Puzzling-Refund — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$158

Unrealized P&L

+$70

Hit rate

7.5%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

4,169 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$357

$16.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$306

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 11-02 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 43% +$544

Other

16% 17% -$130

Sports

2% 35% -$2

Politics

2% 0% $0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	+201	$75	78¢	$157	+$82	09-30 09:57
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+76	$50	64¢	$49	-$2	10-13 11:25
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+75	$23	51¢	$38	+$15	10-13 13:24
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+118	$50	30¢	$36	-$14	11-02 18:17
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+104	$22	18¢	$18	-$4	10-13 13:23
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+24	$6	20¢	$5	-$1	11-02 14:05
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+435	$10	1¢	$3	-$7	06-07 14:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$428	400	400	+0	No	-$4	09-21 09:59
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	3	$370	325	325	+0	Yes	+$279	07-18 22:52
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	2	$170	154	154	+0	open	—	07-10 10:24
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	3	$154	261	0	+261	Yes	-$53	10-03 06:33
ethereum above 1400 on june 13 2026	6	$139	77	77	+0	Yes	-$3	06-07 11:48
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	3	$135	306	146	+160	Spain	-$33	07-14 20:24
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	6	$129	227	227	+0	Yes	-$73	09-28 22:22
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	9	$116	102	102	+0	Under	+$16	07-14 19:43
bitcoin above 58k on june 8 2026	2	$105	58	58	+0	Yes	+$5	06-07 09:10
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$103	67	67	+0	No	+$3	07-14 19:48
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in September?	2	$89	131	0	+131	Yes	-$89	09-26 07:42
will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 7	4	$87	51	51	+0	No	$0	06-07 11:25
bitcoin above 56k on june 9 2026	4	$87	45	45	+0	Yes	-$1	06-07 11:48
bitcoin above 62k on june 7 2026	4	$80	50	50	+0	Yes	+$1	06-07 11:41
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	2	$75	201	0	+201	open	—	09-30 09:57
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	2	$70	45	45	+0	Yes	+$20	06-07 16:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$52	42	42	+0	No	-$8	06-12 17:19
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	1	$50	87	0	+87	No	-$50	10-01 10:27
bitcoin above 64k on june 7 2026	4	$50	67	67	+0	No	$0	06-07 11:48
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	76	0	+76	open	—	10-13 11:25
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	2	$50	118	0	+118	open	—	11-02 18:17
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	1	$50	77	0	+77	open	—	10-13 11:24
bitcoin above 50k on june 13 2026	2	$50	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 10:35
bitcoin above 52k on june 13 2026	2	$50	26	26	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 11:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 16:30 UTC	8	$49	85	0	+85	Down	-$49	07-07 16:31
bitcoin above 60k on june 7 2026 159	2	$49	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 10:45
will bitcoin dip to 59k on june 7	2	$48	25	25	+0	No	+$0	06-07 11:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7?	2	$48	26	26	+0	No	$0	06-07 11:48
bitcoin above 56k on june 11 2026	2	$48	26	26	+0	Yes	-$1	06-07 11:48
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 2pt5	4	$47	63	63	+0	Over	-$1	07-15 19:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 18:17:43	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	42¢	$29	0x941bd5…
11-02 16:52:43	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xb21f55…
11-02 14:05:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xee721d…
11-02 14:05:39	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	24	25¢	$6	0xbaeb44…
11-02 14:05:39	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x283b94…
11-02 14:05:36	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	48	15¢	$7	0xd4f9a0…
11-02 14:05:36	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x6a9d98…
10-29 01:15:20	Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x2c06ad…
10-27 23:29:44	Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0x1b163b…
10-27 23:27:29	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	195	7¢	$13	0x70db6f…
10-27 23:26:45	Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	33	7¢	$2	0xf47786…
10-27 23:26:24	Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	166	7¢	$11	0x61ed08…
10-27 23:26:23	Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x902609…
10-27 07:39:32	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xd61f5f…
10-27 07:06:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x429807…
10-26 21:53:00	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xf59413…
10-26 21:47:06	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?	No	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x485d0b…
10-26 21:38:29	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xeafd2b…
10-26 14:09:20	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc67931…
10-26 14:09:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xdb4f15…
10-25 18:23:15	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x6df10d…
10-13 13:24:46	Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0x023de8…
10-13 13:24:44	Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xcede8b…
10-13 13:23:16	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	BUY	104	21¢	$22	0x198167…
10-13 13:22:07	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x056bb4…
10-13 11:25:34	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xbef7ae…
10-13 11:24:44	James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x0e0cd5…
10-04 13:52:38	Jaylen Waddle: Receptions O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xc07e30…
10-04 13:51:40	Jakobi Meyers: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5	Under	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0x49c931…
10-04 13:50:22	1H Spread: Vikings (-7.5)	Vikings	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xd24568…
10-04 13:49:20	Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 42.5	Under	BUY	70	29¢	$20	0xdcf1e2…
10-03 06:33:59	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x31f3d8…
10-01 10:27:42	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0x11597f…
10-01 09:52:23	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in october 2026	Yes	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x8956de…
09-30 09:57:47	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	BUY	101	38¢	$38	0x55c404…
09-30 06:00:17	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xae9daf…
09-28 22:22:00	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	SELL	227	12¢	$28	0xbd3d9c…
09-27 08:09:57	Jonathan Taylor: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5	Over	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xcfb0ad…
09-27 07:58:48	Bucky Irving: Anytime Touchdown	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x95e01a…
09-27 07:56:57	Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5	Under	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x9c53aa…
09-27 07:56:05	Patriots vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5	Under	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x6eaf4b…
09-26 07:42:51	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in September?	No	BUY	31	66¢	$21	0x5e8ebb…
09-26 07:19:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in September?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x415605…
09-24 16:01:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	70	52¢	$36	0xe30db9…
09-24 16:01:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	60	39¢	$23	0x5f3f50…
09-24 15:59:29	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt3 before 2027	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x6c7408…
09-24 15:59:23	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1bd558…
09-24 15:42:36	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x0859c9…
09-24 15:42:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	48	45¢	$22	0x5539b1…
09-24 15:42:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	49	42¢	$21	0xe67912…
09-24 15:42:30	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	52	41¢	$22	0x2d6a4c…
09-24 15:42:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	41¢	$21	0x11eeaa…
09-24 15:40:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x14d42e…
09-23 08:23:40	will msft reach 502 50 by september 21 2026 from september 22	No	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x9c3d20…
09-23 08:23:40	will msft dip to 495 by september 21 2026 from september 22	Yes	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0x1ab6f0…
09-23 08:23:38	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xdc320d…
09-23 08:23:37	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xfe0933…
09-23 08:23:37	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	17	91¢	$15	0x405def…
09-23 08:23:35	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc67ecd…
09-23 08:22:55	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x1ac705…
09-23 08:22:52	will meta dip to 730 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x45899c…
09-23 08:22:50	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7b2bfb…
09-23 08:15:20	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x6b9038…
09-23 08:15:05	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x1681ec…
09-23 08:14:58	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x5ec76d…
09-23 08:14:26	will meta dip to 730 by september 21 2026	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x6214ce…
09-23 08:13:32	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x1fca4b…
09-23 08:12:47	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $720 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xe36184…
09-23 08:12:20	will meta dip to 730 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x8be2cd…
09-23 08:11:14	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 21 above $730?	Yes	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0x60eed3…
09-23 08:10:01	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 21 above $720?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7cf8de…
09-23 08:09:16	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x56876f…
09-23 08:08:44	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xc5638b…
09-23 08:07:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0x296f38…
09-23 08:06:07	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of September 21 above $350?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x1c4f5a…
09-21 09:59:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	53¢	$212	0x6e094b…
09-21 07:05:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	54¢	$216	0x35727b…
09-20 14:50:46	Dolphins vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5	Over	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x9397d3…
09-20 14:49:39	Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5	Over	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x18edc5…
09-20 14:48:46	Chase Brown: Receptions O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xe71ae8…
09-20 14:47:52	DK Metcalf: Receptions O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x4b1caf…
09-20 07:35:40	Chris Godwin Jr.: Receptions O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf31034…
09-20 07:35:01	Bucky Irving: Anytime Touchdown	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3b9812…
09-20 07:32:49	nfl pit ne 2026 09 20 rec rico dowdle 2pt5	Over	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe66ae9…
09-20 07:31:34	Devaughn Vele: Receptions O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x39a4e5…
09-20 07:30:14	Spread: Patriots (-4.5)	Patriots	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x96034d…
09-20 07:28:56	nfl pit ne 2026 09 20 rec treveyon henderson 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xed4098…
09-20 07:27:04	Chuba Hubbard: Receptions O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x115794…
09-19 13:38:00	Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 3 Hull City AFC?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xce9b8b…
09-18 22:34:13	cfb buf pennst 2026 09 19 total 49pt5	Over	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xdac82e…
09-18 19:50:04	Exact Score: Brentford FC 0 - 0 Chelsea FC?	Yes	SELL	106	18¢	$20	0xa1eb37…
09-18 18:38:42	Colorado vs. Northwestern	Colorado	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x485985…
09-18 17:27:07	Exact Score: Brentford FC 0 - 0 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	106	4¢	$4	0x97f3ac…
09-15 19:14:30	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-15?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd5df56…
09-15 10:20:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x8d06fa…
09-12 13:29:55	Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x9b1f6f…
09-12 13:28:31	Stockport County FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x99913a…
09-07 06:43:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 06:40 UTC	Down	BUY	33	56¢	$19	0x4a654c…
09-07 00:23:22	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xf41081…
09-06 23:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0xce2cc3…