Lean-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$29

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

1,368

Trades

6,033

lifetime

Volume

$1.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$174

Open exposure

$312

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 01:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 208 days

Categories

Other

52% 97% +$11,265

Politics

44% 94% +$1,106

Tech

2% 100% +$155

Sports

1% 97% +$498

Crypto

1% 100% +$70

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$61

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No		+200	$173	96¢	$193	+$20	10-06 22:03
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No		+130	$110	92¢	$120	+$10	08-04 07:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	50	$29.3K	21,896	11,285	+10,610	Yes	+$20	02-03 23:57
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$15.5K	15,500	0	+15,500	No	+$18	03-04 19:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 27 2026	11	$11.1K	6,599	4,556	+2,042	Yes	+$93	01-27 09:36
will there be at least 800 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	24	$10.6K	10,620	0	+10,620	Yes	+$35	02-13 15:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	17	$10.6K	8,500	2,100	+6,400	Yes	+$12	03-05 12:04
maduro mugshot released by january 16	31	$10.2K	6,638	3,601	+3,037	No	+$9	01-17 05:12
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	12	$10.2K	5,180	5,180	+0	No	+$120	06-19 00:27
will israel strike lebanon on march 4 2026	10	$10.0K	10,063	0	+10,063	Yes	+$15	03-04 13:45
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 10 2026	57	$10.0K	5,182	5,085	+97	No	+$226	03-08 22:42
will iran strike uae in march	11	$9.9K	9,919	0	+9,919	Yes	+$29	03-05 22:07
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	10	$9.4K	9,444	0	+9,444	Yes	+$21	02-05 18:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 14	11	$9.4K	4,712	4,718	-6	Yes	+$41	02-14 21:46
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$9.3K	9,400	0	+9,400	No	+$59	04-30 20:15
will trump say go ahead 3 times during healthcare event	4	$8.4K	4,198	4,197	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 00:38
will trump talk to xi jinping in february	5	$8.0K	8,050	0	+8,050	Yes	+$8	02-04 17:16
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	12	$7.6K	7,651	0	+7,651	Yes	+$18	02-02 23:23
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	22	$7.3K	7,305	0	+7,305	Yes	+$10	02-01 15:14
will trump say hottest during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	7	$7.3K	7,267	0	+7,267	Yes	+$9	04-21 15:07
will israel strike gaza on january 27 2026	27	$7.3K	5,430	1,871	+3,559	Yes	+$42	01-28 12:35
military action against iran ends on march 25 2026	3	$7.2K	3,596	3,596	+0	No	+$0	03-25 13:58
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?	31	$6.8K	3,618	3,618	+0	Yes	+$380	09-15 01:47
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	4	$6.8K	6,824	0	+6,824	Yes	+$7	03-06 02:31
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	15	$6.7K	6,868	0	+6,868	Yes	+$128	02-12 01:59
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 3	8	$6.6K	6,627	0	+6,627	Yes	+$23	03-04 03:19
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	31	$6.6K	6,586	0	+6,586	Yes	+$16	02-15 22:02
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 26 2026	7	$6.4K	6,372	0	+6,372	Yes	+$21	03-26 15:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 13	16	$6.3K	6,830	0	+6,830	Yes	+$488	02-14 02:08
andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	28	$6.3K	6,382	0	+6,382	Yes	+$48	06-22 13:39
will israel strike greater beirut on march 4 2026	14	$6.2K	6,064	144	+5,920	Yes	+$11	03-04 08:09
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	6	$6.1K	6,100	0	+6,100	Yes	+$6	01-24 09:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:52:21	Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0xe43a4a…
10-27 14:27:45	Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xb2f0a1…
10-26 01:37:30	Will Donald Trump visit Mississippi in 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0x1c4d5e…
10-26 00:17:26	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6f53a6…
10-26 00:17:23	Will UKMTO publish 20 or more notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8e56cd…
10-26 00:17:18	Will UKMTO publish 16-19 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x741547…
10-26 00:17:14	Will UKMTO publish 12-15 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x66f64a…
10-26 00:17:12	Will UKMTO publish 12-15 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x63b3f9…
10-26 00:17:08	Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x724308…
10-26 00:16:54	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2d1912…
10-26 00:16:53	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x58f725…
10-26 00:16:30	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf5cb9d…
10-26 00:16:27	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xac8a93…
10-26 00:16:26	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x85579c…
10-26 00:16:23	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7d3520…
10-26 00:16:21	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0xa5777a…
10-26 00:16:18	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd6e9c2…
10-26 00:15:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x285aa0…
10-25 23:13:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x74ab5b…
10-25 23:12:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x615264…
10-25 23:12:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc9319a…
10-25 23:07:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	220	15¢	$33	0x453c8b…
10-25 23:07:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$5	0xb43572…
10-25 22:51:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xeb8ed8…
10-25 22:46:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x2cb89d…
10-25 22:46:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$19	0xb78c74…
10-25 22:28:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x9e47b1…
10-25 22:27:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x9f7ceb…
10-25 21:42:18	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x9f6a2b…
10-25 21:42:11	Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf2cb4e…
10-25 21:42:08	Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x62f4d4…
10-25 21:41:59	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0f1e1f…
10-25 21:41:53	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x033f9c…
10-25 20:40:42	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xc9322d…
10-25 20:40:35	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x9839a2…
10-25 20:39:59	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x95f5b8…
10-25 20:39:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf9a9ea…
10-25 20:39:30	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x97c02e…
10-25 18:30:17	Will UKMTO publish 16-19 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xba3e95…
10-25 18:30:12	Will UKMTO publish 16-19 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa0a480…
10-25 18:24:41	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xf04ce7…
10-25 17:56:12	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x02cd4c…
10-25 16:59:18	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x61dd54…
10-25 16:46:17	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaf68bc…
10-25 16:45:38	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x22cf37…
10-25 16:42:03	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x86561b…
10-25 16:42:03	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2d24be…
10-25 16:40:45	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x123129…
10-25 16:39:02	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x661378…
10-25 16:39:02	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2a88da…
10-25 16:37:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x6305b8…
10-25 16:37:06	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x983beb…
10-25 16:36:05	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x42a4d2…
10-25 16:35:15	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xf6f159…
10-25 14:50:44	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x022ae8…
10-25 07:17:33	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x4cb55b…
10-25 05:05:54	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xfcc33f…
10-25 00:33:20	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 23?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x9d2d3a…
10-21 22:06:23	Screwworm National Emergency declared by October 31?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xa9168c…
10-21 20:50:44	Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x630cbe…
10-21 20:50:41	Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x7101d8…
10-21 17:44:53	Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x867851…
10-20 18:15:05	Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x40357c…
10-18 14:18:45	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xabe0bc…
10-17 22:46:44	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x643762…
10-17 22:46:39	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?	No	BUY	73	98¢	$71	0x4b7e77…
10-13 02:11:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x3b89a9…
10-12 23:57:29	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe6bb88…
10-11 22:56:24	Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xec93d5…
10-11 18:44:12	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x656f53…
10-11 18:44:06	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0x4f3459…
10-11 18:44:04	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x517627…
10-11 17:19:13	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x476a16…
10-11 17:19:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xf0ffaf…
10-11 17:19:03	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x86b803…
10-11 17:19:00	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x1b64ed…
10-11 17:18:55	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0xf051bd…
10-11 17:18:52	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x285618…
10-11 07:21:36	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x9ae158…
10-11 06:06:44	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	75¢	$14	0x11abe9…
10-11 06:06:33	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	75¢	$16	0x45eed4…
10-11 06:06:27	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc2502b…
10-11 03:37:36	Will "Rigged" be in the headlines this week?	No	BUY	181	100¢	$181	0xdb5c8d…
10-11 03:37:24	Will "Trade" be in the headlines this week?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x77da5d…
10-11 03:34:21	Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xcb4d40…
10-11 03:33:59	Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x8e40de…
10-11 03:33:41	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x0855e4…
10-11 03:33:00	Will a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xcd34af…
10-11 03:32:35	Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x265885…
10-11 03:28:54	Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?	No	BUY	274	99¢	$272	0x2b2fc0…
10-11 03:28:44	Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb226a1…
10-11 02:53:02	Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0xb701a7…
10-11 00:40:24	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x9abba5…
10-11 00:38:45	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x87d36b…
10-11 00:38:42	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x143f4a…
10-11 00:38:39	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x95f022…
10-11 00:38:31	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xc2e887…
10-10 20:10:51	Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	423	100¢	$422	0x240dcd…
10-10 05:23:25	Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xf41d85…
10-10 01:56:17	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 9?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$83	0x233069…