Possible-Drag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$9.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-22 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% — —

Politics

34% 67% +$3

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+24	$2	6¢	$2	$-0	06-22 09:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	9	$694	356	356	+0	open	—	05-10 21:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	10	$602	358	272	+86	No	+$1	05-08 10:17
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	6	$344	264	264	+0	open	—	04-14 09:11
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	6	$342	179	179	+0	open	—	04-24 13:05
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	6	$327	169	169	+0	open	—	04-02 04:42
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	4	$205	107	107	+0	open	—	03-31 15:44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	8	$191	241	241	+0	open	—	05-13 03:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$182	246	246	+0	No	+$0	05-10 07:04
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	2	$182	92	92	+0	open	—	04-23 00:46
military action against iran ends on march 31 2026	2	$182	97	97	+0	open	—	03-24 21:54
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	2	$181	91	91	+0	open	—	04-21 00:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$181	91	91	+0	open	—	04-22 15:21
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$180	92	92	+0	open	—	04-30 22:05
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$180	96	96	+0	open	—	04-25 04:22
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	6	$177	227	227	+0	open	—	04-25 22:58
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$176	173	173	+0	open	—	04-04 16:09
will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$171	89	89	+0	open	—	04-09 09:03
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	7	$170	288	288	+0	open	—	03-31 04:47
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$170	176	176	+0	open	—	04-11 05:47
will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$170	86	86	+0	open	—	04-07 14:34
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$166	84	84	+0	open	—	03-19 11:28
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$166	84	84	+0	open	—	04-26 15:01
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	3	$165	86	86	+0	open	—	04-23 12:41
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 200 219	4	$165	86	86	+0	open	—	03-18 07:54
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	2	$165	88	88	+0	open	—	03-26 00:28
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$165	86	86	+0	open	—	04-21 07:17
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	3	$164	84	84	+0	open	—	03-24 13:35
will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	2	$164	84	84	+0	open	—	03-24 04:13
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	2	$164	89	89	+0	open	—	03-31 21:41
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	4	$164	85	85	+0	open	—	04-25 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:25:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$2	0x22d785…
06-08 08:28:31	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	34	91¢	$31	0x8a2099…
05-22 01:34:53	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x236898…
05-18 22:25:17	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	58	4¢	$2	0x8000e7…
05-18 22:25:15	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x67baab…
05-18 22:25:15	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x4effec…
05-13 06:37:55	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	49	3¢	$1	0x092d25…
05-13 03:26:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x15c267…
05-13 03:26:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$1	0x817301…
05-13 03:26:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x5b97da…
05-13 03:25:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0x7a7a90…
05-13 00:40:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	2¢	$2	0xaffdad…
05-12 17:37:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	63	95¢	$60	0x923c4d…
05-12 14:39:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0xdec121…
05-12 04:32:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x2adcea…
05-12 04:31:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0x5977fc…
05-12 03:04:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	96	97¢	$94	0x4438a3…
05-11 12:26:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	158	6¢	$10	0x74cc7f…
05-11 10:04:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	158	6¢	$10	0x5efce5…
05-10 21:29:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x05cc28…
05-10 19:38:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x80fda3…
05-10 07:04:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	4¢	$4	0xc04ee7…
05-10 07:04:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	4¢	$2	0x1dbb54…
05-10 05:38:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	4¢	$3	0xcf47f6…
05-10 05:38:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0x4d7b5b…
05-09 09:52:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	88	96¢	$85	0x03421a…
05-09 08:04:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	88	96¢	$85	0xace536…
05-09 03:31:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$85	0xce6f28…
05-09 01:39:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x5ec2c4…
05-09 01:39:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x5619ba…
05-08 20:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	87	97¢	$85	0x094f68…
05-08 18:29:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	87	98¢	$85	0x91bf62…
05-08 10:17:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	86	98¢	$84	0x3a74a3…
05-08 06:07:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	96	96¢	$92	0x6d1a00…
05-08 06:06:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$93	0xb9091d…
05-07 22:02:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0xa236fe…
05-07 22:02:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	4¢	$4	0x0edfe2…
05-07 19:37:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x759ab5…
05-07 19:37:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	3¢	$2	0x6769da…
05-07 08:47:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	46	92¢	$42	0xdc4856…
05-07 08:47:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0x28f1ee…
05-07 04:21:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	89	95¢	$85	0x27322c…
05-07 03:47:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0x4e59d3…
05-07 02:05:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0xd1c262…
05-07 02:05:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0xb72faa…
05-06 21:10:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	89	95¢	$84	0xbf15ee…
05-06 06:57:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0xe0824d…
05-06 06:57:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	6¢	$5	0x33e115…
05-06 04:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	5¢	$7	0x8c88eb…
05-06 01:26:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	94	98¢	$92	0x2d4fa4…
05-05 23:55:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	94	97¢	$91	0x139b5a…
05-05 13:07:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	3¢	$6	0x23e0ed…
05-05 11:56:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	3¢	$2	0xa88f42…
05-05 11:56:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x2cbaa5…
05-05 11:56:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	3¢	$3	0x0950d2…
04-30 22:05:28	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	92	98¢	$90	0x00f945…
04-30 20:44:40	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	92	97¢	$90	0x532e6c…
04-30 11:55:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0xa547ac…
04-30 11:55:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x8eecd5…
04-30 07:44:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x1ffcd7…
04-29 23:19:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	SELL	291	1¢	$3	0xcc35f0…
04-29 18:06:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	295	2¢	$5	0x9cf301…
04-27 17:04:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	SELL	284	4¢	$11	0x77115f…
04-27 11:55:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	284	3¢	$9	0xca690d…
04-27 08:06:10	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x58471b…
04-27 06:11:24	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0xa64a8f…
04-26 15:01:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xca381c…
04-26 15:01:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x28c3d4…
04-26 12:02:08	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$83	0x1dc570…
04-25 22:58:28	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	139	5¢	$6	0xee218d…
04-25 20:55:38	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0x81934f…
04-25 20:55:38	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x16704b…
04-25 17:28:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x4eba26…
04-25 17:28:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0xa0bcbc…
04-25 13:14:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x9a9f4a…
04-25 13:14:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$64	0x9370ad…
04-25 04:22:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	96	94¢	$90	0x8b7821…
04-25 02:06:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0x908a47…
04-24 16:02:02	Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	6¢	$10	0x59a05f…
04-24 14:09:14	Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	5¢	$9	0xf63e62…
04-24 13:05:08	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xe8b0af…
04-24 11:24:22	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0xb8cc64…
04-24 05:54:26	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x542032…
04-24 05:53:46	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$2	0xf60088…
04-24 05:53:46	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x951763…
04-24 05:53:46	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	2¢	$3	0x87acaf…
04-24 03:18:48	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	2¢	$7	0x983042…
04-23 21:18:00	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x366818…
04-23 21:18:00	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	85	92¢	$78	0x01f746…
04-23 17:06:32	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	88	94¢	$83	0x135933…
04-23 12:41:50	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	74	96¢	$71	0x43286d…
04-23 12:41:50	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x2ac090…
04-23 08:36:22	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	86	96¢	$82	0x05b4ef…
04-23 03:41:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0x517e21…
04-23 03:00:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	SELL	109	1¢	$1	0xff097b…
04-23 02:50:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x6e21a9…
04-23 02:40:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x263032…
04-23 00:59:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x75d061…
04-23 00:59:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x3d22bd…
04-23 00:46:36	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xdc9556…