Fluffy-Confidentiality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.07K

Unrealized P&L

+$144

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$60.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$256

Open exposure

$695

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-29 22:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Politics

52% 83% +$231

Other

41% 100% +$702

Crypto

4% 100% +$91

Tech

2% 100% +$25

Sports

1% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+906	$551	75¢	$676	+$125	09-24 18:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+10	$9	94¢	$9	+$0	10-27 20:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	+5	-$2	100¢	$5	+$7	10-27 22:17
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+5	-$7	93¢	$5	+$12	10-27 20:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	14	$11.6K	5,878	5,878	+0	open	—	10-29 22:34
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	21	$7.0K	3,597	3,597	+0	open	—	10-28 14:55
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	7	$3.6K	1,809	1,809	+0	No	+$44	07-04 11:37
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	3	$2.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$26	08-26 21:32
will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	11	$2.6K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$81	08-14 21:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$79	10-06 06:54
will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	1	$1.8K	1,829	0	+1,829	No	+$11	07-04 11:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	4	$1.3K	700	700	+0	open	—	10-25 15:17
will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	3	$1.3K	1,312	0	+1,312	No	+$38	07-15 23:35
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	3	$1.2K	630	630	+0	No	+$25	06-12 21:32
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$1.2K	723	723	+0	No	+$65	06-03 03:57
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	6	$1.2K	1,238	0	+1,238	No	+$62	10-25 15:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,299	0	+1,299	No	+$146	10-11 21:35
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	2	$1.1K	600	590	+10	open	—	10-27 20:16
Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	19	$1.0K	529	529	+0	open	—	10-27 22:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	2	$986	500	500	+0	No	+$12	09-26 09:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$944	990	0	+990	No	+$47	08-26 21:33
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	2	$859	450	450	+0	Yes	+$40	08-02 12:53
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	7	$857	435	435	+0	No	+$8	08-09 11:32
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	5	$828	450	445	+5	open	—	10-27 20:48
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	4	$826	420	420	+0	No	+$14	06-28 19:11
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	1	$752	760	0	+760	No	+$8	06-28 19:11
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	2	$686	347	347	+0	No	+$8	06-28 19:11
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	2	$596	320	320	+0	Yes	+$28	05-01 09:00
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	24	$551	906	0	+906	open	—	09-24 18:32
will wti dip to 50 in july 2026 844	1	$495	500	0	+500	No	+$5	07-05 16:26
will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	1	$489	500	0	+500	No	+$11	07-05 14:23
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	1	$462	479	0	+479	Yes	+$16	10-19 10:16
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6% or more?	2	$444	235	235	+0	No	+$26	05-20 21:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	1	$444	463	0	+463	Yes	+$19	10-17 08:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:34:10	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2,955	100¢	$2,940	0x5ecbf3…
10-29 17:43:41	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,801	98¢	$2,753	0x4b8333…
10-29 17:43:29	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	154	98¢	$152	0xf54575…
10-29 17:37:02	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2,923	99¢	$2,906	0xe836fa…
10-28 14:59:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,355	98¢	$1,327	0x480962…
10-28 14:59:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	181	98¢	$177	0x52a170…
10-28 14:58:59	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x26929d…
10-28 14:58:53	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	389	98¢	$380	0x5a28b4…
10-28 14:58:47	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	464	98¢	$453	0x44a7f6…
10-28 14:58:40	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xe9d262…
10-28 14:56:25	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xba1af0…
10-28 14:56:25	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x6d6df4…
10-28 14:56:25	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x50232c…
10-28 14:56:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	218	97¢	$212	0x87366e…
10-28 14:55:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	2,257	100¢	$2,250	0x1108cf…
10-28 14:43:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x97d95a…
10-28 14:35:07	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	470	100¢	$468	0x29e251…
10-28 14:31:32	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$104	0x8c1002…
10-28 14:29:35	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x35a835…
10-28 13:29:40	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	624	98¢	$613	0xcbf1a3…
10-28 13:28:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	117	98¢	$115	0xcfb228…
10-28 13:16:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	731	100¢	$729	0x3152c1…
10-27 22:44:18	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	114	86¢	$99	0x653a87…
10-27 22:43:38	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0xdedc85…
10-27 22:43:38	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	48	95¢	$46	0x3afd06…
10-27 22:42:21	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xfe199f…
10-27 22:38:30	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$29	0x54f00b…
10-27 22:37:50	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xc6cf87…
10-27 22:37:00	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x564606…
10-27 22:36:12	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb02b91…
10-27 22:33:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	71	90¢	$64	0x7224ae…
10-27 22:32:02	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x23d236…
10-27 22:31:12	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x39450d…
10-27 22:30:23	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x8b38e9…
10-27 22:26:18	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x933776…
10-27 22:25:29	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x058366…
10-27 22:24:39	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x59ffe1…
10-27 22:21:18	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x4f702d…
10-27 22:20:44	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xece806…
10-27 22:20:38	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x243730…
10-27 22:20:06	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xddd976…
10-27 22:19:30	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x60bc1a…
10-27 22:18:53	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe545f9…
10-27 22:17:35	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	169	90¢	$153	0xb346c7…
10-27 22:17:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	SELL	155	98¢	$152	0x33379f…
10-27 20:53:09	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x04095f…
10-27 20:52:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	390	96¢	$373	0xe63684…
10-27 20:52:36	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	93	100¢	$92	0xd86174…
10-27 20:52:06	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	294	97¢	$286	0x8d5ccd…
10-27 20:51:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	84	94¢	$79	0x46807b…
10-27 20:50:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x9b2ab2…
10-27 20:50:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	630	93¢	$589	0xd86b3d…
10-27 20:49:39	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xfd96e8…
10-27 20:49:14	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	140	92¢	$129	0x911f92…
10-27 20:48:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	445	94¢	$418	0x7cd4f4…
10-27 20:16:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	567	95¢	$537	0xfe9a86…
10-27 20:16:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	590	92¢	$543	0x07939a…
10-27 07:40:51	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	93	98¢	$91	0x1076e8…
10-27 07:40:14	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	42	91¢	$38	0x404f64…
10-27 07:40:12	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x23d5de…
10-27 07:40:11	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xcdc179…
10-27 07:40:11	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$8	0x209415…
10-26 18:15:30	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	281	95¢	$268	0x2b8888…
10-26 18:13:20	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	700	92¢	$644	0x37b064…
10-26 18:11:00	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	248	95¢	$236	0xa4c645…
10-26 18:07:57	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x893279…
10-25 15:19:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	339	96¢	$325	0x550d19…
10-25 15:19:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7a4d40…
10-25 15:18:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$153	0x76ea00…
10-25 15:18:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8cf01a…
10-25 15:18:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0x6712e1…
10-25 15:17:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$696	0xf9fca8…
10-24 08:40:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	510	94¢	$479	0xd60ee2…
10-19 10:16:14	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	479	97¢	$462	0xaf0dc4…
10-17 10:53:09	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	43	91¢	$39	0xb04585…
10-17 10:19:29	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x42ac66…
10-17 09:59:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x5ffd42…
10-17 09:14:51	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	57	91¢	$52	0x633b1b…
10-17 08:43:15	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	150	91¢	$137	0x082bbe…
10-17 08:34:18	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	140	82¢	$115	0xee5d0b…
10-17 08:33:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	BUY	143	94¢	$134	0x6fd63b…
10-17 08:31:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	463	96¢	$444	0x681126…
10-17 08:31:15	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xe9b8cc…
10-11 21:35:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	179	96¢	$172	0x32584a…
10-11 21:35:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x13d092…
10-07 00:23:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	520	87¢	$452	0xe577ea…
10-06 07:45:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x67c087…
10-06 06:54:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0x8e6a32…
10-06 06:53:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	600	88¢	$528	0x689ba5…
10-02 23:25:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x122fbd…
09-26 13:47:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xd3651f…
09-26 09:11:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0xff906e…
09-26 09:01:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x91ec4c…
09-26 08:21:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	170	94¢	$160	0x91c090…
09-24 18:32:29	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x7a26b2…
09-24 09:06:33	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x4ee8ef…
09-24 05:42:27	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	39¢	$69	0x27d42a…
09-19 21:52:38	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	39¢	$35	0x14aeb5…
09-16 21:54:25	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$121	0x83d69e…
09-16 18:22:25	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	71¢	$44	0xe12f2f…