Classic-Molar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$42

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved

232

Trades

620

lifetime

Volume

$6.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-18

last 08-11 19:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

61% 24% -$337

Politics

34% 21% +$402

Crypto

4% 18% -$84

Tech

1% 25% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes		+204	$10	2¢	$3	-$7	07-02 06:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$447	2,849	348	+2,500	Yes	+$127	04-27 18:42
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?	7	$414	297	297	+0	Yes	+$176	06-16 11:50
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?	7	$400	368	388	-20	No	-$110	06-17 00:41
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	18	$274	421	192	+229	No	-$38	07-07 08:38
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1?	4	$219	238	238	+0	No	-$31	05-31 22:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	4	$194	265	66	+198	No	+$101	04-21 03:34
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	3	$185	439	179	+260	Yes	+$165	05-22 06:43
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	5	$176	678	122	+556	Yes	+$56	06-18 00:08
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28?	3	$174	135	135	+0	Yes	+$94	05-28 04:26
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14?	5	$172	117	117	+0	Yes	+$29	06-14 02:50
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	3	$170	688	688	+0	Yes	+$60	04-18 23:38
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	11	$160	1,977	286	+1,691	open	—	07-28 20:29
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	12	$152	1,619	610	+1,010	No	-$16	05-12 20:50
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 14?	2	$148	130	130	+0	No	-$2	05-13 20:54
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1?	2	$148	88	88	+0	Yes	+$28	06-01 01:42
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	5	$144	103	103	+0	No	+$24	05-23 21:59
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27?	5	$117	73	73	+0	Yes	+$29	05-27 04:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC	3	$101	92	86	+6	Up	+$49	07-29 22:18
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?	10	$98	1,600	99	+1,501	No	-$18	06-16 10:48
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29?	3	$96	57	57	+0	No	+$16	05-29 00:28
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	4	$93	1,074	1,074	+0	No	-$27	06-15 00:45
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	10	$82	3,880	278	+3,602	No	-$38	06-17 19:49
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$75	678	0	+678	Yes	-$75	04-22 10:23
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 30?	2	$74	54	54	+0	Yes	+$34	05-30 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	7	$70	503	253	+250	No	-$46	06-16 11:41
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 29?	5	$61	57	57	+0	Yes	+$21	05-29 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26?	6	$60	411	0	+411	No	-$60	05-25 03:56
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3?	4	$59	69	69	+0	Yes	-$1	06-02 12:25
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	3	$56	191	191	+0	No	+$2	04-18 23:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$52	51	51	+0	No	+$12	05-24 03:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 19:24:18	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0xe35a07…
07-30 09:12:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 400m and 500m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xa25157…
07-30 09:10:21	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,667	0¢	$2	0xfa6e04…
07-30 09:07:35	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 400m and 500m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x6524f2…
07-30 09:07:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 400m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	656	1¢	$5	0xe0770a…
07-30 08:28:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1fa1f3…
07-30 08:25:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xae7ab8…
07-30 08:25:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xccda06…
07-30 08:22:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x78bdb1…
07-30 08:21:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x65e905…
07-30 08:21:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x6a5aa7…
07-30 08:21:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5efb7c…
07-30 08:18:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4ceec2…
07-29 22:21:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xa40924…
07-29 22:18:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x3eaee0…
07-29 22:17:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC	Up	SELL	86	87¢	$75	0x5fd59e…
07-29 22:16:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x641e1a…
07-29 22:13:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x02e403…
07-29 22:11:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5812dd…
07-29 22:11:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xff7c18…
07-29 22:11:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x60231e…
07-29 22:11:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8c4c04…
07-29 22:11:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4109bd…
07-28 20:29:05	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	574	2¢	$9	0x5bb373…
07-26 04:04:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	1¢	$2	0x26a96e…
07-26 04:04:01	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x11bbd6…
07-25 04:38:13	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 250m and 300m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	261	0¢	$1	0x10adb3…
07-25 04:37:15	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	173	3¢	$5	0x82711a…
07-25 01:29:39	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x8dd7ca…
07-25 01:22:10	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	3¢	$4	0x0f0039…
07-23 19:42:28	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	383	3¢	$10	0x4fa3a7…
07-21 11:26:01	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x4f1c41…
07-19 08:45:27	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x68fdc7…
07-18 20:22:03	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	No	SELL	56	0¢	$0	0x4b51bf…
07-18 06:05:09	Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb66030…
07-14 09:24:34	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 16 2026	No	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x82c89a…
07-14 09:24:17	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 15 2026	No	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0xbc1b0c…
07-14 08:58:59	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	No	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0xc4eb86…
07-14 07:26:56	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2098f2…
07-14 07:24:05	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$0	0x995c15…
07-14 07:23:58	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x2f8b68…
07-14 06:20:59	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 15 2026	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xb35836…
07-14 06:16:53	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xbf9d65…
07-14 06:16:40	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc768ec…
07-14 06:16:05	Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	618	0¢	$1	0xb94b39…
07-13 08:28:16	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa79ada…
07-12 05:56:52	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x040c19…
07-12 02:24:07	will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044257	No	SELL	53	32¢	$17	0xb9413a…
07-12 01:03:07	Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	4¢	$5	0x827d56…
07-11 22:27:11	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa4f146…
07-11 22:26:55	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 16 2026	No	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0x131cb3…
07-11 08:07:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	11¢	$19	0xa598aa…
07-09 05:46:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	273	1¢	$3	0xdea542…
07-07 08:38:17	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xeddb4c…
07-07 05:10:47	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260629202434611	No	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x0158c0…
07-07 05:09:53	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260629202434611	No	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xd34103…
07-07 05:04:04	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xe31523…
07-07 05:03:28	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	91	19¢	$17	0xffe15a…
07-06 22:22:11	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x52ae95…
07-06 06:52:07	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	4¢	$10	0xef462c…
07-06 06:51:31	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	1¢	$3	0xd0050b…
07-06 06:36:10	will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044257	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xd68308…
07-06 06:25:19	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x8bd22b…
07-05 23:07:35	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0xc30948…
07-05 20:05:49	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x167cc3…
07-05 13:36:37	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6ac587…
07-05 02:52:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0xb9e40f…
07-05 02:52:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4e57d9…
07-05 02:44:34	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	SELL	118	20¢	$24	0x9b6d4f…
07-02 06:33:46	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb97064…
07-02 06:33:37	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x0efc7d…
07-02 06:30:17	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xec7b02…
07-02 06:26:25	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	168	3¢	$5	0xa76442…
07-02 06:20:46	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	5¢	$5	0x103d1b…
07-02 02:19:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x268321…
06-30 07:47:58	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x7118bf…
06-30 07:45:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	1¢	$1	0x566e10…
06-30 07:45:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	1¢	$1	0xe0fa9a…
06-30 07:45:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	0¢	$1	0xcb4abb…
06-30 07:45:02	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x1da341…
06-30 06:33:05	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xe590b7…
06-30 06:31:17	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1c28b0…
06-28 12:09:53	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1d132e…
06-28 11:55:29	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc1d7c2…
06-28 11:49:43	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x61fdd4…
06-28 06:52:16	Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x22163e…
06-27 22:13:49	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	546	1¢	$5	0x3a99fc…
06-27 22:12:34	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	126	4¢	$5	0x563931…
06-27 16:33:44	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x7518f8…
06-27 16:33:41	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xf1576d…
06-27 16:33:41	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xce49fc…
06-27 16:33:40	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x1e019b…
06-27 14:36:49	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0xb8c05a…
06-27 13:35:52	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x0fca88…
06-27 08:46:47	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	65	62¢	$40	0xe76d88…
06-26 20:16:17	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x01f816…
06-26 20:16:07	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x903f3e…
06-26 08:05:41	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0x4696d7…
06-24 07:52:10	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	SELL	530	0¢	$1	0x2c46f1…
06-24 07:48:58	Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$1	0x36a5f0…