Noxious-Eclipse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$704

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-19 17:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% — —

Politics

41% 100% +$43

Crypto

3% 100% +$5

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No		+35	$25	62¢	$22	$-3	05-27 20:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$72	49	49	+0	open	—	02-28 06:54
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$60	0	93	-93	open	—	06-19 17:02
will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	11	$36	100	100	+0	open	—	01-14 21:44
will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	6	$33	64	64	+0	open	—	01-16 16:11
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	13	$31	119	119	+0	open	—	03-13 17:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$30	80	80	+0	open	—	04-14 21:04
will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 9 2026	2	$27	141	141	+0	open	—	01-09 15:52
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	2	$26	97	97	+0	open	—	05-27 20:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$26	35	0	+35	open	—	05-08 22:42
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$25	70	70	+0	open	—	03-13 17:56
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$25	79	0	+79	open	—	05-09 22:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$25	68	0	+68	Yes	+$43	02-27 08:19
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$25	93	0	+93	open	—	01-10 08:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$25	44	0	+44	open	—	04-19 14:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	5	$25	57	0	+57	open	—	03-28 01:38
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$25	50	0	+50	open	—	02-25 06:23
will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 9 2026	1	$25	84	0	+84	open	—	01-04 15:28
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 31 2026	1	$25	35	0	+35	open	—	03-31 15:22
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	1	$25	35	0	+35	open	—	05-27 20:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$25	36	0	+36	open	—	05-10 17:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$25	36	0	+36	open	—	04-21 07:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$18	26	0	+26	open	—	04-23 23:22
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	1	$14	35	0	+35	open	—	04-07 12:24
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$10	28	0	+28	open	—	02-27 08:16
will israel strike lebanon on february 27 2026	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	02-27 08:22
btc updown 5m 1773687300	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-16 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-10 18:45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	02-27 08:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 17:02:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	65¢	$60	0x251111…
05-27 20:37:46	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x2660be…
05-27 20:31:49	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x263d4f…
05-10 18:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd64968…
05-10 17:33:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x0e523d…
05-09 22:18:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0xa4e322…
05-09 21:40:53	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	Yes	BUY	97	26¢	$25	0xc21025…
05-09 21:36:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x6f366f…
05-08 22:42:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0x505387…
04-23 23:22:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x99eaba…
04-21 07:23:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x5d090a…
04-19 14:09:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xfa8572…
04-14 21:04:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x73a9fb…
04-07 12:24:39	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	35	40¢	$14	0xa4e185…
03-31 15:22:59	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x349bd1…
03-28 01:38:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xae3f46…
03-28 00:51:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xbb6617…
03-27 23:41:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x59c130…
03-27 23:20:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x14ea9a…
03-27 22:33:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf896e3…
03-22 01:20:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x3c0007…
03-22 01:16:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x8f9467…
03-22 00:56:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xad56e2…
03-16 18:56:25	btc updown 5m 1773687300	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x62ccd7…
03-13 17:56:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xd08455…
03-13 17:56:09	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	5¢	$6	0x2d07a4…
03-01 13:03:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	70	35¢	$24	0x642e7e…
02-28 06:54:03	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	49	95¢	$47	0xae8b47…
02-27 08:30:55	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xbb382c…
02-27 08:22:13	will israel strike lebanon on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xfe2160…
02-27 08:19:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x339679…
02-27 08:16:07	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xf1642f…
02-25 06:23:20	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2b7f11…
01-26 07:55:31	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x6d3338…
01-22 23:01:30	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0x9aca33…
01-22 22:44:30	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x3ec0af…
01-22 22:43:56	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x10a64c…
01-22 22:41:46	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x21152c…
01-22 22:38:58	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x77b2b5…
01-22 22:38:50	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x332ff1…
01-22 22:37:44	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xcfc973…
01-22 22:37:36	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x15688b…
01-22 22:35:18	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x423037…
01-22 22:33:14	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xa718ca…
01-22 22:33:14	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x4d2401…
01-22 22:33:14	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1cf6a5…
01-16 16:11:40	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	SELL	64	11¢	$7	0xb950cb…
01-14 21:44:40	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x1e2764…
01-12 13:49:30	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0xcf61b3…
01-12 13:49:12	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x59b31c…
01-12 13:49:12	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x0dcd01…
01-11 23:34:14	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe71e50…
01-11 19:31:18	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x131b4b…
01-11 17:44:38	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xf9f229…
01-11 11:22:30	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xf43333…
01-11 11:22:30	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x5022cf…
01-11 11:22:28	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x04a55e…
01-11 11:22:10	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x8dabdc…
01-11 11:22:10	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x502476…
01-11 06:18:24	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa17416…
01-11 06:18:24	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x90ab80…
01-10 17:51:22	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x1d7a18…
01-10 14:01:18	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 16 2026	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x443198…
01-10 08:54:46	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x40e926…
01-10 08:54:44	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x5a2ac3…
01-09 15:52:16	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 9 2026	Yes	SELL	141	2¢	$3	0x64c77a…
01-04 15:30:33	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt5 and 42pt9 on january 9 2026	Yes	BUY	141	17¢	$24	0xf80b1b…
01-04 15:28:45	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 9 2026	Yes	BUY	84	30¢	$25	0x3215ab…