Linear-Mound — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

79.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$437

1 position

First seen

2026-04-26

last 06-08 15:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

39% — —

Politics

34% — —

Crypto

26% 73% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+523	$450	84¢	$437	$-13	06-08 05:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$1.0K	518	518	+0	open	—	06-08 05:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$920	499	499	+0	open	—	05-16 09:09
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$548	597	0	+597	open	—	05-18 17:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$450	523	0	+523	open	—	06-08 05:54
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$167	199	0	+199	open	—	06-08 15:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$150	170	0	+170	open	—	06-03 19:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$142	73	73	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	4	$127	116	116	+0	Up	$-13	05-08 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$127	78	78	+0	Down	+$27	05-08 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$117	70	70	+0	Down	+$17	05-08 17:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$113	64	64	+0	Down	+$13	05-08 18:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$103	55	55	+0	Up	+$3	05-08 18:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$100	120	0	+120	open	—	05-08 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$94	59	59	+0	Down	+$14	05-08 18:37
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$91	52	52	+0	open	—	05-26 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$86	61	61	+0	Up	+$6	05-08 18:14
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$70	97	0	+97	open	—	05-08 16:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$70	79	0	+79	open	—	05-28 16:04
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$65	91	91	+0	open	—	05-28 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$65	42	42	+0	Up	+$5	05-08 18:22
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$60	73	0	+73	open	—	05-08 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$58	60	60	+0	Up	$-2	05-09 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$50	31	31	+0	Down	+$10	05-09 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	1	$50	78	0	+78	Down	$-50	05-08 19:27
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$44	48	0	+48	open	—	06-03 19:38
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$40	484	0	+484	open	—	05-08 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$30	58	0	+58	Up	+$28	05-08 19:59
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$30	58	0	+58	open	—	05-08 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$27	45	45	+0	Up	+$7	05-09 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	2	$22	26	26	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 10:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 15:37:09	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xfb768e…
06-08 05:54:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	523	86¢	$450	0xd1daae…
06-08 05:53:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	518	100¢	$518	0xcd9a6d…
06-03 19:38:03	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	48	91¢	$44	0xd3f9d6…
06-03 19:33:18	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xe105f8…
06-03 19:26:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	170	88¢	$150	0x8b6a7a…
06-03 19:24:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	518	96¢	$500	0x63d4d7…
05-28 16:04:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	89¢	$70	0xf54d81…
05-28 15:40:13	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	91	17¢	$15	0x12ed31…
05-26 19:08:31	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$51	0xde226c…
05-25 08:47:08	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x02d8aa…
05-18 17:23:33	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	514	95¢	$488	0xa70617…
05-16 09:09:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	379	100¢	$379	0xd87079…
05-10 09:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0xbfb449…
05-10 09:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x76d275…
05-10 09:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0x6c9a13…
05-10 09:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xbf6ecb…
05-09 22:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xc21a33…
05-09 22:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x18e58b…
05-09 22:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x44ef65…
05-09 22:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbe443d…
05-09 22:00:38	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	52	76¢	$40	0x12b9ac…
05-09 21:59:47	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	83	72¢	$60	0x8d8f82…
05-09 14:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xc6d867…
05-09 14:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x86898b…
05-09 14:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	44	63¢	$28	0x1ddf56…
05-09 14:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x574940…
05-09 11:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x68c0b1…
05-09 11:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x92e77c…
05-09 11:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb03606…
05-09 11:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	21	26¢	$5	0x0fc231…
05-09 11:52:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xbd5101…
05-09 11:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	SELL	19	59¢	$11	0xb753ca…
05-09 11:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xd92ce7…
05-09 11:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x15707e…
05-09 10:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	26	45¢	$12	0x070730…
05-09 10:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x935e5b…
05-09 10:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xf245b5…
05-09 09:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	91¢	$7	0xb91d52…
05-09 09:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x1ff196…
05-09 09:41:49	Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xb41949…
05-09 09:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x499b41…
05-09 09:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xfe7f29…
05-09 09:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0xf9269b…
05-09 09:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xd057eb…
05-08 20:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xb0e8ed…
05-08 19:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xfba53a…
05-08 19:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x5ad17e…
05-08 18:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	59	91¢	$54	0x330ad8…
05-08 18:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xfbd7b5…
05-08 18:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0xe42355…
05-08 18:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xe7daf8…
05-08 18:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	42	83¢	$35	0x1211e6…
05-08 18:21:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x5d3ea4…
05-08 18:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	27	79¢	$21	0x78d5df…
05-08 18:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x981ee3…
05-08 18:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	89	40¢	$36	0x8fdaea…
05-08 18:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x5e2c5e…
05-08 18:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	61	76¢	$46	0x0b0ff9…
05-08 18:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0x775a5e…
05-08 18:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0x4af866…
05-08 18:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x1d3108…
05-08 18:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0x1f4fc1…
05-08 18:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x86616b…
05-08 17:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0x36741c…
05-08 17:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xaa6c73…
05-08 17:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0x176694…
05-08 17:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x6e52d0…
05-08 17:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0xc89c17…
05-08 17:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x49cf1b…
05-08 17:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xac27b5…
05-08 17:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x828138…
05-08 17:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x94fc09…
05-08 17:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x02488f…
05-08 17:18:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc186e8…
05-08 17:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4859d5…
05-08 17:15:03	Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x6243a8…
05-08 17:06:14	Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x20714f…
05-08 16:23:57	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0xe8c614…
05-08 16:15:15	Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	82¢	$60	0xa1cd25…
05-08 16:13:56	Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	484	8¢	$40	0x5ab602…
05-08 16:12:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$117	0xab8c02…
05-08 15:59:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x055459…
04-26 22:54:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	499	85¢	$424	0xbefaf3…