Nocturnal-Precedent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$63

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

21.8%

Resolved

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$248

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-20 12:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

66% 21% -$44

Crypto

23% 7% -$32

Sports

7% 100% +$17

Politics

4% 17% -$5

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes		-18	-$1	1¢	$-0	+$1	05-15 17:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 76k on april 16	5	$18	484	450	+34	No	-$10	04-16 14:03
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	5	$16	21	8	+13	No	-$9	02-24 15:46
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	3	$12	6	9	-4	Yes	$0	01-15 12:33
bitcoin above 80k on april 19	8	$11	261	190	+71	No	-$8	04-18 19:00
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	05-17 18:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	5	$9	2,713	1,357	+1,357	No	-$4	01-03 21:18
maduro in us custody by january 31	4	$8	2,443	2,443	+0	Yes	-$4	01-03 17:16
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	4	$7	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-17 23:16
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	6	$7	23	13	+10	Yes	-$2	05-19 13:40
will saudi arabia strike yemen by january 31 173	4	$6	84	84	+0	Yes	+$0	01-04 19:44
will end of beginning djo be the 1 song on spotify this week	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	01-03 16:44
will solana reach 200 in january 2026	2	$6	214	214	+0	No	$0	01-03 16:31
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$6	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	05-20 10:07
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$5	16	16	+0	No	-$2	05-20 10:06
will donald trump say maduro at least ten times during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday 826	3	$4	103	2	+101	Yes	+$0	01-03 17:26
Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?	2	$4	10	10	+0	open	—	05-15 11:10
maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	4	$4	161	161	+0	No	+$0	01-12 14:19
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	3	$4	22	22	+0	No	-$1	05-04 07:08
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	01-09 13:49
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$4	10	0	+10	Spain	-$4	07-19 06:20
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	4	$4	69	69	+0	open	—	08-20 12:47
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$4	16	16	+0	No	-$2	01-03 20:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	3	$4	11	11	+0	open	—	06-28 05:27
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$4	8	8	+0	No	$0	05-19 13:52
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be between 40m and 45m	2	$4	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	01-04 18:24
bitcoin above 80k on april 20	3	$3	91	85	+6	No	-$2	04-19 19:11
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase december 30 january 5	1	$3	21	0	+21	Yes	-$3	01-04 18:31
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$3	15	15	+0	Yes	-$3	05-20 10:06
Will Alex Pereira be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?	3	$3	84	84	+0	open	—	06-15 09:46
cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	3	$3	85	85	+0	No	$0	06-21 08:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 12:47:00	Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	1¢	$1	0xd4f185…
08-05 09:11:56	Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0x6c1628…
08-02 01:44:42	Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x3ff3e4…
07-19 06:20:24	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xfa1cdb…
06-28 05:27:05	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0xf4c945…
06-21 08:53:08	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$1	0xf8418f…
06-19 11:51:29	Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	1¢	$1	0x6f38f4…
06-19 11:46:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x5b0db5…
06-19 11:46:41	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0xae0857…
06-19 11:40:56	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x93edd4…
06-15 09:46:57	Will Alex Pereira be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	0¢	$0	0xb89b17…
06-11 18:20:52	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0x3a4da9…
06-11 18:19:39	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xdf9e17…
06-11 18:18:42	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd5cc5b…
05-20 10:07:03	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x927781…
05-20 10:06:56	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x9f0474…
05-20 10:06:42	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x20d95d…
05-19 14:01:23	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x95086f…
05-19 14:00:57	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x9ca5ac…
05-19 14:00:03	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x96bf90…
05-19 13:52:17	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x5a1faa…
05-19 13:42:20	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x7c39b7…
05-19 13:41:47	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	26	10¢	$3	0x02a905…
05-19 13:41:09	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xf231f9…
05-19 13:40:37	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x536261…
05-19 13:40:27	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xe23864…
05-19 13:31:24	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0xea6831…
05-19 13:30:04	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xd82ce8…
05-18 08:47:30	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdfcd6f…
05-18 08:46:50	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x17c051…
05-17 19:23:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xbdf0fd…
05-17 19:05:34	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4401b5…
05-17 18:49:42	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x588eae…
05-17 18:43:29	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xb29811…
05-17 18:42:31	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x028ada…
05-17 18:41:11	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x1e1065…
05-17 18:14:10	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xa0c3c6…
05-17 18:13:30	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x09b875…
05-15 17:03:28	Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0x04b020…
05-15 11:17:57	Will Alex Pereira be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0xcc8bda…
05-15 11:16:21	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0xaa0858…
05-15 11:13:52	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xff02df…
05-15 11:12:56	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xcdbb60…
05-15 11:12:32	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xe12062…
05-15 11:12:13	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xe7ed33…
05-15 11:10:29	Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x26c21b…
05-11 12:47:28	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa57bc1…
05-11 12:47:26	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xdf0f32…
05-10 18:29:15	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x681b5b…
05-10 11:20:14	Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x42a9d1…
05-10 10:51:32	Will Alex Pereira be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x4197a1…
05-08 07:06:09	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x03925c…
05-08 07:05:39	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xa0849b…
05-04 07:14:36	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0xed3700…
05-04 07:08:50	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0x623c19…
04-20 05:32:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x0daa12…
04-20 05:29:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 05:25 UTC	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x247f4c…
04-20 05:23:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x03427b…
04-20 05:13:14	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x6235d4…
04-19 19:11:50	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	SELL	85	1¢	$1	0xe2849c…
04-19 12:14:28	Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$0	0xd5f14f…
04-18 19:00:46	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x91235f…
04-18 19:00:06	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	SELL	190	1¢	$1	0x426be3…
04-18 18:55:26	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0xeabab6…
04-18 13:54:26	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x2776f3…
04-18 13:53:08	Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$0	0x4910e9…
04-18 13:52:02	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0x2208c6…
04-18 06:47:34	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$2	0x497775…
04-18 06:33:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x9babe5…
04-17 23:17:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x452818…
04-17 23:16:58	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xc9529a…
04-17 22:49:38	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x0358c4…
04-17 21:04:56	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x6a7ae6…
04-17 20:56:48	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xe81491…
04-17 20:17:04	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6d525c…
04-17 20:13:32	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x1713aa…
04-17 20:05:06	Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xcce1b9…
04-17 20:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x44d8de…
04-17 19:39:14	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xb5b208…
04-17 19:31:52	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x55c7e8…
04-17 19:31:34	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4a2a9e…
04-17 13:44:28	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0x962904…
04-16 17:00:18	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x55d7b8…
04-16 16:58:08	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xdb75de…
04-16 16:40:26	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd87ab6…
04-16 16:39:56	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x9a3327…
04-16 16:39:10	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x4a87d8…
04-16 14:03:24	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	388	1¢	$3	0x0b0548…
04-16 14:02:52	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x21ecda…
04-16 13:55:24	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	BUY	429	1¢	$3	0xa24f63…
04-16 13:48:04	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	SELL	52	2¢	$1	0x1cb8b5…
04-15 19:28:14	bitcoin above 76k on april 16	Yes	BUY	55	20¢	$11	0x984fc7…
02-24 15:47:00	will movie a win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards 551	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x492242…
02-24 15:46:42	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xb39915…
02-22 09:35:46	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x479aae…
02-18 20:03:10	ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	Strickland	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xdfbad5…
02-18 20:02:16	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x7379d9…
01-15 18:50:30	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x78a707…
01-15 17:53:34	will trump say american dream during wef address on january 21	No	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xc61d18…
01-15 13:58:54	will trump say globalist or global during wef address on january 21	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xcbdc4e…