Lawful-Warrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$77

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

99.1%

Resolved

138

Trades

175

lifetime

Volume

$6.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$71

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 15:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

46% 100% +$45

Other

30% 97% +$18

Crypto

19% 100% +$14

Tech

6% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+68	$66	93¢	$63	-$3	09-24 20:00
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+8	$6	99¢	$8	+$2	10-29 15:16
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+8	$7	1¢	$0	-$7	10-27 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$973	505	505	+0	open	—	10-28 11:44
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$512	269	253	+15	open	—	10-29 15:16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$335	171	171	+0	No	+$7	09-01 12:20
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$201	203	0	+203	Yes	+$2	09-10 13:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$201	203	0	+203	No	+$2	09-04 03:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	6	$192	152	42	+110	No	+$1	09-30 18:42
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$191	222	0	+222	No	+$32	10-25 23:08
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$174	176	0	+176	No	+$2	08-17 03:36
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$173	174	0	+174	No	+$1	08-15 21:47
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$172	172	0	+172	Yes	+$0	08-05 13:56
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$170	176	0	+176	Yes	+$5	08-20 13:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$167	168	0	+168	No	+$1	08-10 20:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$167	174	0	+174	No	+$7	08-12 16:11
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$166	166	0	+166	No	+$0	08-06 11:34
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	1	$165	165	0	+165	Yes	+$0	09-17 18:21
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$163	167	0	+167	No	+$4	08-09 13:23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$158	158	0	+158	No	+$1	05-30 10:56
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$147	148	0	+148	Yes	+$1	05-26 18:03
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$147	153	0	+153	Yes	+$6	05-21 01:25
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$145	271	104	+167	Yes	+$3	10-25 23:24
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$138	69	69	+0	Yes	+$0	09-30 14:05
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$134	134	0	+134	No	+$0	10-05 00:21
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	2	$126	64	64	+0	No	+$0	10-13 18:43
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	07-31 09:01
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$66	68	0	+68	open	—	09-24 20:00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$2	10-03 04:41
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	06-29 14:02
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	05-05 07:21
Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	09-29 13:17
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	09-19 11:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:16:07	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	253	99¢	$250	0xd08347…
10-29 09:30:13	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	261	98¢	$256	0x311081…
10-28 11:44:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	259	98¢	$254	0x29f48b…
10-28 07:20:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	259	97¢	$251	0x882428…
10-28 06:16:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	246	98¢	$240	0xdbaf3c…
10-27 20:55:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	246	93¢	$228	0xc89cdc…
10-27 14:04:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xc80f79…
10-27 13:14:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x66cc5f…
10-25 23:24:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0xc0304a…
10-25 23:08:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	222	86¢	$191	0x1da95c…
10-23 05:06:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	104	22¢	$23	0xff909a…
10-20 22:16:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	169	20¢	$34	0x72b648…
10-16 16:52:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x22d6d3…
10-15 02:32:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	65	84¢	$54	0x864a21…
10-13 18:43:40	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x70542f…
10-13 06:55:08	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xd60fb8…
10-11 19:00:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	64	98¢	$63	0xe506e2…
10-09 13:09:21	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x9fe804…
10-05 00:21:25	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0x464978…
10-04 20:27:16	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9bf799…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xbdbbeb…
09-30 18:42:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xadd21d…
09-30 14:05:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0xfcf186…
09-30 14:03:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x580e30…
09-30 13:54:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x4972d7…
09-30 12:27:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x39ac4f…
09-30 11:54:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x71a4c8…
09-30 04:01:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x36636e…
09-29 13:19:44	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa19756…
09-29 13:18:29	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3ea048…
09-29 13:17:12	Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x72fbfd…
09-28 23:17:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0xcfa38e…
09-24 20:00:45	Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	68	98¢	$66	0x2b567c…
09-23 18:05:23	Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xe8f9d8…
09-22 12:27:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9873a0…
09-19 11:53:14	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa9c3b5…
09-17 19:39:40	Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8fad9d…
09-17 18:21:15	Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x939a1d…
09-16 16:17:20	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xce8709…
09-16 05:43:12	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb462b5…
09-14 14:30:36	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x450e93…
09-11 03:24:57	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8c9c83…
09-10 13:56:12	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$201	0x42d67a…
09-04 03:05:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$201	0xf563e3…
09-01 12:20:45	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x947eca…
08-29 01:33:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd8f02e…
08-27 13:59:01	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8106a9…
08-26 20:41:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x24a970…
08-26 17:29:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	171	96¢	$164	0x462de3…
08-26 10:41:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf450ad…
08-25 17:53:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc9725d…
08-23 05:11:33	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe872bd…
08-21 05:12:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x46e4e1…
08-20 22:47:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x609c9d…
08-20 13:28:15	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x49edac…
08-20 12:35:00	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	106	97¢	$103	0xec9667…
08-17 03:36:33	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	176	99¢	$174	0x1fd80a…
08-15 21:47:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	174	100¢	$173	0x874950…
08-12 16:11:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	174	96¢	$167	0xe7c319…
08-11 04:53:27	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd77c69…
08-10 20:05:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	168	99¢	$167	0xcf4153…
08-09 13:23:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	167	98¢	$163	0xd7edfc…
08-09 11:24:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdd32a8…
08-06 11:34:54	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x657c97…
08-06 00:59:24	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x9cea50…
08-05 13:56:42	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xe919c8…
08-03 16:32:35	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7992b0…
07-31 09:01:51	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x8ac48b…
07-31 00:51:38	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xeeb640…
07-30 06:44:18	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd9938a…
07-28 21:55:56	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd2bec4…
07-26 01:14:33	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8f73ca…
07-25 13:57:43	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xb6753d…
07-25 07:10:01	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5011a5…
07-24 03:33:39	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfc1b56…
07-23 01:42:54	will xauusd dip to 3300 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5cc49e…
07-21 07:50:07	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf98bd8…
07-20 17:41:49	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9c3fcc…
07-16 17:31:20	will wti dip to 50 in july 2026 844	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaee595…
07-16 13:30:52	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x213dce…
07-12 10:31:05	will xauusd dip to 3500 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8a3e66…
07-10 18:00:16	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	9	99¢	$8	0xea14da…
06-29 21:37:52	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x07f6f1…
06-29 14:02:55	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xc67f0c…
06-28 22:55:56	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa4564f…
06-28 12:28:59	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xf7cf69…
06-28 11:01:34	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xce2072…
05-30 10:56:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0xcf2e8a…
05-26 18:03:02	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	148	100¢	$147	0x97ed7f…
05-22 14:44:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x536a61…
05-21 01:25:34	Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	153	96¢	$147	0xc4cf5b…
05-20 11:43:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe5e8ae…
05-15 12:31:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0x1118e4…
05-14 18:48:53	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x1a1b03…
05-09 18:37:52	Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xd829be…
05-09 03:59:38	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc00c13…
05-08 13:12:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6b9657…
05-07 17:04:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x35751b…
05-07 10:44:53	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x06e7c1…
05-05 23:25:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x367a6c…