Lean-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,001

lifetime

Volume

$937.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$187

Open exposure

$106

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 17:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$37

Politics

47% 75% $-24

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 161 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?	No	+45	$39	98¢	$44	+$5	07-12 04:17
Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	+42	$36	80¢	$34	$-2	07-09 06:13
Will MrBeast get married by December 31?	Yes	+30	$28	93¢	$28	$-0	07-11 15:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	50	$29.3K	21,896	11,285	+10,610	open	—	02-03 23:57
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$15.5K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	03-04 19:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 27 2026	11	$11.1K	6,599	4,556	+2,042	open	—	01-27 09:36
will there be at least 800 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	24	$10.6K	10,620	0	+10,620	open	—	02-13 15:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	17	$10.6K	8,500	2,100	+6,400	open	—	03-05 12:04
maduro mugshot released by january 16	31	$10.2K	6,638	3,601	+3,037	open	—	01-17 05:12
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	12	$10.2K	5,180	5,180	+0	open	—	06-19 00:27
will israel strike lebanon on march 4 2026	10	$10.0K	10,063	0	+10,063	open	—	03-04 13:45
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 10 2026	57	$10.0K	5,182	5,085	+97	open	—	03-08 22:42
will iran strike uae in march	11	$9.9K	9,919	0	+9,919	open	—	03-05 22:07
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	10	$9.4K	9,444	0	+9,444	open	—	02-05 18:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 14	11	$9.4K	4,712	4,718	-6	open	—	02-14 21:46
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$9.3K	9,400	0	+9,400	open	—	04-30 20:15
will trump say go ahead 3 times during healthcare event	4	$8.4K	4,198	4,197	+0	open	—	04-24 00:38
will trump talk to xi jinping in february	5	$8.0K	8,050	0	+8,050	open	—	02-04 17:16
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	12	$7.6K	7,651	0	+7,651	open	—	02-02 23:23
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	22	$7.3K	7,305	0	+7,305	open	—	02-01 15:14
will trump say hottest during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	7	$7.3K	7,267	0	+7,267	open	—	04-21 15:07
will israel strike gaza on january 27 2026	27	$7.3K	5,430	1,871	+3,559	open	—	01-28 12:35
military action against iran ends on march 25 2026	3	$7.2K	3,596	3,596	+0	open	—	03-25 13:58
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	4	$6.8K	6,824	0	+6,824	open	—	03-06 02:31
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	15	$6.7K	6,868	0	+6,868	open	—	02-12 01:59
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 3	8	$6.6K	6,627	0	+6,627	open	—	03-04 03:19
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	31	$6.6K	6,586	0	+6,586	open	—	02-15 22:02
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 26 2026	7	$6.4K	6,372	0	+6,372	open	—	03-26 15:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 13	16	$6.3K	6,830	0	+6,830	open	—	02-14 02:08
andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	28	$6.3K	6,382	0	+6,382	open	—	06-22 13:39
will israel strike greater beirut on march 4 2026	14	$6.2K	6,064	144	+5,920	open	—	03-04 08:09
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	6	$6.1K	6,100	0	+6,100	open	—	01-24 09:15
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 15	23	$6.1K	5,430	5,430	+0	open	—	02-14 03:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 17:15:33	will john healey be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533224	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x31d5ff…
07-20 13:41:06	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xaab376…
07-20 13:39:48	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78a9d8…
07-20 13:28:54	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$57	0x23b5ba…
07-20 13:28:33	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x21d7b0…
07-20 03:46:43	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe716dc…
07-20 03:46:42	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x819527…
07-20 03:46:39	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x0afa06…
07-20 03:46:39	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x0862ca…
07-20 03:46:13	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x08c5a5…
07-20 03:46:12	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	78	98¢	$77	0x4fdd4c…
07-20 03:46:09	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	210	98¢	$206	0xe4a066…
07-20 03:45:40	will anyone say free during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117504 137	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2c1c9b…
07-20 03:45:16	will anyone say password during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117502 839	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x0ca925…
07-20 03:45:07	will anyone say possible or impossible during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117500	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x348ea5…
07-20 03:45:03	will anyone say possible or impossible during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117500	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xbc6e95…
07-20 03:44:49	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x054526…
07-20 03:44:46	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x2524af…
07-20 03:44:43	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	124	96¢	$119	0x98fc41…
07-20 03:43:48	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	Yes	BUY	195	100¢	$195	0xffb5ef…
07-20 03:43:46	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	Yes	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x16d85f…
07-20 03:43:21	will anyone say god 5 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117497	Yes	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x7e7070…
07-20 03:42:01	will anyone say morty 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117496	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0xf96049…
07-20 03:41:58	will anyone say morty 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117496	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x275049…
07-20 03:41:33	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117495	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x523f0f…
07-20 03:41:31	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117495	No	BUY	130	96¢	$124	0x98cb91…
07-19 21:31:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0xc53edb…
07-19 18:55:03	f1 belgian grand prix h2h hamilton vs piastri 2026 07 19	Hamilton	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x538b0c…
07-19 18:54:36	f1 belgian grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 07 19	Lindblad	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x38b957…
07-19 16:26:31	will aristotle self certify sports event contracts by december 31 2026 20260630144618249	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x50e4a8…
07-19 14:09:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xcee471…
07-18 13:03:06	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x088755…
07-17 01:37:00	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x1f7fce…
07-16 22:39:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x4a7596…
07-16 22:08:55	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	37	85¢	$31	0x2dacb9…
07-16 20:55:07	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	96	11¢	$11	0xd2a629…
07-16 17:51:28	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x54c9b7…
07-16 14:03:14	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb98a47…
07-14 10:57:10	will slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians 20260623184301114	No	BUY	456	100¢	$455	0x51df3a…
07-14 04:04:58	will trump say biden or obama 3 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133746	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0xa3d540…
07-14 04:04:05	will trump say grand prix 5 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133744	No	BUY	199	100¢	$199	0xc5e161…
07-14 01:12:23	will trump say million billion or trillion 20 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133743	No	BUY	223	100¢	$223	0xa48c99…
07-13 23:31:31	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0xffc585…
07-13 18:49:26	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751769	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x7f8c6b…
07-13 18:21:07	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	SELL	55	1¢	$1	0x91aa46…
07-13 18:20:50	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xfbab51…
07-13 18:10:46	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x549c1c…
07-13 18:08:49	paris heat wave by july 31 20260630174856599	Yes	BUY	194	100¢	$194	0xa31f92…
07-13 18:08:47	paris heat wave by july 31 20260630174856599	Yes	BUY	248	100¢	$247	0x52d61a…
07-13 16:10:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	139	100¢	$138	0x0f6dbe…
07-13 16:08:28	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	761	100¢	$761	0xac7568…
07-13 15:48:46	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x17627b…
07-13 15:25:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x08686c…
07-13 14:36:10	will trump speak to mark carney in july 20260626154217437	Yes	BUY	159	100¢	$158	0xdcbdce…
07-13 14:33:17	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0xf61b5d…
07-13 14:29:38	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0xf67f49…
07-13 14:28:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xfbde8e…
07-13 14:28:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x52e32b…
07-13 14:28:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x511d66…
07-13 14:28:38	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x761394…
07-13 14:27:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb125e0…
07-13 06:58:04	will anyone say drama during love island e35 20260710151358749	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xfb4716…
07-13 06:57:53	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x50ae44…
07-13 06:57:49	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x7bd14e…
07-13 02:08:28	will anyone say husband during love island e35 20260710151358761	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xace216…
07-13 02:08:11	will anyone say wedding during love island e35 20260710151358760	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1b4a1f…
07-13 02:08:10	will anyone say wedding during love island e35 20260710151358760	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x25e069…
07-13 02:07:32	will anyone say cute or cutie during love island e35 20260710151358758	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3207c1…
07-13 02:07:10	will anyone say insta or instagram during love island e35 20260710151358754	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x19d586…
07-13 02:05:50	will anyone say relationship during love island e35 20260710151358753	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc2d192…
07-13 02:05:49	will anyone say relationship during love island e35 20260710151358753	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x5c90fb…
07-13 02:05:26	will anyone say red flag during love island e35 20260710151358751	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x70d719…
07-13 02:05:23	will anyone say green flag during love island e35 20260710151358750	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9bd0b6…
07-13 02:05:08	will anyone say drama during love island e35 20260710151358749	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7d6684…
07-13 02:05:05	will anyone say drama during love island e35 20260710151358749	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0xa2b6d0…
07-13 02:04:43	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xba9800…
07-13 02:04:43	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x826a47…
07-13 02:04:14	will anyone say vibe 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358747	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x734636…
07-13 02:02:31	will love island episode not air 20260710151056193	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xbd43b2…
07-13 02:02:02	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358746	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xb8847b…
07-13 02:01:43	will anyone say casa 10 times during love island e35 20260710151358745	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc5adb4…
07-13 02:01:41	will anyone say casa 10 times during love island e35 20260710151358745	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xed5f97…
07-13 02:00:07	will anyone say villa 10 times during love island e35 20260710151358744	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd1c36c…
07-13 02:00:01	will anyone say villa 10 times during love island e35 20260710151358744	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x761563…
07-13 01:58:22	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751769	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xee1b1c…
07-12 16:48:32	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751769	No	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x1302f6…
07-12 14:55:02	paris heat wave by july 31 20260630174856599	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x4347d2…
07-12 06:39:23	will anyone say facebook during love island e34 20260709160751779	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x057797…
07-12 06:38:32	will anyone say crush during love island e34 20260709160751775	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4fd0eb…
07-12 06:37:26	will anyone say crush during love island e34 20260709160751775	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x738a7a…
07-12 06:36:49	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751771	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf739a3…
07-12 06:36:37	will anyone say crush during love island e34 20260709160751775	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe6432c…
07-12 06:36:28	will anyone say relationship during love island e34 20260709160751776	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc0aed5…
07-12 06:36:16	will anyone say tinder during love island e34 20260709160751778	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf6a809…
07-12 06:36:14	will anyone say tinder during love island e34 20260709160751778	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x1c754a…
07-12 06:36:02	will anyone say wife during love island e34 20260709160751785	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0xe05ea7…
07-12 06:35:53	will anyone say wedding during love island e34 20260709160751783	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x017c9c…
07-12 04:17:44	Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7cdafc…
07-12 02:23:22	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751771	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x79126b…
07-12 02:23:11	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751769	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x377802…