Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

56.4%

Resolved

105

Trades

116

lifetime

Volume

$148

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-06 13:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

82% 57% +$2

Politics

16% 53% $0

Tech

2% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes		+1	$1	95¢	$1	+$0	11-01 05:34
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No		+1	$1	70¢	$1	$0	11-06 13:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$0	09-05 13:48
will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-29 10:31
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	2	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	10-27 23:56
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-22 00:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	1	$2	8	0	+8	Yes	-$2	07-23 01:42
Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	1	$2	6	0	+6	No	-$2	08-15 18:12
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-20 15:53
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-11 20:36
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?	1	$2	10	0	+10	No	-$2	08-22 10:59
will trump say think about it during remarks in new york 20260811183234684	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	08-12 04:49
will trump say barack hussein obama during remarks in new york 20260811183234695	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	08-13 00:57
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	09-03 23:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	1	$2	8	0	+8	Yes	-$2	08-01 15:23
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	-$2	08-20 07:02
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	1	$2	8	0	+8	Yes	-$2	08-11 12:30
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-19 03:53
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	08-16 17:53
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	2	$2	5	0	+5	No	-$1	10-26 23:34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-15 10:09
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-11 20:44
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-16 06:58
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-22 21:33
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-23 05:45
will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-25 13:45
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	-$2	08-01 03:26
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	0	+4	cancelled	$0	07-26 01:49
way quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt4	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-26 13:53
will xauusd dip to 4000 by july 27 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	07-27 15:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-24 01:44
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	-$2	07-28 23:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 13:02:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x35130b…
11-06 01:13:18	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa3a4e6…
11-05 17:09:06	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x655c10…
11-05 09:04:33	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x70e184…
11-04 22:49:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x26f38f…
11-03 01:03:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0bd0ed…
11-02 17:03:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x426e08…
11-02 09:03:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xec2d09…
11-02 01:03:12	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x62a5f5…
11-01 16:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9f16b1…
11-01 05:34:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe35218…
10-31 06:05:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcfd907…
10-30 21:18:48	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x0a0e38…
10-30 08:50:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xaaab3b…
10-29 20:50:22	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3cc1f3…
10-29 12:10:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x5cb60d…
10-29 03:59:56	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x731046…
10-28 07:56:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb41f45…
10-27 23:56:17	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8bf9f5…
10-27 23:53:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x998d58…
10-26 23:34:44	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x05cbf3…
10-26 23:25:03	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x388eca…
10-25 01:52:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbe862c…
10-24 15:36:38	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf16493…
10-24 07:12:41	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdf9247…
10-21 23:01:24	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xaae1d5…
10-21 14:51:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xfb90c8…
10-21 06:51:21	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2735a9…
10-17 22:37:11	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5edcbc…
10-17 14:35:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x877d5d…
10-16 16:01:51	wti closes above 97 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xeec665…
10-16 07:56:37	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1683b7…
10-15 11:29:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe8b3a0…
10-15 03:17:29	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x23555f…
10-10 19:02:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa9a4cb…
10-09 10:10:06	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa68928…
10-09 02:09:47	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x2381ec…
10-07 04:16:39	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x82d701…
10-03 04:41:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x42d01f…
10-02 06:08:15	spx up or down on october 2 2026	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4fca22…
10-01 17:15:54	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x83f6ea…
09-29 08:23:21	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x40a92e…
09-27 10:03:23	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9eba8b…
09-27 01:51:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x3b7194…
09-26 17:18:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xacaded…
09-24 06:01:47	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe65d1e…
09-23 18:01:25	will ewy reach 188 by september 21 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x89fb5e…
09-23 09:57:49	will ukraine target moscow on september 26 2026	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x214f73…
09-23 00:21:49	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xfc20a6…
09-22 04:04:28	will pltr dip to 180 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf9316e…
09-20 19:46:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x613aa4…
09-20 07:48:16	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x35f5b8…
09-19 21:59:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x31b366…
09-19 07:46:07	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xae631f…
09-18 23:41:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x22eeab…
09-18 14:35:55	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x825072…
09-18 05:51:04	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x63cc58…
09-17 20:16:15	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x57b758…
09-17 12:09:04	will amzn reach 252 by september 14 2026	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2e7871…
09-17 04:01:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x43f197…
09-16 19:59:58	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" 5+ times during his remarks in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x264b2d…
09-16 11:48:52	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4b9c93…
09-16 03:48:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x279307…
09-16 03:47:58	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd9509d…
09-14 19:46:16	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf894d6…
09-13 11:05:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3b8e9b…
09-13 00:07:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6d88e5…
09-12 15:00:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9a8811…
09-12 06:58:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa82763…
09-09 20:15:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x23b7cd…
09-08 23:43:57	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x15c848…
09-08 15:31:04	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x65a108…
09-08 07:12:39	laptop airdrop by september 9	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5954d4…
09-07 20:18:24	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3e9e87…
09-07 12:09:37	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x51533f…
09-05 13:48:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xcb05b3…
09-03 23:12:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x069fd2…
08-23 05:45:31	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x9aac14…
08-22 21:33:46	Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xecc88c…
08-22 10:59:12	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xa1b5ff…
08-22 00:12:37	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xfafd31…
08-20 15:53:28	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xdccde0…
08-20 07:02:04	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x6cf8d6…
08-19 03:53:52	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8f6e20…
08-16 17:53:07	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc6fcdf…
08-16 06:58:58	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xc6f540…
08-15 18:12:31	Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x064e64…
08-15 10:09:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x53ff98…
08-13 00:57:37	will trump say barack hussein obama during remarks in new york 20260811183234695	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x0c92bb…
08-12 04:49:04	will trump say think about it during remarks in new york 20260811183234684	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc24349…
08-11 20:44:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x040aba…
08-11 20:36:12	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xab2000…
08-11 12:30:07	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x76bfa5…
08-01 15:23:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x726bed…
08-01 03:26:47	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xee3622…
07-31 19:26:06	another pandemic before gta vi	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x323878…
07-31 11:25:45	msft up or down on july 31 2026	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x67364a…
07-30 01:11:00	will trump say iran or israel 10 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357439	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x74d2d9…
07-29 10:31:09	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xac8633…
07-28 23:23:47	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x276459…