Warped-Melody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

Trades

145

lifetime

Volume

$1.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-04-05

last 06-15 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

89% 45% $-98

Crypto

8% — —

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-25	$-23	99¢	$-25	$-2	06-08 05:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	11	$237	309	307	+2	Down	+$15	05-04 10:02
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	8	$183	203	192	+11	Up	$-55	05-11 18:00
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	6	$93	212	207	+5	Down	$-10	05-08 15:18
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	3	$90	104	103	+1	Up	+$4	05-04 01:44
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	4	$74	101	51	+50	Down	+$47	05-07 16:14
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	3	$68	59	59	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 09:40
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?	2	$58	101	101	+0	open	—	05-15 15:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	2	$53	101	101	+0	No	$-46	05-07 11:22
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	7	$52	136	136	+0	open	—	05-15 15:56
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	4	$49	151	0	+151	No	$-49	05-07 12:50
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in April?	4	$38	50	49	+1	open	—	04-11 08:13
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$34	19	18	+1	open	—	05-30 13:12
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	8	$30	140	25	+115	open	—	05-15 08:17
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	3	$24	172	172	+0	open	—	05-15 06:11
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	2	$23	21	21	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 11:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$23	0	25	-25	open	—	06-08 05:46
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?	3	$23	22	20	+2	open	—	04-20 20:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	3	$20	33	0	+33	open	—	04-06 06:27
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in April?	2	$19	50	0	+50	open	—	04-06 05:44
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	2	$16	66	66	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 08:28
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11?	2	$15	66	66	+0	Yes	$-3	05-11 15:00
ethereum up or down on june 8 2026	1	$14	40	0	+40	open	—	06-08 05:49
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?	2	$12	10	9	+1	open	—	04-26 00:27
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	3	$10	40	39	+1	open	—	04-27 01:00
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?	3	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	04-19 23:53
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	2	$6	55	55	+0	open	—	05-15 15:56
Will BNB reach $700 in April?	4	$4	30	1	+29	open	—	04-26 19:13
will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	6	$4	100	0	+100	open	—	04-17 17:08
Will Solana reach $90 in April?	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	04-16 08:55
ethereum above 2300 on april 19	2	$4	40	7	+33	open	—	04-19 08:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 07:02:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x90ba1b…
06-15 07:00:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x747559…
06-15 07:00:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x5affd6…
06-08 05:49:42	ethereum up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0x4020b5…
06-08 05:46:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	25	90¢	$23	0x81497d…
05-30 13:12:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x8d325d…
05-24 10:38:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0xf2be69…
05-15 15:56:37	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x0037a3…
05-15 15:56:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	55	2¢	$1	0x59d41a…
05-15 15:54:47	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	101	2¢	$2	0x4a364b…
05-15 08:17:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x2a73b4…
05-15 08:17:13	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0x7ade94…
05-15 08:00:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	19¢	$10	0x53d4e1…
05-15 07:45:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0xe35262…
05-15 07:42:02	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xa1fbca…
05-15 07:41:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc9b0d1…
05-15 07:41:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xe72c4a…
05-15 07:41:43	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xbf80ca…
05-15 07:05:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x835ec4…
05-15 06:56:13	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x7eea15…
05-15 06:56:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x8807be…
05-15 06:35:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x89bbdd…
05-15 06:35:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x86c545…
05-15 06:11:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	Yes	SELL	172	7¢	$12	0x1d7457…
05-15 06:11:11	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	101	20¢	$20	0x5dec73…
05-15 05:34:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	101	24¢	$24	0x35e47e…
05-15 04:55:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	101	55¢	$56	0xc320ee…
05-11 18:00:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	90	3¢	$3	0x7ad05f…
05-11 17:54:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0x0c0d86…
05-11 16:13:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x4a2e9a…
05-11 15:00:24	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11?	No	SELL	66	9¢	$6	0xaf172b…
05-11 14:55:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11?	No	BUY	66	14¢	$9	0x8ee4d6…
05-11 13:12:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0xf89baf…
05-11 13:12:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x7880fa…
05-11 13:11:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0x3911ba…
05-11 13:10:06	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x74a729…
05-11 12:10:53	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	64	60¢	$39	0x407e1f…
05-11 12:10:51	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	38	60¢	$23	0xb54867…
05-11 11:50:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	21	56¢	$12	0x72df7b…
05-11 11:30:47	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	102	53¢	$54	0xbbff62…
05-11 11:01:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x161c50…
05-11 09:40:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	52	58¢	$30	0x2d03f2…
05-11 09:34:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	6	58¢	$4	0xd4fef7…
05-11 09:31:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	59	57¢	$34	0x5595a7…
05-08 15:18:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	107	20¢	$21	0x1b20e2…
05-08 10:43:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x9cbfbe…
05-08 10:41:03	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xe82e33…
05-08 10:41:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xb2bd70…
05-08 09:23:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x719fa0…
05-08 08:28:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	SELL	66	12¢	$8	0x4e1db5…
05-08 08:15:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	66	13¢	$9	0x40112f…
05-08 05:37:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	110	31¢	$34	0xb3f053…
05-07 16:14:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x3fc29c…
05-07 16:13:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x9a3cdc…
05-07 12:50:28	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$1	0xd0a629…
05-07 12:10:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0x473ee7…
05-07 12:08:21	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xb5e0e4…
05-07 12:01:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x0be9c1…
05-07 11:22:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	3¢	$3	0xfd9682…
05-05 06:03:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	48¢	$24	0x320686…
05-05 05:43:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	49¢	$49	0xd04581…
05-05 04:32:16	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x97099c…
05-04 10:02:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	44	42¢	$18	0xc066b1…
05-04 10:02:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x839f69…
05-04 10:02:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0xf72d58…
05-04 10:02:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	34	42¢	$14	0x71dabb…
05-04 09:03:02	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0xd84cbd…
05-04 08:39:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x9f864a…
05-04 08:04:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	104	39¢	$41	0xb5275c…
05-04 07:22:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	104	33¢	$34	0x3cc8d6…
05-04 02:30:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	102	41¢	$42	0x7d10a4…
05-04 02:00:26	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0x21de31…
05-04 01:56:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xbf251d…
05-04 01:56:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x766f53…
05-04 01:44:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	32	45¢	$14	0xfd5259…
05-04 01:12:34	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	71	45¢	$32	0x34cd9b…
05-04 00:57:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	91	38¢	$35	0xc3fb3e…
05-04 00:56:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xc1cee0…
05-04 00:55:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	104	42¢	$44	0x8827c3…
04-27 01:00:36	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xaafcb4…
04-27 01:00:10	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	Yes	SELL	33	14¢	$5	0x772f45…
04-26 19:13:52	Will BNB reach $700 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xa3cd0e…
04-26 00:27:10	Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?	No	SELL	9	83¢	$7	0xe7c0bb…
04-24 05:40:06	Will BNB reach $700 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xd4c785…
04-24 01:42:36	Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x79a0f0…
04-24 00:42:26	Will BNB reach $700 in April?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xedb56a…
04-24 00:38:32	Will BNB reach $700 in April?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x0fda14…
04-23 17:40:24	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x2c9ba7…
04-23 15:17:32	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x05e3df…
04-20 20:32:18	Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x560d8a…
04-19 23:53:58	Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x5ae52b…
04-19 08:31:26	ethereum above 2300 on april 19	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x9b9f01…
04-18 13:19:40	Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x46e43c…
04-18 07:59:44	xrp up or down on april 18 2026	Up	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xb90733…
04-18 07:56:46	solana up or down on april 18 2026	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb8efb5…
04-18 07:41:50	ethereum up or down on april 18 2026	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x64cb32…
04-18 01:17:04	Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x5466f7…
04-17 22:40:54	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xa39273…
04-17 20:31:12	will ethereum reach 2700 april 13 19	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x462307…
04-17 20:08:00	ethereum above 2300 on april 19	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xdf265c…