Same-Metaphor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$169

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

515

Trades

566

lifetime

Volume

$14.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$79

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 11-09 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Other

58% 80% +$135

Politics

37% 83% -$323

Tech

2% 89% -$1

Sports

2% 78% -$4

Crypto

1% 100% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	+51	$50	83¢	$42	-$8	11-09 00:13
Will Trump say "Fake News" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	+56	$50	56¢	$32	-$18	11-09 00:13
Will Trump say "Susie" or "Wiles" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	11-09 00:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week?	1	$330	333	0	+333	Yes	+$3	05-30 20:33
will trump say maga during june 24 rally 20260616194255613	1	$250	321	0	+321	No	-$250	06-22 17:11
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe Biden" on Truth Social this week?	1	$250	253	0	+253	Yes	+$3	05-30 15:15
will trump post iran on truth social this week 20260626215234527	1	$250	253	0	+253	Yes	+$3	06-29 10:47
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during Coast Guard event?	4	$245	158	158	+0	Yes	+$45	05-20 16:45
will trump post crime on truth social this week 20260612152704352	1	$184	187	0	+187	Yes	+$3	06-15 12:01
will trump post crime on truth social this week 20260724154822854	1	$182	185	0	+185	Yes	+$3	07-27 16:04
Will Airbnb say "Take Rate" during earnings call?	2	$153	205	0	+205	Yes	+$52	11-05 22:16
will drpt oz say blue during the press briefing 20260602132903049	1	$110	112	0	+112	Yes	+$2	06-02 17:23
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May?	2	$104	54	54	+0	Yes	+$4	05-21 20:40
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?	2	$100	51	50	+0	Yes	+$0	05-26 00:04
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	05-29 21:21
will vance say ass during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847873	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	07-08 18:33
Will Uber say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call?	1	$100	176	0	+176	No	+$76	11-04 13:41
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	2	$100	135	0	+135	Yes	+$35	11-05 20:00
Will Trump say "Bridge" this week?	2	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	05-21 16:21
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	2	$100	118	0	+118	Yes	+$18	11-09 00:12
Will Airbnb say "Social Media" during earnings call?	1	$100	105	0	+105	Yes	+$5	11-05 22:43
will pope be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260605165706071	1	$100	110	0	+110	No	-$100	06-12 15:42
Will Airbnb say "Code / Coding" during earnings call?	1	$100	104	0	+104	No	-$100	11-05 22:53
will scam be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260604160625631	1	$100	102	0	+102	No	+$2	06-10 19:34
Will Bernie say "Iran" in Maine?	2	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	05-24 22:54
will magic be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260604160625623	1	$100	103	0	+103	No	+$3	06-10 19:35
will anthropic or claude be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260604160625630	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	06-10 19:28
Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	2	$90	124	0	+124	Yes	+$34	10-28 19:00
will starmer say defense during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137142	2	$88	89	0	+89	Yes	+$1	06-10 11:07
Will AMD say "Debt" during earnings call?	1	$85	86	0	+86	Yes	+$1	11-03 22:25
Will Uber say "Autonomous" during earnings call?	1	$75	76	0	+76	Yes	+$1	11-04 13:28
Will AMD say "Oracle" during earnings call?	1	$75	76	0	+76	Yes	+$1	11-03 22:08
Will Trump say "Finland" during Coast Guard event?	3	$75	77	0	+77	Yes	+$2	05-20 16:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 00:13:22	Will Trump say "Susie" or "Wiles" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf2f0f0…
11-09 00:13:22	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xf0749c…
11-09 00:13:22	Will Trump say "Fake News" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xb2a4e0…
11-09 00:13:22	Will Trump say "Hormuz" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x22345a…
11-09 00:13:16	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xc69966…
11-09 00:12:52	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	Yes	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x3089d5…
11-09 00:12:52	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x2074d4…
11-05 22:56:33	Will Airbnb say "Acquired / Acquisition" during earnings call?	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x7319fc…
11-05 22:53:18	Will Airbnb say "Code / Coding" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	104	97¢	$100	0x859dd7…
11-05 22:43:48	Will Airbnb say "Social Media" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x97f75d…
11-05 22:16:36	Will Airbnb say "Take Rate" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x250400…
11-05 22:16:36	Will Airbnb say "Take Rate" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	63	84¢	$53	0x110f31…
11-05 22:04:28	Will Airbnb say "Project Hawaii" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x3670c3…
11-05 20:00:27	Will "Green" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x8b516f…
11-05 20:00:22	Will "Legality" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xef4a39…
11-05 20:00:22	Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x47c685…
11-05 20:00:21	Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xb7e845…
11-05 20:00:16	Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xd0054a…
11-05 20:00:16	Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x43882e…
11-05 20:00:10	Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x60349b…
11-05 20:00:10	Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x0a9fa6…
11-04 14:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xeb7a7f…
11-04 13:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x99724c…
11-04 13:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x191ab7…
11-04 13:41:34	Will Uber say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0xba4736…
11-04 13:28:22	Will Uber say "Autonomous" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	76	98¢	$75	0xd5c552…
11-04 13:18:46	Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb6aad9…
11-03 22:25:01	Will AMD say "Debt" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x1bd8ef…
11-03 22:08:37	Will AMD say "Microsoft / Azure" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xe2e3fc…
11-03 22:08:37	Will AMD say "Oracle" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	76	98¢	$75	0xb1b2d0…
11-03 18:01:10	Will "Buddy of Mine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xc76b10…
11-03 18:01:07	Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xdfd7ed…
11-03 18:01:03	Will "Elon" or "Musk" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	73	89¢	$65	0xe64d50…
11-03 18:00:58	Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	85	76¢	$65	0xadc983…
11-03 18:00:33	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	66	98¢	$65	0x48f336…
11-03 18:00:27	Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	66	98¢	$65	0xdd575e…
11-03 18:00:25	Will "Right" be said 5+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0xb37603…
11-03 18:00:22	Will "Chimp" or "Monkey" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	37	98¢	$37	0xdb6b93…
11-02 22:15:57	Will Apple say "Apple Music" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	74	88¢	$65	0xdffa29…
11-02 22:09:21	Will Apple say "Fold / Folding / Foldable" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	64	98¢	$63	0xf2f5f4…
11-02 22:03:33	Will Apple say "Homepod" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x6e7a66…
10-29 21:22:19	Will Amazon say "Robotic / Robotics" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x178a8f…
10-29 21:18:54	Will Amazon say "Live Sports" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xc7d5cf…
10-29 21:11:19	Will Amazon say "AWS" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x31ca64…
10-29 21:07:42	Will Amazon say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0xbb2382…
10-29 21:05:18	Will Amazon say "Data Center" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x716cda…
10-29 21:02:33	Will Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x6c2421…
10-28 21:50:44	Will Microsoft say "Dividend" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x14d168…
10-28 21:48:01	Will Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0xed58c7…
10-28 21:47:34	Will Microsoft say "Anthropic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x687c5b…
10-28 21:45:34	Will Microsoft say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0a476e…
10-28 19:01:38	Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x028d4d…
10-28 19:01:37	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x2d165f…
10-28 19:01:26	Will "Elon" or "Musk" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x82f1ab…
10-28 19:00:28	Will "Legality" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0xadc4a8…
10-28 19:00:28	Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0x164f91…
10-28 19:00:25	Will "Green" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	66	68¢	$45	0xd11db1…
10-28 19:00:25	Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	64	70¢	$45	0xb91ef7…
10-28 19:00:25	Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	59	76¢	$45	0x8e70be…
10-28 19:00:25	Will "Green" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x19730f…
10-28 19:00:19	Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0x58bbf5…
10-28 12:31:05	Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xaf10f4…
10-28 12:31:05	Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x35ca6b…
10-28 12:19:44	Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x199e92…
10-28 12:03:50	Will Andy Burnham say "Immigration" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x19abf0…
10-28 12:02:14	Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x503aee…
10-27 22:05:11	Will Robinhood say "Prediction" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x26db0f…
10-27 21:06:44	Will Robinhood say "Trump" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0xc8e4ff…
10-27 21:05:33	Will Robinhood say "Perp" / "Perpetual" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa98b65…
10-27 21:03:53	Will Robinhood say "Agent" / "Agentic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xe7202d…
10-27 13:32:20	Will Coca-Cola say "China" 4+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xc66bf6…
10-27 13:32:20	Will Coca-Cola say "Oil" / "Gas" / "Gasoline" during earnings call?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xb48e57…
10-27 13:32:20	Will Coca-Cola say "Powerade" during earnings call?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x96a2cf…
10-27 13:32:20	Will Coca-Cola say "Refund" during earnings call?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x538019…
10-27 12:40:32	Will Coca-Cola say "Middle East" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x9c25ea…
10-27 12:39:20	Will Coca-Cola say "World Cup" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xfe77af…
10-27 12:38:09	Will Coca-Cola say "Mexico" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x28be88…
10-27 12:35:59	Will Coca-Cola say "Zero Sugar" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xfdea07…
10-26 13:17:32	Will Verizon say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" 15+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x04f60e…
10-26 13:16:27	Will Verizon say "Broadband" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xe4dd44…
10-26 13:12:39	Will Verizon say "Satellite" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x53b099…
10-26 13:10:24	Will Verizon say "Starlink" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xffc935…
10-26 13:10:24	Will Verizon say "Starlink" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	16	73¢	$11	0xfab681…
10-26 12:43:39	Will Verizon say "Infrastructure" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xca9ed7…
10-26 12:39:59	Will Verizon say "Verizon One" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x940850…
10-26 12:39:56	Will Verizon say "Simplicity" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x580204…
10-22 13:37:23	Will Procter & Gamble say "Advertising" during earnings call?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xdee5e8…
10-22 13:37:21	Will Procter & Gamble say "Toothpaste" during earnings call?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xe72ed3…
10-22 13:37:21	Will Procter & Gamble say "Old Spice" during earnings call?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x6d5d21…
10-22 13:37:21	Will Procter & Gamble say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" during earnings call?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x5bc8bf…
10-21 20:00:29	Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x29ae20…
10-21 20:00:27	Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	43	97¢	$41	0xf68c14…
10-21 20:00:23	Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xff9f28…
10-21 20:00:23	Will "Nordic" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xceae5b…
10-21 20:00:23	Will "Legality" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xa2a4f7…
10-21 20:00:23	Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x3b27bc…
10-21 20:00:23	Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x1d02fd…
10-21 20:00:15	Will "Green" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x6b2bc7…
10-21 20:00:12	Will "Car" or "Vehicle" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x24965a…
10-21 11:47:56	Will Andy Burnham say "Immigration" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$34	0xc68307…