Rosy-Ghost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$413

Unrealized P&L

+$25

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

464

Trades

1,118

lifetime

Volume

$5.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 10-07 15:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

41% 40% -$292

Politics

29% 76% +$93

Crypto

21% 68% -$4

Tech

8% 25% -$207

Sports

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+33	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	08-28 17:11
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	-6	-$31	9¢	$-1	+$30	09-04 03:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	06-22 07:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	22	$247	617	617	+0	Yes	+$77	05-14 19:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$194	8,762	1,786	+6,976	Yes	-$86	04-15 14:46
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	4	$174	161	161	+0	No	+$32	04-08 15:40
Iran leadership change by April 30?	6	$150	500	500	+0	No	+$50	04-07 05:28
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?	5	$132	100	100	+0	Yes	+$18	04-10 10:32
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	7	$123	161	161	+0	Yes	+$21	04-22 17:34
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$119	100	100	+0	No	+$59	05-20 13:37
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	5	$114	152	152	+0	No	+$74	03-31 01:16
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	2	$105	6,094	0	+6,094	Yes	-$105	04-23 18:24
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	6	$100	366	0	+366	No	-$100	04-11 05:00
AI bubble burst in 2026?	7	$92	200	206	-6	open	—	09-04 03:38
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$90	1,017	0	+1,017	Yes	-$90	04-16 17:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	3	$85	100	100	+0	No	+$45	04-22 02:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	4	$73	100	100	+0	No	+$13	04-17 13:32
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	6	$70	115	115	+0	No	+$10	04-11 16:56
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	5	$70	378	0	+378	Yes	-$70	04-19 16:39
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	3	$67	60	60	+0	No	+$7	04-05 22:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-03 23:00 UTC	8	$65	77	75	+1	Up	+$5	03-03 23:07
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?	2	$60	213	0	+213	No	-$60	04-08 01:57
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$60	337	137	+200	No	-$8	05-13 07:12
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	3	$57	100	100	+0	Yes	+$6	04-04 08:45
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	3	$57	82	82	+0	Yes	+$17	04-01 15:24
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	2	$55	182	0	+182	Yes	-$55	09-20 16:57
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$54	150	150	+0	No	+$9	04-04 10:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	5	$52	66	66	+0	Yes	+$4	04-21 17:22
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$50	1,317	0	+1,317	No	-$50	05-02 04:35
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	1	$50	833	0	+833	No	-$50	04-30 02:56
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	2	$47	222	222	+0	No	+$7	04-12 12:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$45	32	32	+0	No	+$5	04-22 14:23
bitcoin up or down march 5 7am et	10	$44	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	03-05 12:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 15:04:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xdf10e2…
09-24 16:21:54	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xef176a…
09-24 16:21:23	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x6ee65e…
09-23 14:33:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x593430…
09-20 16:57:55	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xb90409…
09-15 16:55:24	iran oman hormuz agreement by september 30 823 929	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc0c84b…
09-15 16:53:07	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x31ce85…
09-09 08:31:25	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x7a794f…
09-05 22:59:18	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9b8f14…
09-04 03:38:07	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0x930153…
09-03 16:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xec61b9…
09-03 16:52:25	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xeeca7a…
09-03 16:51:09	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x42af34…
09-02 06:07:27	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x02cbef…
09-01 16:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x95f6ae…
09-01 14:05:27	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa04f22…
09-01 13:58:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0e8e79…
08-31 16:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x588e70…
08-31 15:22:37	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xf082e6…
08-31 14:59:45	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xbf42dd…
08-31 10:42:53	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbaa6e1…
08-30 12:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xdb7367…
08-29 17:08:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x2a37ba…
08-29 17:07:06	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1495eb…
08-29 14:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xdeb035…
08-28 17:11:43	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf2d6e4…
08-28 16:57:46	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa792d4…
08-28 08:31:25	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xd2aa23…
08-28 06:35:46	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x175f2c…
08-26 17:04:30	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd07214…
08-26 16:59:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xae4cdb…
08-20 18:01:48	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 31 2026 20260807172323134	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3cf53e…
08-20 18:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd241ec…
08-20 17:55:42	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1e0706…
08-20 05:10:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0x11bea9…
08-20 04:36:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x2f4fe0…
08-20 04:12:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xa38060…
08-20 03:58:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xfb13a0…
08-20 03:35:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x8ca181…
08-19 17:10:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4acd3c…
08-19 17:09:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa9cbc0…
08-19 17:07:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x6f816a…
08-19 17:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x80b0c6…
08-18 13:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x429a93…
08-17 17:05:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x64538b…
08-17 17:05:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x19eb6e…
08-17 17:03:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x231e5a…
08-17 17:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb4ec4b…
08-17 17:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xf28ff4…
08-17 17:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x943e0e…
08-16 17:29:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x315f02…
08-16 17:29:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x8bb7bb…
08-16 17:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x35520c…
08-16 17:27:43	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xad5663…
08-16 17:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x2cb77b…
08-16 17:24:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x2534f1…
08-14 17:09:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdaedfe…
08-14 10:24:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xcd08f7…
08-13 22:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0a5f0a…
08-13 22:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x59f26c…
08-13 22:05:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6460c4…
08-13 22:05:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0fe2e0…
08-12 11:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0xee51f8…
08-11 17:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa4e655…
08-11 17:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x4ff7d7…
08-11 17:44:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xe68f02…
08-11 17:42:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7456c7…
08-11 17:42:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3b0d50…
08-11 16:02:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x308353…
08-11 06:58:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc4900a…
08-11 00:21:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x18d301…
08-09 16:17:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf76dd4…
08-09 16:17:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x581703…
08-09 16:15:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x8d281b…
08-09 16:14:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xc7d82d…
08-09 16:14:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x117c29…
08-09 16:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xf1bcbe…
08-09 14:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb0ded3…
08-08 18:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x056bb5…
08-08 18:10:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb40ba6…
08-08 18:10:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9c4130…
08-08 00:03:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1db9ee…
08-08 00:03:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd86696…
08-07 16:07:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6e04a8…
08-06 18:43:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x21754d…
08-06 18:41:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4a554b…
08-06 18:41:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1ac7c8…
08-06 18:40:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2b1aef…
08-06 00:38:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa7fa5d…
08-06 00:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf96f27…
08-06 00:36:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x678822…
08-06 00:36:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe8e097…
08-05 18:35:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x26dca6…
08-05 18:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2ea59b…
08-05 13:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x222f69…
08-04 23:43:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2381cd…
08-04 23:42:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4e73d7…
08-04 23:40:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x97719a…
08-04 23:40:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf1600f…
08-04 00:18:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x95c1de…