Alarmed-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

36.0%

Resolved

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$1.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-22 23:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Politics

87% 33% -$3

Other

11% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	9	$168	86	86	+0	No	$0	05-15 22:13
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	26	$105	377	377	+0	No	+$0	05-11 22:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	11	$97	140	140	+0	No	+$0	06-03 02:20
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	5	$79	160	160	+0	No	$0	05-04 20:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	7	$76	155	155	+0	No	$0	05-18 18:13
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	4	$70	37	37	+0	No	+$0	05-29 11:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$69	135	135	+0	No	+$1	05-14 20:47
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	2	$68	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-12 13:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$68	36	36	+0	No	$0	05-21 08:43
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$67	37	37	+0	Yes	$0	04-27 17:42
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$64	33	33	+0	No	$0	05-07 13:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$61	33	33	+0	No	$0	05-28 19:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	11	$51	135	135	+0	No	$0	05-09 08:58
will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	1	$30	32	0	+32	No	+$2	06-22 23:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	06-02 23:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$17	9	9	+0	No	+$0	05-20 14:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	6	$13	110	110	+0	No	$0	05-06 06:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	5	$9	127	124	+3	No	$0	05-10 08:08
Iran leadership change by May 31?	5	$7	86	86	+0	No	$0	05-22 01:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$5	70	70	+0	No	$0	05-21 16:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	4	$4	129	129	+0	No	-$1	05-08 18:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$4	60	60	+0	No	+$0	05-26 16:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	4	$3	60	60	+0	No	$0	06-01 03:10
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	4	$3	55	55	+0	No	$0	05-28 13:28
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	3	$2	16	16	+0	open	—	05-13 20:39
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	3	$2	52	52	+0	No	-$1	04-30 04:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 23:55:44	will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x8aa92f…
06-03 02:20:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x530dcc…
06-03 00:15:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x7a7395…
06-02 23:50:53	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xc72b76…
06-02 17:58:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x75417a…
06-02 11:22:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xdfba88…
06-02 11:22:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x020153…
06-02 10:16:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x14aa30…
06-02 10:09:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x55ccd4…
06-02 04:42:25	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x6bc148…
06-01 11:34:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	3¢	$2	0x2be968…
06-01 10:50:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xebd752…
06-01 10:50:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x23ef35…
06-01 10:50:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x152c10…
06-01 03:10:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x020405…
06-01 01:19:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0xe5d717…
06-01 01:19:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xe55342…
06-01 01:19:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x77b944…
05-29 11:36:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x8ba6cf…
05-29 08:55:15	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x23b213…
05-28 19:13:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x705a27…
05-28 19:13:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	31	92¢	$29	0x0dc21d…
05-28 19:03:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xc18747…
05-28 13:28:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x67989d…
05-28 13:28:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0x0ffc64…
05-28 11:58:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xfa604c…
05-28 11:58:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x5dde86…
05-28 09:33:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x288cd2…
05-28 04:18:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x428c2c…
05-26 16:39:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x2b15b6…
05-26 16:20:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x4bdab4…
05-26 16:20:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x029e4f…
05-22 01:53:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xfb3c17…
05-22 01:53:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xe005ab…
05-22 01:53:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x7c7277…
05-22 01:53:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x6109bd…
05-21 22:19:40	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	86	4¢	$4	0x1276a1…
05-21 16:16:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	32	4¢	$1	0x98811c…
05-21 16:16:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$1	0x2555c4…
05-21 11:41:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xe1c8c2…
05-21 08:43:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x7161cb…
05-21 06:50:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x62d4db…
05-20 14:17:53	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0xa56964…
05-20 10:57:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x99648e…
05-18 18:13:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x01fbfe…
05-18 18:12:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x2757f6…
05-18 18:11:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0xc9f5c2…
05-18 06:33:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xc8bed3…
05-18 06:33:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	SELL	79	3¢	$3	0xd59fac…
05-18 06:33:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x4b7545…
05-18 03:49:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	BUY	119	3¢	$3	0x1d6c17…
05-15 22:13:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x32fc75…
05-15 22:13:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x3345ec…
05-15 18:02:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0x6c137a…
05-15 09:16:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xb67be2…
05-15 09:15:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xe49232…
05-15 09:14:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x53d1f6…
05-15 08:40:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x47e4b0…
05-14 20:47:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x795c0b…
05-14 16:12:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x9437f0…
05-14 10:26:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xfdf7a0…
05-14 08:02:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x283f51…
05-13 20:39:39	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0xa71ca9…
05-13 20:39:39	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0x379e62…
05-13 19:12:42	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x05204b…
05-12 13:32:03	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x515152…
05-12 12:01:15	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x800083…
05-12 02:01:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	3¢	$3	0xa72700…
05-12 02:00:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x019706…
05-11 22:44:28	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x3eb993…
05-11 22:44:27	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x99cb6e…
05-11 20:01:00	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0x08c095…
05-11 17:48:10	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xbf3d12…
05-11 17:48:10	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0x588298…
05-11 15:28:28	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x60bc25…
05-11 11:58:42	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x718712…
05-11 05:16:24	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xd95310…
05-11 05:15:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0xdaf703…
05-11 05:15:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x94748e…
05-11 05:15:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x4759bc…
05-11 05:15:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x239881…
05-11 05:14:14	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	3¢	$3	0x40a1e0…
05-10 08:08:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	4¢	$2	0xf49b56…
05-10 06:38:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	4¢	$3	0x40af41…
05-10 00:55:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	4¢	$2	0x36a00e…
05-09 21:33:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	4¢	$1	0xe2c119…
05-09 21:33:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x259de8…
05-09 08:58:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0x54cfcf…
05-09 06:48:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0xca1a93…
05-08 18:36:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0xaf54bf…
05-08 18:28:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xe7fc7e…
05-08 18:28:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x7f839b…
05-08 16:53:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	2¢	$3	0x12949d…
05-07 23:50:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x706302…
05-07 23:49:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xcef143…
05-07 23:49:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x61b6d2…
05-07 21:37:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xf2e87e…
05-07 21:37:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xb52381…
05-07 21:37:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x97b3d8…
05-07 13:27:22	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xdc5ede…