-24 00:38
will trump talk to xi jinping in february	5	$8.0K	8,050	0	+8,050	open	—	02-04 17:16
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	12	$7.6K	7,651	0	+7,651	open	—	02-02 23:23
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	22	$7.3K	7,305	0	+7,305	open	—	02-01 15:14
will trump say hottest during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	7	$7.3K	7,267	0	+7,267	open	—	04-21 15:07
will israel strike gaza on january 27 2026	27	$7.3K	5,430	1,871	+3,559	open	—	01-28 12:35
military action against iran ends on march 25 2026	3	$7.2K	3,596	3,596	+0	open	—	03-25 13:58
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	4	$6.8K	6,824	0	+6,824	open	—	03-06 02:31
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	15	$6.7K	6,868	0	+6,868	open	—	02-12 01:59
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 3	8	$6.6K	6,627	0	+6,627	open	—	03-04 03:19
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	31	$6.6K	6,586	0	+6,586	open	—	02-15 22:02
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 26 2026	7	$6.4K	6,372	0	+6,372	open	—	03-26 15:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 13	16	$6.3K	6,830	0	+6,830	open	—	02-14 02:08
will israel strike greater beirut on march 4 2026	14	$6.2K	6,064	144	+5,920	open	—	03-04 08:09
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	6	$6.1K	6,100	0	+6,100	open	—	01-24 09:15
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 15	23	$6.1K	5,430	5,430	+0	open	—	02-14 03:18
will the us next strike iran on january 12 2026 et 456	3	$6.0K	3,020	3,020	+0	open	—	01-13 05:06
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?	3	$6.0K	6,023	0	+6,023	open	—	04-23 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 12:53:43	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xf57124…
06-05 11:18:37	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xdb7c70…
06-04 14:23:24	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	299	96¢	$288	0x42512a…
06-03 17:22:06	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x64f4c5…
06-03 17:21:43	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x63aaaa…
06-03 17:21:33	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x63857c…
06-03 17:21:15	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21, 2026?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0x3055d8…
06-02 16:59:40	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 1?	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x1039ac…
06-02 01:55:28	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd02813…
06-02 00:01:45	Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xe5b033…
06-02 00:01:17	Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x3208a4…
06-02 00:00:49	Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x855896…
06-02 00:00:30	Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x856e4f…
06-01 21:28:25	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x41c987…
06-01 19:00:27	Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x7047bc…
06-01 18:15:39	Services Down Parlay	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xd9c932…
06-01 17:18:42	Will Trump say "Trump Pool" or "Trump Lake" or "Trump Pond" in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x33e62c…
06-01 17:18:31	Will Trump say "Trump Accord" or "Trump Peace" in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0f6278…
06-01 17:18:22	Will Trump say "Trump Time" in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x45ca06…
06-01 17:18:10	Will Trump say "Trump Plan" in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4f85ff…
06-01 16:24:07	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0xc39cd5…
06-01 15:33:22	Will Trump say "Trump Kennedy Center" or "Trump-Kennedy Center" in May?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa5a682…
06-01 15:33:00	Will Trump say "Trump Grande" in May?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x48476f…
06-01 13:06:00	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	798	100¢	$797	0xae1c8b…
05-31 23:44:37	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xc45fbb…
05-31 23:44:33	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	223	100¢	$222	0xcbaf25…
05-31 23:44:30	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd1d28b…
05-31 23:44:24	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x5399d1…
05-31 23:44:21	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0x6a0958…
05-30 19:15:48	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xf2d120…
05-30 19:14:39	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	111	52¢	$58	0x38a07e…
05-30 19:05:56	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe64bcf…
05-30 15:41:43	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0xd664cf…
05-30 15:18:28	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0xea8832…
05-30 15:06:36	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x16ca88…
05-30 14:52:04	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x610331…
05-30 14:42:49	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0x016c0d…
05-30 14:13:48	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xf5f6fa…
05-30 14:10:37	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xa948cd…
05-30 10:13:32	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x15b710…
05-30 03:02:07	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x1e39a0…
05-30 03:01:50	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	98¢	$345	0xa10741…
05-30 02:06:02	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0xb9fb29…
05-30 01:10:04	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x0f5802…
05-30 01:09:22	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x844a71…
05-30 00:50:40	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xae691a…
05-30 00:48:59	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	417	99¢	$412	0xfe58c7…
05-29 23:26:24	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xce6da0…
05-29 22:55:03	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	900	99¢	$894	0x68cd15…
05-29 22:34:03	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 29?	Yes	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x2c13d3…
05-29 22:24:52	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 29?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x881643…
05-29 20:52:56	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xb5606e…
05-29 20:52:00	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	227	96¢	$218	0xffc2e5…
05-29 19:47:41	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	236	99¢	$234	0x00fce3…
05-29 19:47:38	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	157	99¢	$156	0x12fc10…
05-29 17:41:20	Services Down Parlay	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0xbc96cc…
05-28 23:41:02	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x1b9cea…
05-28 23:32:27	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa57de2…
05-28 23:32:24	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	97¢	$53	0xbdcc76…
05-28 23:32:15	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	134	97¢	$130	0xee7ddf…
05-28 23:18:45	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x7ca9ea…
05-28 22:38:11	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	56¢	$4	0xed043f…
05-28 22:25:45	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	SELL	39	74¢	$29	0x0e04be…
05-28 22:25:21	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0xafe806…
05-28 22:25:14	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x071ffb…
05-28 22:25:08	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	69¢	$18	0x58e3ee…
05-28 22:25:01	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x6e9211…
05-27 12:33:27	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3e46b3…
05-25 23:48:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x703c0e…
05-25 23:46:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x9673ef…
05-25 23:45:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x41a189…
05-25 20:56:49	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x97662b…
05-23 21:42:10	Will Uganda have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	672	98¢	$658	0x6a0b51…
05-23 21:32:20	Will Uganda have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0x1f055a…
05-23 17:16:50	Will Uganda have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x1da75e…
05-22 16:18:45	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x8e2030…
05-22 16:18:31	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1,005	100¢	$1,004	0x122b9b…
05-22 14:38:25	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,505	100¢	$1,503	0x3279fe…
05-22 14:37:57	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	No	BUY	441	100¢	$441	0xb2517d…
05-22 14:04:02	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,161	100¢	$2,159	0x667634…
05-22 13:37:17	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,615	100¢	$1,614	0x9dabc7…
05-22 13:36:56	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2,175	100¢	$2,173	0xc3d360…
05-22 13:36:46	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	856	100¢	$855	0xaf84ae…
05-22 12:23:38	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x15ed88…
05-22 12:06:22	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x64e9e5…
05-22 12:06:08	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x3db27f…
05-22 12:05:49	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xb5aacc…
05-22 11:52:17	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x5204c5…
05-22 11:50:34	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 17, 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x676eb8…
05-22 11:50:29	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 17, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x54786f…
05-22 11:47:02	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x324d7e…
05-22 11:46:53	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 17, 2026?	No	BUY	453	100¢	$451	0x6f751e…
05-22 11:46:50	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 17, 2026?	No	BUY	600	100¢	$597	0x607896…
05-22 11:46:41	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0x648231…
05-22 11:46:38	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xe54d9e…
05-22 11:46:32	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc58fee…
05-22 11:46:25	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x13e631…
05-22 11:46:24	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x9921a3…
05-22 11:46:18	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	272	100¢	$271	0xe385e8…
05-22 11:46:15	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	595	100¢	$592	0xed288c…