Capital-Agenda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$123

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 09-07 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

82% 88% -$3

Crypto

17% 100% +$2

Tech

1% 50% -$2

Sports

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	2	$2.1K	2,058	0	+2,058	No	+$2	07-26 10:11
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,463	0	+1,463	No	+$1	07-29 04:23
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	1	$976	977	0	+977	No	+$1	08-03 14:39
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	1	$597	600	0	+600	No	+$3	07-29 01:44
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	08-19 12:36
will ethereum reach 2000 on july 29	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	07-30 01:36
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	08-06 12:28
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	07-31 02:06
bitcoin above 68k on august 6 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	08-06 12:27
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 11?	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	07-11 12:47
bitcoin above 68k on july 23 2026	2	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	07-23 13:01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	08-28 08:13
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$132	134	0	+134	No	+$2	06-10 08:13
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	3	$129	119	11	+109	No	+$1	03-25 12:22
will solana reach 90 on july 18	1	$126	126	0	+126	No	+$0	07-18 07:06
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$106	106	0	+106	No	+$1	04-06 13:44
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	07-31 02:05
will bitcoin reach 72k on july 18	2	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	07-18 22:27
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 140 159	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	01-11 13:35
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$80	107	0	+107	Argentina	+$27	07-11 12:49
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	02-11 12:31
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	05-14 13:24
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	08-21 12:30
will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 29	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	07-30 01:35
will ethereum reach 2050 on july 29	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	07-30 02:12
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 40 59	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	02-11 12:40
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$40	62	0	+62	England	+$22	07-11 12:50
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	2	$40	51	0	+51	France	+$11	07-09 14:17
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 240plus	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	04-06 13:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	3	$37	24	24	+0	Yes	-$3	07-31 02:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 13:29:19	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x47e291…
08-28 08:13:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x471b49…
08-21 12:30:49	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xab9971…
08-19 12:36:57	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x93c59e…
08-19 12:36:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 19?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1c2e43…
08-06 12:28:09	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x4594b6…
08-06 12:27:30	bitcoin above 68k on august 6 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x16aef5…
08-03 14:39:39	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	BUY	977	100¢	$976	0xd5d308…
07-31 02:06:11	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x1099b4…
07-31 02:05:59	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd6443d…
07-31 02:05:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	24	72¢	$17	0x6d03d3…
07-30 02:12:50	will ethereum reach 2050 on july 29	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xfcbf6f…
07-30 01:36:21	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 29	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xd811c7…
07-30 01:35:48	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 29	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x728904…
07-29 04:23:06	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1,463	100¢	$1,462	0xf90b41…
07-29 01:44:35	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	600	100¢	$597	0xc35ecc…
07-26 10:11:16	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,762	100¢	$1,760	0x2f3195…
07-26 08:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	296	100¢	$296	0x48d181…
07-26 08:57:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf8ea26…
07-24 01:37:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x44e27a…
07-24 01:37:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc1c2d5…
07-23 15:56:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xa64144…
07-23 13:01:48	bitcoin above 68k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x742436…
07-23 13:01:31	bitcoin above 68k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8c0c84…
07-18 22:27:24	will bitcoin reach 72k on july 18	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x29806f…
07-18 07:08:13	will bitcoin dip to 57k on july 18	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x828bd9…
07-18 07:07:25	will bitcoin reach 72k on july 18	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x95ab3b…
07-18 07:06:06	will solana reach 90 on july 18	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x800276…
07-18 07:05:42	will solana dip to 55 on july 18	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1d6f5c…
07-15 12:56:35	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x6687d6…
07-14 14:09:41	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x6373dd…
07-11 12:50:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xc99d0d…
07-11 12:50:11	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x489c1c…
07-11 12:50:01	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xd1c26f…
07-11 12:49:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	107	75¢	$80	0x0a5a9a…
07-11 12:49:40	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x37cae9…
07-11 12:47:58	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 11?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x9aa580…
07-09 14:17:41	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x661aa8…
07-09 14:17:34	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf4df60…
07-08 13:31:50	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x098eee…
07-08 13:31:43	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xf68f6e…
07-08 13:31:25	will ethereum dip to 1450 on july 8	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2b469a…
07-08 13:30:52	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 8	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x14bd99…
07-08 13:30:16	will ethereum reach 2050 on july 8	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x72ef47…
06-10 08:13:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0xd10e2d…
06-08 13:33:52	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xbf5000…
06-08 13:29:30	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x15c87e…
05-14 13:24:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x0d849f…
05-14 13:24:21	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x0909d0…
05-14 13:24:10	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x81365d…
05-14 13:23:58	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x3633c9…
04-06 13:44:41	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x5eac39…
04-06 13:44:25	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2d983d…
04-06 13:44:15	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 240plus	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x54903f…
03-25 12:22:57	nba sas mem 2026 03 25	Spurs	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x40215f…
03-25 12:22:49	nba lal ind 2026 03 25	Lakers	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x69a40d…
03-25 12:22:35	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xac30e6…
03-10 06:27:33	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x24d121…
03-10 06:27:19	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc781a5…
03-10 06:26:59	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa53c5c…
02-23 08:16:56	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x04d12b…
02-23 08:16:48	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x284fb4…
02-23 08:16:36	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 580plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1037bd…
02-23 08:16:26	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 300 319	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdfd7d1…
02-11 12:41:13	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x08467d…
02-11 12:40:53	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 580plus	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x28b74c…
02-11 12:40:29	elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 40 59	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x37a9cc…
02-11 12:31:09	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x48f518…
02-11 12:30:53	nba mem den 2026 02 11	Nuggets	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4cdd74…
02-11 12:30:23	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb45313…
01-11 13:36:10	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xda8c22…
01-11 13:35:16	elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 140 159	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe5136b…
01-11 13:35:10	elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 160 179	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x04408a…
01-11 13:34:54	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5ff8c3…