Secret-Quota — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$65

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

323

Trades

935

lifetime

Volume

$1.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-20 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 62% -$55

Other

2% 17% -$9

Politics

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	-58	-$3	6¢	$-3	$0	10-01 19:21
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+2	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	10-20 16:31
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+6	$1	16¢	$1	$0	10-02 13:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down february 18 7am et	14	$44	38	38	+0	Up	-$11	02-18 13:03
ethereum up or down february 18 3am et	5	$40	21	21	+0	Up	+$2	02-18 09:10
ethereum up or down february 18 6am et	3	$39	20	20	+0	Down	+$0	02-18 11:57
ethereum up or down february 18 2am et	3	$35	18	18	+0	Up	+$1	02-18 08:11
ethereum up or down february 18 1am et	3	$34	17	17	+0	Up	+$1	02-18 06:58
ethereum up or down february 17 8pm et	6	$31	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	02-18 02:00
ethereum up or down february 18 12am et	5	$30	20	18	+2	Down	+$4	02-18 06:03
ethereum up or down february 17 9pm et	2	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	02-18 02:53
ethereum up or down february 17 11am et	2	$22	11	11	+0	Up	+$0	02-17 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:45 UTC	5	$19	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	03-09 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 20:40 UTC	7	$14	13	12	+1	Up	+$6	03-10 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	7	$13	9	8	+2	Down	+$1	03-13 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 19:50 UTC	7	$13	10	10	+0	Up	+$4	03-10 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 20:30 UTC	8	$13	124	12	+111	Up	+$3	03-10 20:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:10 UTC	2	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$2	03-09 19:13
ethereum up or down february 17 8am et	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	02-17 14:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 20:10 UTC	3	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	03-09 20:16
ethereum up or down february 17 7am et	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	02-17 13:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 20:45 UTC	5	$12	14	2	+12	Up	-$8	03-10 20:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 17:20 UTC	4	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	03-09 17:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 17:50 UTC	5	$11	8	6	+3	Up	-$1	03-10 17:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 16:10 UTC	3	$11	9	5	+4	Down	-$1	03-09 16:15
ethereum up or down february 17 5am et	6	$11	14	14	+0	Down	+$1	02-17 10:54
ethereum up or down february 18 9am et	2	$11	11	11	+0	Up	-$7	02-18 14:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 18:20 UTC	4	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	03-09 18:25
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	8	$11	20	79	-58	open	—	10-19 16:30
ethereum up or down february 1 1pm et	8	$10	44	29	+15	Up	-$4	02-01 19:18
ethereum up or down february 16 10am et	4	$10	37	37	+0	Down	+$0	02-16 16:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:10 UTC	9	$10	129	29	+100	Down	+$0	03-31 16:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 18:25 UTC	2	$10	12	0	+12	Down	-$10	03-10 18:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 16:31:00	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x19d2f5…
10-19 16:30:26	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2a2491…
10-08 18:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x45c075…
10-08 18:57:24	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$1	0x293c0a…
10-02 14:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1ed411…
10-02 14:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xe315e3…
10-02 14:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xefd28b…
10-02 14:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x70d620…
10-02 14:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xff5157…
10-02 14:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf139f5…
10-02 14:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3c239e…
10-02 14:04:47	Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x934d7c…
10-02 13:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3992a8…
10-02 13:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x786bb1…
10-02 13:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x50491a…
10-02 13:43:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	No	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0xcecdda…
10-02 13:43:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	No	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x9ee7a1…
10-02 13:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xce8a06…
10-02 13:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x44b3b7…
10-02 13:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2a2672…
10-02 13:15:42	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4e7f07…
10-02 13:14:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8e13ee…
10-02 13:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x86f085…
10-02 13:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb0da2d…
10-02 13:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x834d85…
10-02 13:05:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xbd137e…
10-01 19:48:00	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x44a67b…
10-01 19:46:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xee047f…
10-01 19:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x663f1b…
10-01 19:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x5bbf2f…
10-01 19:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9c9eda…
10-01 19:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x79e53b…
10-01 19:21:32	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	4¢	$2	0xbc7bd7…
06-21 17:02:11	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x5323b1…
06-02 15:33:44	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x7832bd…
06-02 15:32:10	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3948d9…
05-16 08:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x8dc83b…
05-16 08:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6effa9…
05-16 08:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xefe373…
05-16 08:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3dea6b…
05-16 08:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0xef3b5f…
05-16 08:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe5267c…
05-16 08:31:50	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x806494…
05-16 08:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xc88d07…
05-15 21:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7be187…
05-15 21:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0x463bfa…
05-15 21:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x747c9b…
05-15 21:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd139bf…
05-15 21:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xadd5fe…
05-15 21:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x62b1ab…
05-15 21:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7435b7…
05-15 20:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf765dc…
05-15 20:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf439b2…
05-15 14:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xbfa584…
05-15 14:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3bc76a…
05-15 14:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa1cd54…
05-15 11:24:36	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc894b0…
05-15 11:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x0d823a…
05-15 11:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaade77…
05-15 11:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	29¢	$0	0x96bf81…
05-15 11:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x06213d…
05-15 11:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x0334d2…
05-15 11:10:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x31f94a…
05-15 11:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1ec2c1…
05-15 11:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xcb6b87…
05-15 09:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x0787c1…
05-15 09:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x610ea4…
05-15 08:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xe8ff96…
05-15 08:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x21cedb…
05-13 21:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xebcc3d…
05-13 21:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2cb4f1…
05-13 21:06:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xc0579a…
05-13 21:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7c90dc…
05-13 21:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$1	0x7b7ec9…
05-13 21:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x34445b…
05-13 20:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x801aaf…
05-12 18:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x2aa491…
05-12 18:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x6c4f60…
05-12 18:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x9a23f2…
05-12 18:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x545f51…
05-12 18:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x4b5f72…
05-12 18:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x4fffee…
05-12 18:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x778e83…
05-12 18:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1dca6d…
05-12 18:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xdae305…
05-12 18:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x52bcc3…
05-12 18:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd6b027…
05-12 18:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x1afb16…
05-11 19:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xc62726…
05-11 19:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x13e7a0…
05-11 19:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd4c227…
05-11 19:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe34314…
05-11 19:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xba5c3f…
05-11 19:52:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdb8b9b…
05-11 19:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xbbd379…
05-11 19:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xafdbde…
05-11 19:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6799d8…
05-11 19:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x524a5b…
05-11 19:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9e294f…
05-11 19:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xce0882…