Hollow-Estimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.11K

Unrealized P&L

+$282

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved

339

Trades

1,901

lifetime

Volume

$136.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$4.18K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 23:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Politics

57% 47% +$1,577

Sports

25% 50% -$5,668

Other

17% 49% +$1,117

Crypto

1% 50% -$138

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+2,802	$2,159	70¢	$1.9K	-$212	11-02 21:18
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes		+1,500	$1,200	88¢	$1.3K	+$127	10-29 17:31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		-3,776	-$326	8¢	$-304	+$22	10-30 17:45
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+400	$226	55¢	$220	-$6	11-05 00:07
Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5)	Central Michigan		+109	$60	72¢	$79	+$19	11-04 23:43
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes		-1,004	-$415	7¢	$-70	+$345	05-11 18:58
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5	Under		+143	$70	48¢	$69	-$1	11-04 23:48
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)	Grizzlies		+143	$70	46¢	$66	-$4	11-04 23:47
Senators vs. Sabres	Senators		+130	$60	48¢	$62	+$2	11-04 23:46
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)	Jazz	—	+40	$20	50¢	$20	$0	11-05 00:42
76ers vs. Pistons	Pistons		+40	$17	18¢	$7	-$10	11-05 00:39
Jazz vs. Pelicans	Jazz	—	+20	$7	36¢	$7	$0	11-05 00:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	73	$11.0K	10,511	7,709	+2,802	open	—	11-02 21:18
nba min mem 2026 02 02	2	$5.8K	11,365	0	+11,365	Grizzlies	-$5,780	02-03 02:26
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	87	$5.4K	4,276	4,605	-329	No	+$744	01-30 08:39
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	42	$5.0K	4,651	4,673	-22	Yes	+$2,010	04-07 23:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	54	$4.0K	6,905	6,905	+0	No	-$311	05-28 16:23
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	7	$3.8K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	-$14	01-06 23:46
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	21	$3.7K	2,000	2,200	-200	No	+$134	01-14 18:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	78	$3.6K	7,057	7,057	+0	No	+$574	04-21 14:27
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	12	$2.8K	1,550	1,550	+0	No	+$236	01-15 03:39
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	35	$2.7K	2,200	2,013	+187	Yes	-$262	01-16 11:05
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	17	$2.7K	1,696	1,696	+0	No	+$320	03-14 18:21
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	27	$2.3K	2,702	3,329	-627	No	-$215	03-14 17:54
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	16	$2.3K	1,343	1,363	-20	No	+$120	01-15 14:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$2.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-12 16:19
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	21	$1.8K	1,773	1,773	+0	No	-$323	10-27 20:23
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	20	$1.8K	1,615	1,615	+0	No	-$178	01-14 21:01
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	6	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$152	10-26 23:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	64	$1.6K	4,072	4,072	+0	No	-$296	05-09 22:56
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	10	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$352	11-04 01:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$69	04-17 13:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	17	$1.5K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	+$249	04-17 20:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	8	$1.4K	900	900	+0	No	-$37	01-13 17:06
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	15	$1.4K	950	712	+238	Yes	-$199	01-30 05:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	30	$1.3K	2,540	2,540	+0	No	-$108	04-24 13:10
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	14	$1.3K	800	800	+0	No	+$19	02-10 20:55
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	15	$1.3K	1,000	1,500	-500	No	+$323	01-30 07:05
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	10	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	10-29 17:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	18	$1.2K	1,680	1,680	-0	Yes	+$54	05-08 18:58
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	39	$1.2K	2,198	2,398	-200	No	+$46	04-21 20:49
will uk strike iran by march 31	13	$1.2K	700	700	+0	No	+$74	03-10 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 00:42:13	Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)	Jazz	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x2293ef…
11-05 00:40:07	Jazz vs. Pelicans	Jazz	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x2dc335…
11-05 00:39:22	76ers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x37dda9…
11-05 00:07:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x1c71f9…
11-04 23:48:09	Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	143	49¢	$70	0x9ad0e6…
11-04 23:47:13	Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	143	49¢	$70	0xfa885f…
11-04 23:46:10	Senators vs. Sabres	Senators	BUY	130	46¢	$60	0x0ff15d…
11-04 23:43:07	Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5)	Central Michigan	BUY	109	55¢	$60	0xe7ca64…
11-04 15:51:10	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x7b690c…
11-04 15:51:04	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	6¢	$7	0x5cea75…
11-04 14:37:46	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0xa29603…
11-04 14:36:58	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x94fcd2…
11-04 05:02:46	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	365	100¢	$365	0xb50b90…
11-04 03:15:55	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	365	96¢	$352	0x416525…
11-04 01:59:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	162	55¢	$89	0x8b3535…
11-04 01:25:55	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0x6c7fee…
11-04 01:25:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	44	68¢	$30	0xa360b3…
11-04 01:24:09	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	59	66¢	$39	0xec4c1b…
11-04 01:17:49	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	250	97¢	$242	0x5af7ec…
11-04 01:13:43	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdd7d5c…
11-04 01:13:43	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xb91801…
11-04 01:13:43	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	220	96¢	$211	0x1b0a2f…
11-04 01:12:57	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x461fcd…
11-04 01:11:57	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xd8fc18…
11-04 01:11:45	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	99	77¢	$76	0x458c35…
11-04 01:10:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0xa59a09…
11-04 01:04:04	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	160	36¢	$58	0x7ee99f…
11-04 00:19:46	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	160	34¢	$54	0x68c804…
11-04 00:19:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	70	33¢	$23	0xef0e04…
11-04 00:18:58	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xe9c012…
11-03 22:50:31	Blues vs. Rangers	Blues	BUY	128	47¢	$60	0x5393a0…
11-03 22:49:54	Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets	Avalanche	BUY	264	53¢	$140	0xd53ef3…
11-03 14:01:09	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	70	36¢	$25	0x8c4927…
11-03 03:55:34	Avalanche vs. Blackhawks	Avalanche	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x611f85…
11-03 03:35:16	Raptors vs. Clippers	Clippers	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0x23d3b1…
11-03 03:34:28	Raptors vs. Clippers	Clippers	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xef87be…
11-03 03:08:34	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	492	6¢	$30	0x5ea773…
11-03 03:08:21	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	866	6¢	$50	0x8efac9…
11-03 02:59:07	Avalanche vs. Blackhawks	Avalanche	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0xe5e08c…
11-03 01:22:48	Avalanche vs. Blackhawks	Avalanche	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0xd7fec3…
11-03 00:56:18	Raptors vs. Clippers	Clippers	BUY	120	38¢	$46	0xd40840…
11-03 00:30:12	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	156	6¢	$10	0xb41663…
11-02 21:18:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xd266e8…
11-02 21:14:21	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)	Clippers	BUY	140	55¢	$77	0x680cfd…
11-02 21:13:54	Spread: Rockets (-4.5)	Celtics	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xfc1f1b…
11-02 21:13:25	Spread: Lakers (-1.5)	Heat	BUY	120	48¢	$58	0x48f34b…
11-02 21:10:27	Golden Knights vs. Bruins	Golden Knights	BUY	120	52¢	$62	0x3b74bf…
11-02 21:10:12	Avalanche vs. Blackhawks	Avalanche	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xbb2f61…
11-02 21:08:55	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	200	57¢	$113	0x9c20b0…
11-02 21:08:18	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0xc6c598…
11-02 20:57:33	Thunder vs. Cavaliers	Thunder	BUY	80	40¢	$32	0x082c91…
11-02 20:07:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	127	68¢	$86	0x4a3be9…
11-02 18:50:07	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x4d40cc…
11-02 16:54:30	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	20¢	$20	0x5fdff7…
11-02 16:53:57	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	20¢	$20	0x2f32ca…
11-02 12:48:46	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xd2f997…
11-02 01:58:33	Eagles vs. Commanders	Commanders	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x6896db…
11-01 23:02:30	Utah vs. Flyers	Flyers	SELL	66	93¢	$61	0xecdb7a…
11-01 23:01:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	25¢	$49	0xc665ef…
11-01 22:57:34	Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5	Under	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x1e9cd0…
11-01 22:53:51	Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5	Under	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0xd31f46…
11-01 22:51:46	Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5	Under	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0xd61238…
11-01 22:07:04	Patriots vs. Dolphins	Patriots	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x887a45…
11-01 22:07:04	Patriots vs. Dolphins	Patriots	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x4ca30e…
11-01 21:42:16	Cardinals vs. Cowboys	Cardinals	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x109582…
11-01 21:35:49	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x1e2752…
11-01 21:16:39	Chargers vs. Rams	Chargers	BUY	120	27¢	$32	0x6b3cde…
11-01 21:16:18	Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	Magic	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0x182052…
11-01 21:16:16	Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	Magic	BUY	39	57¢	$22	0xa24969…
11-01 21:13:45	Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)	Cardinals	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x8c1591…
11-01 21:12:55	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	SELL	253	100¢	$252	0xaff536…
11-01 21:12:40	Raiders vs. Jets	Raiders	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x7baa35…
11-01 21:08:28	Senators vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x341690…
11-01 20:59:09	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	120	51¢	$61	0x7f22d6…
11-01 20:53:07	Raiders vs. Jets	Raiders	SELL	106	90¢	$96	0x6c0783…
11-01 19:44:18	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x73a814…
11-01 19:43:33	Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5	Over	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xa26333…
11-01 19:43:19	Ravens vs. Bills	Bills	SELL	127	92¢	$117	0x3c1326…
11-01 19:42:39	Ravens vs. Bills	Bills	SELL	127	89¢	$114	0x9feca2…
11-01 19:37:57	Utah vs. Flyers	Flyers	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xfa5649…
11-01 18:06:55	Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)	Cardinals	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x689843…
11-01 18:06:40	Cardinals vs. Cowboys	Cardinals	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0xa803f4…
11-01 18:02:49	Raiders vs. Jets	Raiders	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x93f49d…
11-01 18:00:24	Ravens vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	254	63¢	$160	0x11f0eb…
11-01 17:55:45	Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Browns	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x5d415b…
11-01 17:54:45	Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Steelers	SELL	353	50¢	$176	0x3fcf36…
11-01 17:26:40	Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Steelers	BUY	353	51¢	$180	0x84fc2f…
11-01 17:11:36	Browns vs. Steelers	Browns	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0x951c84…
11-01 16:45:07	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xe0c1a2…
11-01 16:18:12	Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5	Over	BUY	122	51¢	$62	0x0fe9ed…
11-01 16:16:46	Utah vs. Flyers	Flyers	BUY	105	38¢	$40	0xfc380c…
11-01 16:12:58	Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5	Under	BUY	110	52¢	$57	0x6a4873…
11-01 15:51:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x6b723b…
11-01 15:07:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x3c6a3e…
11-01 15:06:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x91c062…
11-01 15:00:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	95	64¢	$61	0x42ec96…
11-01 14:24:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	615	65¢	$400	0xcd5cb3…
10-31 22:11:15	Colorado State vs. Utah State	Utah State	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xd1826d…
10-31 19:24:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	560	56¢	$314	0xb61840…
10-31 19:07:37	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	420	55¢	$231	0x8ea0b2…