Last-Ironclad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

119

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$1.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-28 10:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

53% 98% +$4

Politics

26% 89% +$29

Crypto

17% 100% +$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+4	$3	60¢	$2	-$1	10-27 14:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$137	72	72	+0	open	—	10-28 10:48
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	5	$131	88	44	+44	No	+$0	09-07 15:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	2	$76	38	38	+0	No	+$0	08-13 15:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	08-27 17:52
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$51	28	28	+0	No	+$1	10-19 22:22
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-22 13:02
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	09-15 23:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	09-14 17:15
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$1	09-10 10:54
will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 31	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	09-01 03:30
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	08-08 01:43
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$41	42	0	+42	Yes	+$0	08-05 09:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$1	08-11 15:09
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$1	08-13 20:26
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:47
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	08-27 23:04
will xai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	03-31 06:09
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$21	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:10
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	10-28 04:51
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-30 08:05
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	10-12 03:03
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	02-25 14:34
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	07-31 14:11
will solana dip to 20 in february 2026	2	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	03-01 01:34
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$14	14	0	+14	Yes	+$0	06-29 13:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-30 20:06
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$11	5	5	+0	No	+$0	10-01 06:05
will googl reach 390 in june 2026	1	$10	11	0	+11	No	+$0	06-28 16:51
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-29 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 10:48:46	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	72	96¢	$69	0xee7ec9…
10-28 08:30:13	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	48	94¢	$46	0xa2cb00…
10-28 08:25:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$22	0xeb3046…
10-28 04:51:01	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x311dff…
10-27 14:52:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xc0d257…
10-24 00:15:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x96f47a…
10-24 00:15:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x915f8e…
10-24 00:15:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	77	0¢	$0	0x0da5b8…
10-24 00:09:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x79a154…
10-24 00:06:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xcaaad1…
10-24 00:04:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	72	0¢	$0	0x7929de…
10-19 22:22:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	28	92¢	$26	0x7b3639…
10-19 17:05:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x72a3f8…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	23¢	$8	0x5b4e79…
10-15 08:15:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0xd0556b…
10-12 03:03:20	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x38c3e9…
10-12 01:21:02	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xd31fcc…
10-08 15:04:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xa11db3…
10-04 21:10:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbaa51c…
10-03 05:52:51	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xad215e…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xbdbbeb…
10-02 07:14:24	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6a5065…
10-01 06:05:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xca88c7…
09-29 16:02:59	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0ef06b…
09-29 08:27:41	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x12328b…
09-28 01:45:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x3d19dd…
09-27 10:39:05	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x38e93f…
09-25 05:48:02	Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3fbac9…
09-22 13:02:03	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xda63ed…
09-15 23:21:06	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x58143d…
09-14 17:15:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x81b7ce…
09-10 10:54:51	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$44	0x1bb9e6…
09-07 15:55:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x649b37…
09-07 12:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x63aca7…
09-04 10:32:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xaef209…
09-04 09:13:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xcef982…
09-04 08:54:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfe7b84…
09-01 03:30:39	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 31	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xa34804…
08-27 23:04:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x069eb2…
08-27 17:52:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x050f3a…
08-25 07:52:42	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x97283e…
08-25 00:50:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x2c0005…
08-24 14:40:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x47e722…
08-24 03:12:00	Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x383f6b…
08-23 12:53:00	will ethereum dip to 1300 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe35d17…
08-22 15:00:39	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x223388…
08-20 21:47:10	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xfcf8a0…
08-20 11:47:07	will xauusd dip to 3700 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xa46fe7…
08-18 09:08:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x707bf9…
08-17 19:29:00	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x497179…
08-13 20:26:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xf6ff02…
08-13 15:10:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x471119…
08-13 03:17:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x3e2414…
08-12 10:24:58	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1e9a37…
08-11 15:09:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xaac9ef…
08-10 22:18:27	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb7b79…
08-10 03:47:37	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbca7ff…
08-08 01:43:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x42fde3…
08-05 09:03:42	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0xdb4e44…
07-31 14:11:48	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4b996b…
07-30 21:53:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8fcf11…
07-30 00:30:42	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4e713c…
07-29 20:33:15	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x31159f…
07-28 17:07:34	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2ffda0…
07-28 14:31:04	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3804b1…
07-27 07:16:30	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x848a81…
07-26 11:50:12	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd21aa4…
07-26 10:25:04	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x32f258…
07-26 05:58:03	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xf5b5e6…
07-26 02:57:06	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6c70d3…
07-25 13:07:03	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x758b59…
07-25 12:08:57	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf2ef1e…
07-24 14:10:54	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd099cc…
07-24 04:41:28	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaae2ba…
07-23 14:34:22	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xad349e…
07-23 08:18:12	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbba179…
07-21 03:52:42	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xcc407c…
06-30 08:05:17	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2c6bf2…
06-29 13:36:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x157a6b…
06-28 16:51:37	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0xda554b…
05-30 20:06:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd89832…
05-23 05:25:47	Will Solana reach $110 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x42ef2e…
05-22 01:18:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb07d68…
05-13 08:59:37	Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x3f39fa…
05-09 06:55:48	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4472d7…
05-09 01:36:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x673cdc…
05-09 00:24:52	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3ddbdd…
05-08 06:56:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x13ccc6…
05-07 23:49:19	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf0048c…
05-07 23:31:02	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x87f1de…
05-06 16:00:00	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa91c12…
05-05 12:55:54	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3c7475…
05-05 11:31:20	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2510e8…
05-05 10:44:34	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x16a205…
05-05 08:02:54	Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1c3805…
05-05 03:15:58	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x739d46…
04-25 01:39:42	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4062d5…
04-23 11:44:38	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe952f8…
04-22 14:29:40	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1b3843…
04-21 05:58:46	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x06d244…