Separate-Checking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

101

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$1.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-29 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

62% 97% +$4

Politics

20% 100% +$2

Crypto

13% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+38	$30	74¢	$28	-$2	10-11 13:21
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+19	$18	94¢	$18	$0	10-29 21:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$129	87	43	+44	No	+$1	09-07 16:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	7	$107	56	56	+0	No	+$1	08-31 12:16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$89	48	48	+0	open	—	10-01 00:19
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$76	45	45	+0	No	+$0	10-07 04:11
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-23 05:25
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$0	10-01 03:07
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	09-14 15:36
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	1	$43	44	0	+44	Yes	+$1	09-10 00:44
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$43	44	0	+44	No	+$0	09-01 03:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	08-08 02:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	08-22 01:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$1	08-14 03:44
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-13 00:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-11 16:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	08-31 11:12
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	05-30 08:54
will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-26 22:35
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	10-11 13:21
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-04 22:52
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-13 09:13
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	06-29 23:22
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$18	19	0	+19	open	—	10-29 21:51
will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	07-31 15:56
will coin reach 195 in june 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-28 21:31
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$15	8	8	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	10-26 13:34
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$12	12	0	+12	Yes	+$0	10-26 00:02
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-31 22:04
will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	01-23 11:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 21:51:12	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x749f5f…
10-26 13:34:53	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe76200…
10-26 00:02:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x0b5fd5…
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x708ba8…
10-24 01:36:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x2708fb…
10-11 13:21:00	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xd04c86…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xaa96a9…
10-07 09:29:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x447b76…
10-07 04:11:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	85¢	$38	0x13e510…
10-06 05:12:58	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe5b178…
10-05 01:35:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	84¢	$38	0x608512…
10-01 03:07:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$44	0xfba6ce…
10-01 00:19:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	48	92¢	$45	0x34a883…
09-25 09:34:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	48	92¢	$45	0x75f18d…
09-23 05:25:23	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xf7fc9a…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x801055…
09-14 15:36:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xf1a5ea…
09-10 00:44:18	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x8fe168…
09-07 16:53:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xbef49b…
09-07 12:20:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x180640…
09-04 14:14:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	43	98¢	$43	0x579e47…
09-01 03:31:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xed4eac…
08-31 13:54:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x6bcd48…
08-31 12:16:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa18c80…
08-31 11:12:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7632aa…
08-27 21:28:25	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb1af1a…
08-27 14:45:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x4464a9…
08-27 03:28:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x73064c…
08-25 18:45:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xbc4e70…
08-25 18:26:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa6c51a…
08-25 18:26:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0x42fb35…
08-25 18:24:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xcde87f…
08-25 09:46:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x5bd83b…
08-24 14:55:27	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x23100c…
08-23 12:18:51	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x18ea9a…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x347b92…
08-16 12:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xdf2642…
08-16 12:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x442651…
08-16 12:21:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x665f5f…
08-16 12:21:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x5e1f94…
08-16 12:21:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x2bc133…
08-16 12:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x741224…
08-16 12:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x686cfe…
08-16 12:09:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x74af6e…
08-16 12:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x819902…
08-16 11:49:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x86d3a6…
08-16 11:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xe23712…
08-16 11:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x726f09…
08-16 11:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x67419c…
08-14 03:44:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x01d7da…
08-13 00:55:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x51c662…
08-11 16:55:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x686fd1…
08-11 07:33:04	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x880d23…
08-08 02:08:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x84f36b…
08-05 20:13:05	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x940b7c…
08-04 22:52:26	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0xdf198a…
07-31 22:04:03	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97c692…
07-31 15:56:02	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xac1814…
07-30 21:05:35	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xcda992…
07-30 18:23:05	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x31a10c…
07-29 20:00:33	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3e045b…
07-29 00:45:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1ef790…
07-28 06:59:57	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e7ff5…
07-27 07:00:01	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf46ba8…
07-26 21:47:43	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2f15a3…
07-25 23:23:45	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d8b36…
07-25 23:00:55	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x47c322…
07-23 22:00:15	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5facd0…
07-20 12:19:58	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf8e93a…
07-11 00:54:20	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0240c3…
06-29 23:22:22	Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa9ab64…
06-28 21:31:07	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x587f7c…
06-27 09:44:05	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xef2cec…
06-27 08:46:55	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa27947…
06-26 22:35:49	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xc777f1…
06-26 20:49:32	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x90dd49…
05-30 08:54:33	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xda4243…
05-13 09:13:28	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd57b35…
05-09 15:41:09	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf0eae1…
05-09 04:47:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7426ea…
05-07 11:30:47	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6d7c3e…
05-05 23:29:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfb65cf…
05-05 21:53:34	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfdb6af…
05-05 18:16:04	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc50148…
04-28 23:21:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf9d74a…
04-27 23:28:40	Will Solana reach $130 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x610b38…
04-26 09:42:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5db243…
04-24 21:20:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x026070…
04-24 09:44:42	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9b0026…
04-22 23:48:26	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf08e21…
04-19 05:08:00	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1aed49…
04-19 00:54:04	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10fc52…
04-18 03:14:02	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x247f2a…
04-17 18:04:58	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2ffe5d…
04-17 01:14:12	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x78459b…
04-16 18:55:28	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb6e6d2…
04-15 14:07:54	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3eb587…
04-14 22:09:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x252eea…
04-05 15:03:29	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa53d58…
03-31 10:33:01	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xadb0dc…