Nocturnal-Precedent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

Trades

155

lifetime

Volume

$220

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 05-20 10:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

67% — —

Crypto

26% — —

Politics

4% 0% $-1

Sports

2% 100% +$12

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 76k on april 16	5	$18	484	450	+34	open	—	04-16 14:03
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	5	$16	21	8	+13	open	—	02-24 15:46
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	3	$12	6	9	-4	open	—	01-15 12:33
bitcoin above 80k on april 19	8	$11	261	190	+71	open	—	04-18 19:00
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-17 18:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	5	$9	2,713	1,357	+1,357	open	—	01-03 21:18
maduro in us custody by january 31	4	$8	2,443	2,443	+0	open	—	01-03 17:16
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	4	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	04-17 23:16
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	6	$7	23	13	+10	open	—	05-19 13:40
will saudi arabia strike yemen by january 31 173	4	$6	84	84	+0	open	—	01-04 19:44
will end of beginning djo be the 1 song on spotify this week	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	01-03 16:44
will solana reach 200 in january 2026	2	$6	214	214	+0	open	—	01-03 16:31
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$6	40	40	+0	open	—	05-20 10:07
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$5	16	16	+0	open	—	05-20 10:06
will donald trump say maduro at least ten times during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday 826	3	$4	103	2	+101	open	—	01-03 17:26
maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	4	$4	161	161	+0	open	—	01-12 14:19
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	01-09 13:49
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$4	16	16	+0	open	—	01-03 20:03
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$4	8	8	+0	open	—	05-19 13:52
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be between 40m and 45m	2	$4	11	11	+0	open	—	01-04 18:24
bitcoin above 80k on april 20	3	$3	91	85	+6	open	—	04-19 19:11
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase december 30 january 5	1	$3	21	0	+21	open	—	01-04 18:31
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$3	15	15	+0	open	—	05-20 10:06
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$3	17	17	+0	open	—	05-19 13:30
bitcoin above 84k on april 23	3	$3	50	50	+0	open	—	04-20 05:13
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$3	15	0	+15	Sean Strickland	+$12	05-08 07:06
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$3	10	10	+0	open	—	05-19 13:41
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3	22	0	+22	open	—	04-17 19:31
btc updown 5m 1776662700	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-20 05:29
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	2	$2	5	5	+0	open	—	01-14 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 10:07:03	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x927781…
05-20 10:06:56	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x9f0474…
05-20 10:06:42	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x20d95d…
05-19 14:01:23	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x95086f…
05-19 14:00:57	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x9ca5ac…
05-19 14:00:03	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x96bf90…
05-19 13:52:17	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x5a1faa…
05-19 13:42:20	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x7c39b7…
05-19 13:41:47	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	26	10¢	$3	0x02a905…
05-19 13:41:09	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xf231f9…
05-19 13:40:37	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x536261…
05-19 13:40:27	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xe23864…
05-19 13:31:24	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0xea6831…
05-19 13:30:04	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xd82ce8…
05-18 08:47:30	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdfcd6f…
05-18 08:46:50	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x17c051…
05-17 19:23:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xbdf0fd…
05-17 19:05:34	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4401b5…
05-17 18:49:42	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x588eae…
05-17 18:43:29	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xb29811…
05-17 18:42:31	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x028ada…
05-17 18:41:11	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x1e1065…
05-17 18:14:10	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xa0c3c6…
05-17 18:13:30	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x09b875…
05-15 11:16:21	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0xaa0858…
05-15 11:13:52	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xff02df…
05-15 11:12:56	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xcdbb60…
05-15 11:12:32	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xe12062…
05-15 11:12:13	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xe7ed33…
05-11 12:47:28	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa57bc1…
05-11 12:47:26	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xdf0f32…
05-10 18:29:15	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x681b5b…
05-08 07:06:09	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x03925c…
05-04 07:14:36	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0xed3700…
04-20 05:32:22	btc updown 5m 1776663000	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x0daa12…
04-20 05:29:50	btc updown 5m 1776662700	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x247f4c…
04-20 05:23:08	btc updown 5m 1776662700	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x03427b…
04-20 05:13:14	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x6235d4…
04-19 19:11:50	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	SELL	85	1¢	$1	0xe2849c…
04-19 12:14:28	Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$0	0xd5f14f…
04-18 19:00:46	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x91235f…
04-18 19:00:06	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	SELL	190	1¢	$1	0x426be3…
04-18 18:55:26	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0xeabab6…
04-18 13:54:26	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x2776f3…
04-18 13:53:08	Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$0	0x4910e9…
04-18 13:52:02	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0x2208c6…
04-18 06:47:34	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$2	0x497775…
04-18 06:33:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x9babe5…
04-17 23:17:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x452818…
04-17 23:16:58	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xc9529a…
04-17 22:49:38	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x0358c4…
04-17 21:04:56	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x6a7ae6…
04-17 20:56:48	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xe81491…
04-17 20:17:04	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6d525c…
04-17 20:13:32	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x1713aa…
04-17 20:05:06	Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xcce1b9…
04-17 20:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x44d8de…
04-17 19:39:14	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xb5b208…
04-17 19:31:52	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x55c7e8…
04-17 19:31:34	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4a2a9e…
04-17 13:44:28	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0x962904…
04-16 17:00:18	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x55d7b8…
04-16 16:58:08	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xdb75de…
04-16 16:40:26	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd87ab6…
04-16 16:39:56	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x9a3327…
04-16 16:39:10	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x4a87d8…
04-16 14:03:24	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	388	1¢	$3	0x0b0548…
04-16 14:02:52	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x21ecda…
04-16 13:55:24	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	BUY	429	1¢	$3	0xa24f63…
04-16 13:48:04	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	52	2¢	$1	0x1cb8b5…
04-15 19:28:14	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	BUY	55	20¢	$11	0x984fc7…
02-24 15:47:00	will movie a win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards 551	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x492242…
02-24 15:46:42	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xb39915…
02-22 09:35:46	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x479aae…
02-18 20:03:10	ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	Strickland	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xdfbad5…
02-18 20:02:16	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x7379d9…
01-15 18:50:30	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x78a707…
01-15 17:53:34	will trump say american dream during wef address on january 21	No	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xc61d18…
01-15 13:58:54	will trump say globalist or global during wef address on january 21	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xcbdc4e…
01-15 12:37:50	bitcoin above 98k on january 15	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x16f5fe…
01-15 12:33:40	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	SELL	9	84¢	$8	0xfc45b2…
01-14 16:19:46	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4a51ef…
01-14 16:18:52	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x8e1377…
01-12 14:19:28	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x1056ec…
01-12 14:19:12	maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	Yes	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0xf7ab7c…
01-09 16:05:16	will trump say maga or make america great again this week january 18	No	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0x0e3380…
01-09 15:59:10	maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0xf87e8c…
01-09 15:58:56	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x835f54…
01-09 14:08:22	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa652de…
01-09 14:08:02	will dwayne johnson be nominated for best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	11	5¢	$1	0xe45824…
01-09 14:08:02	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0xb16a30…
01-09 13:50:24	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xa13ea3…
01-09 13:49:32	will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xa85fd7…
01-08 20:06:58	spx up or down on january 8 2026	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x95fae9…
01-07 22:04:19	new stranger things episode released by wednesday	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x21e739…
01-07 13:31:19	new stranger things episode released by wednesday	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x4bbe0b…
01-07 13:25:07	will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc9bf18…
01-05 18:08:45	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xc1eb7f…
01-05 18:06:51	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xd33c6a…
01-05 18:01:31	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xd086e7…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	45	$6.22K	1,555	05-20 03:32
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	40	$5.81K	2,417	05-20 07:12
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	37	$101.6K	2,833	05-19 20:40
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	34	$4.41K	540	05-11 23:47
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	34	$3.67K	2,389	05-18 13:24
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	31	$58.2K	4,943	05-01 09:47
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	31	$7.58K	3,773	04-23 08:12
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	30	$27.6K	404	05-20 00:37