Nautical-Vault — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$491

Unrealized P&L

+$131

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

Trades

317

lifetime

Volume

$17.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$4.99K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 10:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

50% 54% +$175

Tech

22% 82% -$6

Politics

17% 78% +$288

Sports

10% 67% +$30

Crypto

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	+3,985	$3,587	96¢	$3.8K	+$237	08-18 14:46
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	-1,015	-$934	96¢	$-976	-$42	09-21 13:38
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+100	$94	98¢	$98	+$4	10-04 21:53
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-100	-$27	96¢	$-96	-$69	05-23 12:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	64	$3.6K	3,985	0	+3,985	open	—	08-18 14:46
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$2.4K	2,529	114	+2,415	No	+$18	04-27 23:35
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	18	$1.5K	773	773	+0	No	+$33	06-27 21:14
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	9	$1.3K	185	1,200	-1,015	open	—	09-21 13:38
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	9	$1.1K	1,166	0	+1,166	open	—	08-31 03:17
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?	21	$1.1K	1,274	658	+616	Yes	+$34	05-27 01:08
grok 4pt20 released by january 9	2	$1.0K	1,040	0	+1,040	No	+$22	01-07 14:53
will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1100 20260623232159229	2	$787	493	493	+0	Yes	-$111	07-01 13:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$738	400	400	+0	No	+$26	06-28 12:34
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$368	390	390	+0	open	—	06-03 14:29
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	4	$325	432	0	+432	Yes	+$107	03-23 12:27
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	13	$294	234	234	+0	Yes	-$4	06-27 23:16
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	4	$293	300	0	+300	No	+$7	03-23 12:47
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	6	$247	275	275	+0	open	—	10-31 10:29
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	1	$247	260	0	+260	Yes	+$13	05-03 11:27
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$200	208	0	+208	No	+$8	01-31 11:46
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	13	$199	366	58	+308	Yes	-$132	03-02 09:04
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	03-23 12:34
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	1	$155	0	178	-178	Yes	+$155	04-29 11:04
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	4	$153	220	0	+220	Yes	+$67	05-31 11:36
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	3	$151	163	0	+163	Yes	+$12	05-07 18:26
will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 2	1	$116	0	427	-427	No	+$116	01-01 07:08
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	01-07 14:51
grok 4pt20 released by march 31 147	3	$98	100	0	+100	Yes	+$2	02-16 18:26
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	2	$94	100	0	+100	open	—	10-04 21:53
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	3	$77	111	0	+111	Yes	+$34	05-04 14:48
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	3	$75	82	0	+82	No	+$7	05-05 11:51
will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week 793	8	$69	70	0	+70	Yes	+$1	02-16 23:23
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	1	$64	0	65	-65	No	-$1	05-06 12:12
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	1	$59	0	59	-59	No	$0	05-06 12:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 10:29:49	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	SELL	275	2¢	$5	0xda7f30…
10-06 10:30:31	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x627ee7…
10-04 21:53:58	Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xd4917d…
10-01 04:42:39	Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	96	94¢	$91	0x2ec50c…
09-27 09:52:39	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xb4066b…
09-27 09:52:35	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x1cfb83…
09-27 09:52:33	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x73be99…
09-21 13:38:17	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x5beab2…
09-21 06:38:14	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x79659c…
09-16 23:17:07	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xf05705…
09-14 06:09:31	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x556c35…
09-13 05:59:42	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$64	0xa6e650…
09-13 01:37:46	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	61	92¢	$56	0xe6270e…
09-13 01:37:24	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x01ecb9…
08-31 03:17:15	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x72ba66…
08-31 03:15:36	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x8fa631…
08-22 08:25:24	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	BUY	147	92¢	$135	0x991f4c…
08-21 23:22:49	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x71628d…
08-19 13:44:45	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x85a1df…
08-18 14:46:27	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xe96178…
08-18 13:06:34	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	45	91¢	$41	0xd45ac7…
08-17 04:10:40	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x1643ed…
08-16 22:11:12	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x4c1fd6…
08-16 16:44:42	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x7000f0…
08-16 13:13:03	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x917240…
08-16 12:13:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x6caba5…
08-16 12:07:48	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	173	93¢	$161	0x983891…
08-10 17:25:52	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	37	91¢	$34	0x11bbce…
08-10 03:27:37	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xa07ab6…
08-08 14:08:51	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0x49d7ec…
08-02 15:21:47	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$54	0xe02fed…
08-02 08:21:17	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6a0ad7…
08-01 07:52:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x8f5629…
08-01 07:50:17	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x549962…
07-25 05:30:54	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x057b64…
07-25 03:49:49	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x1b4a3f…
07-25 03:49:39	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	91	90¢	$82	0x3ac2c5…
07-24 14:36:19	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	119	90¢	$108	0xf6a5f2…
07-21 15:00:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x4b1221…
07-19 13:06:51	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0xda5ae3…
07-19 08:19:09	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0x9367b7…
07-18 23:01:09	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xa5d9a1…
07-18 13:30:45	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xd04d6a…
07-18 03:02:15	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x3de282…
07-16 21:27:02	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x9392e6…
07-15 08:40:02	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x3c4a8b…
07-15 01:54:25	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x4dcb46…
07-14 19:25:52	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	57	91¢	$51	0x829a76…
07-14 17:11:11	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xb242e9…
07-14 13:37:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x13c418…
07-14 13:34:58	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x3eaa97…
07-12 10:50:17	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	116	91¢	$106	0x37333a…
07-11 11:08:28	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x11bbf7…
07-11 11:08:26	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	670	91¢	$609	0xeaa5e1…
07-11 10:51:31	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xa623aa…
07-11 10:50:53	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xab61de…
07-11 10:50:43	Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x2a2f54…
07-05 13:18:47	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0x06ee70…
07-04 23:11:53	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0xf23bc9…
07-01 13:32:38	will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1100 20260623232159229	Yes	SELL	493	69¢	$338	0x12540e…
06-30 15:32:10	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0x933640…
06-30 15:27:14	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	71	90¢	$65	0x7230ac…
06-30 15:24:02	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0xb5ea2e…
06-30 08:03:04	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xdbf48c…
06-29 16:01:01	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x9e9533…
06-29 13:57:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xa4ce45…
06-29 13:55:17	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	101	90¢	$92	0x9312d0…
06-29 13:55:11	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe8fc28…
06-28 23:20:20	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0x0228fe…
06-28 12:51:50	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	BUY	220	92¢	$203	0xded735…
06-28 12:34:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	354	96¢	$338	0xcff493…
06-28 12:29:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0x1112c1…
06-28 12:27:11	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x643f4d…
06-28 12:23:49	will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1100 20260623232159229	Yes	BUY	493	91¢	$449	0x889b9c…
06-28 12:23:07	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0xc1d562…
06-28 12:21:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x66bb89…
06-27 23:16:16	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	13	12¢	$1	0x8cdd66…
06-27 23:09:08	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xf139bc…
06-27 23:08:58	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0xd4b8ff…
06-27 23:08:01	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x5689ec…
06-27 22:30:43	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xb9e07e…
06-27 22:10:31	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	BUY	54	8¢	$5	0x33b470…
06-27 21:14:20	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xbb36b7…
06-27 21:14:20	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x3e6e77…
06-27 21:14:20	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0x0262c8…
06-27 21:12:19	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xf8eae5…
06-27 21:12:16	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$78	0x3415fc…
06-27 21:10:38	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$151	0xd38f46…
06-27 21:04:53	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0xf64fa2…
06-27 21:04:50	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0x13a740…
06-27 21:03:26	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x02d280…
06-27 21:03:23	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xec55da…
06-27 21:03:23	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd27395…
06-27 05:18:47	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	170	80¢	$136	0xea0068…
06-27 05:11:14	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0xc35f8d…
06-27 05:11:14	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0x430ca2…
06-27 05:11:13	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x2a1f3d…
06-27 05:11:05	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xe459b1…
06-27 05:07:56	Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x50c708…
06-27 02:19:28	Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x2271cc…