Robust-Clavicle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$646

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.3%

Resolved

762

Trades

1,069

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-28 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 151 days

Categories

Other

52% 62% -$112

Politics

39% 42% -$810

Sports

7% 61% +$332

Crypto

2% 73% -$38

Tech

1% 57% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by June 30?	6	$696	3,105	3,105	+0	No	-$104	05-20 15:01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$606	868	868	+0	Yes	-$75	06-12 15:34
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	2	$558	335	335	+0	Yes	+$76	05-11 09:23
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$468	2,175	2,175	+0	No	-$54	03-24 11:31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	7	$303	505	505	+0	No	+$46	06-18 16:49
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	4	$247	725	725	+0	No	-$15	05-27 13:41
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	3	$228	162	162	+0	Joao Fonseca	+$3	05-29 16:42
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13?	2	$201	142	142	+0	Yes	+$82	05-13 21:52
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?	1	$183	235	0	+235	Yes	+$52	05-14 11:29
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$166	2,189	2,189	+0	No	-$34	05-23 21:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$163	265	265	+0	No	-$77	04-22 08:33
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	2	$150	833	833	+0	No	-$50	05-07 15:41
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	2	$133	395	395	+0	No	+$3	05-08 11:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$131	9,322	0	+9,322	Yes	-$131	03-23 09:34
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	3	$120	1,747	1,747	+0	No	-$33	03-24 16:05
Manresa vs. Real Madrid	2	$116	97	97	+0	Manresa	-$30	05-29 16:31
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$114	197	0	+197	Yes	+$83	05-29 16:44
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	2	$111	182	182	+0	No	-$89	05-14 11:28
will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	3	$106	223	223	+0	No	+$3	08-08 00:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$104	150	150	+0	No	-$1	05-20 15:00
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$102	238	238	+0	No	+$2	05-13 22:14
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	2	$96	122	122	+0	No	-$4	05-14 11:28
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$1	06-02 15:32
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic	1	$90	102	0	+102	Novak Djokovic	+$12	05-27 13:48
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$88	846	846	+0	No	-$12	05-13 21:53
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	4	$84	127	0	+127	Yes	+$43	07-08 08:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	3	$82	400	400	+0	No	-$3	06-09 21:43
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$80	50	50	+0	Yes	+$14	06-09 21:43
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$78	117	117	+0	No	-$22	05-27 13:42
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	3	$68	38	38	+0	Yes	+$8	10-21 21:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:09:08	Will no Lemonade Stand episode air?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf5442c…
10-28 12:07:04	Will no statement by Warsh happen during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4f03f8…
10-27 20:52:21	Trail Blazers vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0x7b28e2…
10-27 20:48:26	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas not air?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x79982e…
10-27 20:48:03	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas not air?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb91635…
10-27 20:47:12	Will Robinhood say "Bitcoin" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0x401c84…
10-27 20:46:14	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0xd03656…
10-27 15:35:32	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	15	76¢	$12	0xb39f09…
10-27 15:29:18	Will Robinhood say "Bitcoin" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3d77ad…
10-27 15:27:17	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas not air?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1ed955…
10-27 15:18:32	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas not air?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfdb129…
10-26 17:24:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	27	69¢	$19	0x6714bf…
10-26 17:22:17	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	41	24¢	$10	0x0cb634…
10-26 17:11:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x604da7…
10-26 09:59:33	Will Verizon say "Satellite" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$13	0xcfca09…
10-26 09:17:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x8a661a…
10-25 12:11:33	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$5	0xf9f38a…
10-25 12:10:59	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xf883e4…
10-25 12:07:30	Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2f14f3…
10-25 12:05:14	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x61e44c…
10-25 11:40:41	Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x67087a…
10-24 21:36:44	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Georgia not air?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x3568b7…
10-24 21:33:17	Bucks vs. 76ers	76ers	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x02f390…
10-24 21:32:42	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-10-24?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x39a66d…
10-24 12:36:54	Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	8	68¢	$6	0xb970df…
10-24 12:25:20	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1489e8…
10-24 12:16:59	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb470d0…
10-24 12:16:06	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x38527f…
10-24 12:03:09	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x3754d5…
10-24 11:40:11	Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang	Shuai Zhang	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x52214c…
10-24 11:35:59	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider	Elena Rybakina	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2da155…
10-24 11:34:59	Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmann	Yannick Hanfmann	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x13eb47…
10-24 11:34:12	Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Nikoloz Basilashvili	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0x350cc1…
10-24 11:28:20	Bucks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xaafd32…
10-24 11:21:17	Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang	Shuai Zhang	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x2f48b1…
10-24 11:17:11	Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Nikoloz Basilashvili	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xb7277b…
10-24 11:13:27	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider	Elena Rybakina	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd8840c…
10-24 11:05:50	Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmann	Yannick Hanfmann	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xaddb85…
10-23 17:28:45	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Florida not air?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xcbc7de…
10-23 17:27:02	Cali: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Carlos Maria Zarate	Felipe Meligeni Alves	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x4e634b…
10-23 11:41:12	Ningbo Open: Iva Jovic vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x5854ff…
10-23 11:36:50	Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano	Filippo Romano	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x536dd5…
10-23 11:30:29	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa	Elena Rybakina	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xfeaf13…
10-23 11:27:38	Cali: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Carlos Maria Zarate	Felipe Meligeni Alves	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x0d14f2…
10-23 11:26:41	European Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xb02123…
10-23 11:25:15	Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul	Tommy Paul	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xffa7b6…
10-23 11:20:50	Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x9fd90d…
10-22 18:50:18	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Iowa not air?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xe6a385…
10-22 11:21:32	Will the earnings call not air?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x36bea3…
10-21 21:09:21	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in South Carolina not air?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xac3eab…
10-21 21:07:06	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xf5be99…
10-21 10:01:11	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0xd3925f…
10-21 10:00:32	Almaty Open: Zangar Nurlanuly vs Tomas Machac	Tomas Machac	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf7b658…
10-21 09:59:51	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xaa61b9…
10-21 09:55:23	Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller	Max Alcala Gurri	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0x0426bf…
10-21 09:42:29	Almaty Open: Zangar Nurlanuly vs Tomas Machac	Tomas Machac	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa02c6d…
10-21 09:27:26	Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller	Max Alcala Gurri	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x97d783…
10-21 09:24:48	Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller	Max Alcala Gurri	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9d0445…
10-20 21:23:15	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in North Carolina not air?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc38482…
10-20 21:19:32	Will AEK win on 2026-10-20?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x612a3b…
10-20 21:19:14	Will Netflix say "Membership" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x72fd71…
10-20 14:50:23	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in North Carolina not air?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6576d5…
10-20 14:47:42	Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-10-20?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x9ee723…
10-19 17:37:15	Will "Right" be said 5+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x6d7356…
10-19 17:27:09	Will Netflix say "Membership" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x587a73…
10-19 17:25:21	Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Andrade	Max Alcala Gurri	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x26855c…
10-19 17:13:15	Will "Right" be said 5+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xea5ece…
10-19 17:09:59	Will AEK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x46d75a…
10-19 17:08:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x893ae9…
10-19 17:07:14	Will Netflix say "Membership" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5545de…
10-19 17:04:09	Will the earnings call not air?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0ea5fb…
10-19 17:01:02	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x128777…
10-19 16:57:23	Florence: Francesco Forti vs Jonas Forejtek	Francesco Forti	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaad068…
10-19 16:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 17?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0e8905…
10-19 16:48:24	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Kansas not air?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2ee1c1…
10-19 16:45:30	Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x732a09…
10-19 16:44:06	Will AEK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc87ea9…
10-19 16:32:57	Florence: Francesco Forti vs Jonas Forejtek	Francesco Forti	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3ce6a6…
10-19 16:16:56	Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Andrade	Max Alcala Gurri	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xe5608b…
10-19 15:57:39	Lisbon: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller	Elmer Moeller	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xac9f01…
10-19 15:40:51	Lisbon: Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas	Marco Cecchinato	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcdbbab…
10-19 15:31:23	Florence: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Bondioli	Federico Bondioli	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x15660f…
10-19 14:50:41	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d7e73…
10-19 14:35:14	Florence: Miguel Damas vs Samuele Pieri	Samuele Pieri	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x599f43…
10-19 14:21:50	Florence: Franco Agamenone vs Max Houkes	Max Houkes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3149ef…
10-19 14:16:24	Lisbon: Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas	Thiago Monteiro	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc419f6…
10-19 14:06:08	European Open: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen	Alex Michelsen	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4d96bf…
10-19 09:59:54	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd4b1d4…
10-19 09:06:09	Ningbo Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6ce6d4…
10-19 08:52:14	Almaty Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Acosta	Facundo Acosta	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x632128…
10-19 08:14:00	Ningbo Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Han Shi	Sorana Cirstea	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7cabaa…
10-18 15:37:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2b98dd…
10-18 15:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8eae8c…
10-18 15:35:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x97d74d…
10-18 15:30:00	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x090c3b…
10-17 19:09:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x389a95…
10-17 19:08:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5d8e0a…
10-16 12:33:51	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Georgia not air?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x53398d…
10-16 12:30:33	wta annli swiatek 2026 10 16	Iga Swiatek	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x99414a…
10-16 12:27:37	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x639b1f…