Lean-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,051

lifetime

Volume

$947.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$188

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-08 23:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$37

Politics

47% 75% $-24

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 161 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	50	$29.3K	21,896	11,285	+10,610	open	—	02-03 23:57
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$15.5K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	03-04 19:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 27 2026	11	$11.1K	6,599	4,556	+2,042	open	—	01-27 09:36
will there be at least 800 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	24	$10.6K	10,620	0	+10,620	open	—	02-13 15:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	17	$10.6K	8,500	2,100	+6,400	open	—	03-05 12:04
maduro mugshot released by january 16	31	$10.2K	6,638	3,601	+3,037	open	—	01-17 05:12
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	12	$10.2K	5,180	5,180	+0	open	—	06-19 00:27
will israel strike lebanon on march 4 2026	10	$10.0K	10,063	0	+10,063	open	—	03-04 13:45
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 10 2026	57	$10.0K	5,182	5,085	+97	open	—	03-08 22:42
will iran strike uae in march	11	$9.9K	9,919	0	+9,919	open	—	03-05 22:07
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	10	$9.4K	9,444	0	+9,444	open	—	02-05 18:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 14	11	$9.4K	4,712	4,718	-6	open	—	02-14 21:46
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$9.3K	9,400	0	+9,400	open	—	04-30 20:15
will trump say go ahead 3 times during healthcare event	4	$8.4K	4,198	4,197	+0	open	—	04-24 00:38
will trump talk to xi jinping in february	5	$8.0K	8,050	0	+8,050	open	—	02-04 17:16
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	12	$7.6K	7,651	0	+7,651	open	—	02-02 23:23
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	22	$7.3K	7,305	0	+7,305	open	—	02-01 15:14
will trump say hottest during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	7	$7.3K	7,267	0	+7,267	open	—	04-21 15:07
will israel strike gaza on january 27 2026	27	$7.3K	5,430	1,871	+3,559	open	—	01-28 12:35
military action against iran ends on march 25 2026	3	$7.2K	3,596	3,596	+0	open	—	03-25 13:58
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	4	$6.8K	6,824	0	+6,824	open	—	03-06 02:31
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	15	$6.7K	6,868	0	+6,868	open	—	02-12 01:59
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 3	8	$6.6K	6,627	0	+6,627	open	—	03-04 03:19
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	31	$6.6K	6,586	0	+6,586	open	—	02-15 22:02
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 26 2026	7	$6.4K	6,372	0	+6,372	open	—	03-26 15:13
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 13	16	$6.3K	6,830	0	+6,830	open	—	02-14 02:08
andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	28	$6.3K	6,382	0	+6,382	open	—	06-22 13:39
will israel strike greater beirut on march 4 2026	14	$6.2K	6,064	144	+5,920	open	—	03-04 08:09
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	6	$6.1K	6,100	0	+6,100	open	—	01-24 09:15
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 15	23	$6.1K	5,430	5,430	+0	open	—	02-14 03:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 23:58:31	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	BUY	1,300	100¢	$1,299	0x824ff0…
08-08 23:23:49	will there be at least 2450 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423297	Yes	BUY	335	100¢	$335	0x5c35aa…
08-08 23:23:40	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	BUY	187	100¢	$187	0x6cf961…
08-07 13:07:46	trump declassifies new ufo files by august 31 20260710184334567	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3ba069…
08-06 13:51:02	Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0xcee784…
08-06 04:19:48	Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	75¢	$71	0x964ccf…
08-06 04:17:59	Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	96¢	$143	0x64dae6…
08-06 04:17:57	Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x695972…
08-06 04:17:56	Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe6d5b9…
08-06 04:17:56	Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x830620…
08-05 21:45:42	will there be at least 15000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618910	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x655cd0…
08-05 21:44:54	will there be at least 20000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618911	Yes	BUY	55	72¢	$39	0x501d17…
08-05 21:44:14	will there be at least 15000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618910	Yes	BUY	67	89¢	$60	0xed980a…
08-05 21:25:54	another nato article 4 invocation by december 31 2026 20260726214511854	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x8e3a80…
08-05 21:25:24	another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xd2eca2…
08-05 21:25:20	another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x2463fa…
08-05 21:25:18	another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xb9a60b…
08-04 07:40:06	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x61ced9…
07-31 23:21:03	will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260727213922573	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x0a105f…
07-31 22:41:11	will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260727213922573	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x9e7d0f…
07-31 14:07:57	will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260727213922573	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb3eb9b…
07-31 14:07:48	will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the us by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5e792c…
07-30 02:58:44	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on july 29 20260724224947396	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x699878…
07-29 13:57:59	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x05d27e…
07-28 14:03:43	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x70416b…
07-27 22:52:07	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on july 27 20260724224947394	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc695c5…
07-27 16:44:13	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xc8dbe3…
07-27 16:31:31	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x7b8d2e…
07-27 16:01:03	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x8776a3…
07-27 15:59:13	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x45a283…
07-26 17:39:46	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xc53d30…
07-26 15:22:31	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0x6c62a9…
07-26 02:06:00	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x52bf51…
07-25 20:07:06	fda approves otsuka centanafadine 07 24 2026	Yes	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0xe31759…
07-25 20:04:09	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xd9af13…
07-24 19:46:40	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0x068b57…
07-23 23:01:45	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xc60657…
07-22 14:29:16	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x08e39d…
07-21 21:06:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	SELL	2,078	100¢	$2,076	0xf66428…
07-21 18:54:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	325	99¢	$321	0x60dfe6…
07-21 18:53:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$988	0x8835c8…
07-21 18:53:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	333	99¢	$329	0x013ab1…
07-21 18:53:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	214	99¢	$211	0xa0c8e7…
07-21 18:53:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	206	98¢	$202	0x6b8b07…
07-21 16:10:55	will trump say future president in july 20260629200910961	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xfec04d…
07-21 16:10:43	will trump say breaking news in july 20260629200910966	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x124325…
07-21 15:16:54	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x377248…
07-20 17:15:33	will john healey be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533224	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x31d5ff…
07-20 13:41:06	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xaab376…
07-20 13:39:48	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78a9d8…
07-20 13:28:54	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$57	0x23b5ba…
07-20 13:28:33	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x21d7b0…
07-20 03:46:43	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe716dc…
07-20 03:46:42	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x819527…
07-20 03:46:39	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x0afa06…
07-20 03:46:39	will anyone say hell during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117508 278	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x0862ca…
07-20 03:46:13	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x08c5a5…
07-20 03:46:12	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	78	98¢	$77	0x4fdd4c…
07-20 03:46:09	will anyone say brain during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117506 749	No	BUY	210	98¢	$206	0xe4a066…
07-20 03:45:40	will anyone say free during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117504 137	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2c1c9b…
07-20 03:45:16	will anyone say password during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117502 839	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x0ca925…
07-20 03:45:07	will anyone say possible or impossible during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117500	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x348ea5…
07-20 03:45:03	will anyone say possible or impossible during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117500	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xbc6e95…
07-20 03:44:49	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x054526…
07-20 03:44:46	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x2524af…
07-20 03:44:43	will anyone say alien during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117499	No	BUY	124	96¢	$119	0x98fc41…
07-20 03:43:48	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	Yes	BUY	195	100¢	$195	0xffb5ef…
07-20 03:43:46	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	Yes	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x16d85f…
07-20 03:43:21	will anyone say god 5 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117497	Yes	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x7e7070…
07-20 03:42:01	will anyone say morty 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117496	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0xf96049…
07-20 03:41:58	will anyone say morty 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117496	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x275049…
07-20 03:41:33	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117495	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x523f0f…
07-20 03:41:31	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117495	No	BUY	130	96¢	$124	0x98cb91…
07-19 21:31:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0xc53edb…
07-19 18:55:03	f1 belgian grand prix h2h hamilton vs piastri 2026 07 19	Hamilton	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x538b0c…
07-19 18:54:36	f1 belgian grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 07 19	Lindblad	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x38b957…
07-19 16:26:31	will aristotle self certify sports event contracts by december 31 2026 20260630144618249	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x50e4a8…
07-19 14:09:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xcee471…
07-18 13:03:06	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x088755…
07-17 01:37:00	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x1f7fce…
07-16 22:39:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x4a7596…
07-16 22:08:55	will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145717	Yes	BUY	37	85¢	$31	0x2dacb9…
07-16 20:55:07	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	96	11¢	$11	0xd2a629…
07-16 17:51:28	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x54c9b7…
07-16 14:03:14	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb98a47…
07-14 10:57:10	will slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians 20260623184301114	No	BUY	456	100¢	$455	0x51df3a…
07-14 04:04:58	will trump say biden or obama 3 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133746	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0xa3d540…
07-14 04:04:05	will trump say grand prix 5 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133744	No	BUY	199	100¢	$199	0xc5e161…
07-14 01:12:23	will trump say million billion or trillion 20 times at freedom 250 showcase 20260713143133743	No	BUY	223	100¢	$223	0xa48c99…
07-13 23:31:31	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0xffc585…
07-13 18:49:26	will anyone say chat 5 times during love island e34 20260709160751769	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x7f8c6b…
07-13 18:21:07	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	SELL	55	1¢	$1	0x91aa46…
07-13 18:20:50	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	No	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xfbab51…
07-13 18:10:46	will anyone say bombshell 5 times during love island e35 20260710151358748	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x549c1c…
07-13 18:08:49	paris heat wave by july 31 20260630174856599	Yes	BUY	194	100¢	$194	0xa31f92…
07-13 18:08:47	paris heat wave by july 31 20260630174856599	Yes	BUY	248	100¢	$247	0x52d61a…
07-13 16:10:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	139	100¢	$138	0x0f6dbe…
07-13 16:08:28	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	761	100¢	$761	0xac7568…
07-13 15:48:46	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x17627b…
07-13 15:25:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x08686c…