Fluffy-Confidentiality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$60

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

76.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

$888

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-03 04:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

73% 100% +$34

Politics

15% 0% $-94

Tech

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+400	$390	99¢	$395	+$5	06-02 19:57
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	+300	$294	99¢	$298	+$4	06-02 19:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+200	$193	98¢	$195	+$2	05-31 11:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	2	$604	630	0	+630	open	—	06-03 04:44
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	2	$596	320	320	+0	open	—	05-01 09:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$436	448	0	+448	open	—	05-28 21:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$390	400	0	+400	open	—	06-02 19:57
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$312	347	0	+347	Yes	+$34	05-01 09:10
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	2	$312	375	0	+375	open	—	05-11 09:33
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	1	$294	300	0	+300	open	—	06-02 19:57
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$273	150	150	+0	open	—	05-11 09:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$229	236	0	+236	open	—	05-11 09:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$200	210	0	+210	open	—	05-16 12:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 12:02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	9	$193	200	0	+200	open	—	05-31 11:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	2	$178	182	0	+182	open	—	04-19 07:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$146	150	0	+150	open	—	05-07 19:09
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$140	265	265	+0	open	—	03-16 22:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	04-19 07:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$99	108	0	+108	open	—	05-07 21:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$94	100	0	+100	Yes	$-94	05-05 18:54
Kash Patel out by May 31?	1	$69	80	0	+80	open	—	05-05 19:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 04:44:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x818200…
06-03 03:59:11	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	No	BUY	430	96¢	$412	0xd4225f…
06-02 19:57:49	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x1b1f46…
06-02 19:57:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$390	0x4639a2…
05-31 11:24:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$22	0xea1dd9…
05-31 11:24:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0xd5abce…
05-31 11:24:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x526ea7…
05-31 11:23:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xca10cd…
05-31 11:23:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0x8726de…
05-31 11:20:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xa74b7c…
05-31 11:03:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x52b5b2…
05-31 10:21:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc63d2c…
05-31 10:18:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x4ccb2e…
05-28 21:36:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x87ad55…
05-20 21:40:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	246	96¢	$236	0x6e59a9…
05-16 12:20:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xc902fe…
05-16 12:18:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x04a151…
05-16 12:02:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe36567…
05-11 09:33:04	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	No	BUY	275	80¢	$220	0xde9ec1…
05-11 09:31:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	120	97¢	$116	0x698a21…
05-11 09:30:53	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	150	92¢	$138	0xe04adc…
05-07 21:20:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xee9264…
05-07 21:19:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xfdb16f…
05-07 21:18:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	116	97¢	$113	0x0bae93…
05-07 19:28:09	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x79e612…
05-07 19:09:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xaccbb6…
05-07 19:05:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x60ac44…
05-07 19:05:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x52cad5…
05-05 19:01:58	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	BUY	80	86¢	$69	0x1b325a…
05-05 18:58:00	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x290088…
05-05 18:55:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x68ea9d…
05-05 18:54:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x952d7f…
05-05 18:51:46	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x3eae8a…
05-01 09:10:50	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	156	91¢	$142	0x28511f…
05-01 09:01:20	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	191	89¢	$170	0x3e7622…
05-01 09:00:32	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	Yes	SELL	320	98¢	$312	0x00fd31…
05-01 08:39:40	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	Yes	BUY	320	89¢	$284	0x3b0fcd…
04-19 07:46:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	79	98¢	$78	0x7db1e1…
04-19 07:45:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0x373c6a…
04-19 07:43:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd45c7d…
03-16 22:29:01	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x9fa384…
03-16 22:25:53	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0xcfc7aa…
03-16 22:24:49	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	65	94¢	$61	0xfca444…
03-16 22:24:41	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xb16bfe…