Frightening-Trailpatrol — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

266

Trades

469

lifetime

Volume

$44.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$95

Open exposure

$104

1 position

First seen

2026-02-08

last 10-27 20:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

68% 53% -$6,655

Politics

23% 49% -$4,421

Sports

9% 47% -$287

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$61

Crypto

0% 67% +$34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No		+207	$120	50¢	$104	-$16	10-27 20:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	14	$8.0K	21,513	0	+21,513	Mbappé	-$7,985	10-26 18:39
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	10	$5.0K	3,061	3,061	+0	No	+$905	10-26 18:04
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	14	$4.8K	6,542	3,018	+3,524	Yes	+$239	10-26 22:27
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	6	$1.7K	7,058	7,058	+0	No	-$1,583	06-22 17:45
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$1.6K	1,051	1,051	+0	Yes	+$378	10-26 18:07
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$1.5K	1,976	1,976	+0	Yes	-$1,516	05-31 22:55
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?	2	$1.3K	710	710	+0	No	+$97	06-22 17:45
Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher?	5	$1.2K	1,736	0	+1,736	Kvaratskhelia	+$532	10-26 18:23
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$727	4,179	0	+4,179	No	-$727	10-26 21:11
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$657	3,987	3,987	+0	Yes	-$601	06-22 17:44
Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?	2	$654	353	353	+0	Yes	+$50	10-26 22:29
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$632	339	339	+0	Yes	+$32	05-31 23:42
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$536	821	0	+821	No	+$285	10-26 17:17
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$483	674	0	+674	Yes	+$191	10-26 21:13
Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?	2	$412	255	255	+0	Yes	+$86	08-23 18:54
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$411	1,579	1,579	+0	No	-$354	07-14 20:46
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$349	249	249	+0	Yes	+$149	07-15 21:29
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$340	505	0	+505	No	-$340	07-14 23:33
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$326	203	203	+0	No	+$33	10-25 03:51
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	6	$304	454	454	+0	No	-$296	09-01 16:39
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$299	482	482	+0	No	-$298	05-31 22:55
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	4	$294	470	470	+0	Yes	-$282	10-26 00:10
Will Unai Simon win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Goalkeeper of the Year award?	2	$294	335	0	+335	Yes	+$41	10-26 20:51
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$284	1,362	0	+1,362	No	-$284	10-26 18:49
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	1	$269	301	0	+301	No	+$32	08-23 18:55
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$237	362	362	+0	No	-$235	05-31 22:54
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	2	$219	150	150	+0	Yes	+$19	10-25 22:54
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$214	153	153	+0	No	+$12	10-26 06:02
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	2	$212	113	113	+0	Yes	+$12	06-21 23:16
Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher?	2	$210	143	143	+0	Haaland	+$30	10-26 05:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:10:20	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	207	58¢	$120	0xd3b4a7…
10-26 22:29:23	Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	353	100¢	$352	0x5498c8…
10-26 22:27:56	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	205	72¢	$148	0x2b15c1…
10-26 21:13:33	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	163	73¢	$120	0x27de6c…
10-26 21:12:44	Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	145	13¢	$19	0x82a050…
10-26 21:11:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	161	6¢	$9	0x6bbac0…
10-26 20:53:02	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	134	74¢	$100	0xd05835…
10-26 20:51:15	Will Unai Simon win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Goalkeeper of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0x02c740…
10-26 20:50:32	Will Unai Simon win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Goalkeeper of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	185	88¢	$162	0xf49f95…
10-26 20:49:03	Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	353	86¢	$302	0x4a3635…
10-26 18:54:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	67	73¢	$49	0x469c45…
10-26 18:49:21	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	232	21¢	$49	0x5faa15…
10-26 18:39:11	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	127	16¢	$20	0xb43634…
10-26 18:35:03	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0x2af0f7…
10-26 18:33:30	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	511	71¢	$363	0x8d9d8f…
10-26 18:31:08	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	485	20¢	$97	0x03037f…
10-26 18:25:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	479	21¢	$101	0xba878a…
10-26 18:25:33	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	202	72¢	$146	0xd4f763…
10-26 18:24:27	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	212	20¢	$42	0xde9bb6…
10-26 18:23:05	Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher?	Kvaratskhelia	BUY	204	67¢	$136	0xe49583…
10-26 18:20:33	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	373	0¢	$1	0x06ba71…
10-26 18:07:12	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,051	95¢	$999	0x163e46…
10-26 18:04:24	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	3,061	96¢	$2,939	0x2e912b…
10-26 17:22:11	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x093a50…
10-26 17:21:53	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xef0f5e…
10-26 17:17:54	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	414	62¢	$256	0xcab470…
10-26 17:16:48	Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher?	Kvaratskhelia	BUY	408	64¢	$261	0xc01114…
10-26 16:32:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	33	29¢	$10	0xf32410…
10-26 16:30:23	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	102	64¢	$65	0x020425…
10-26 16:27:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xa2b5e7…
10-26 06:02:54	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	202	55¢	$111	0x2bd002…
10-26 06:02:26	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	153	74¢	$113	0x906bb3…
10-26 05:46:03	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x932c47…
10-26 05:43:02	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xf2b0b4…
10-26 05:40:09	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	206	45¢	$92	0x93e148…
10-26 05:39:17	Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher?	Haaland	SELL	143	84¢	$120	0x6cee30…
10-26 05:25:14	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	70	28¢	$19	0x8f5b81…
10-26 05:24:36	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	52	44¢	$23	0x361d54…
10-26 05:22:32	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	166	36¢	$60	0x7f6d14…
10-26 05:15:18	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	444	63¢	$280	0xa5512d…
10-26 05:14:33	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0xaf6734…
10-26 05:13:48	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	384	57¢	$220	0x98c104…
10-26 04:57:03	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	63	23¢	$14	0x2e12da…
10-26 03:40:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x50e343…
10-26 03:36:38	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	133	21¢	$28	0xda1628…
10-26 03:24:06	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0x50e423…
10-26 03:17:17	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	209	26¢	$54	0xecc722…
10-26 03:13:27	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	1,559	28¢	$440	0x452f26…
10-26 00:13:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xf3bb14…
10-26 00:10:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	No	SELL	470	1¢	$6	0x3ad88e…
10-25 23:45:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	SELL	183	2¢	$4	0x4a3958…
10-25 23:31:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	435	0¢	$2	0x99a1e8…
10-25 23:28:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	SELL	532	2¢	$9	0x991c56…
10-25 23:16:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0xa9d3b4…
10-25 23:15:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	297	3¢	$10	0x013aa5…
10-25 23:12:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	No	BUY	158	38¢	$60	0x56568c…
10-25 23:05:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x2699c8…
10-25 23:04:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	104	5¢	$5	0x9b7004…
10-25 23:04:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	70	16¢	$11	0x99a188…
10-25 23:00:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xfe769b…
10-25 22:58:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x731772…
10-25 22:57:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	179	17¢	$30	0xb01209…
10-25 22:56:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	No	BUY	64	66¢	$42	0xe59a0e…
10-25 22:55:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0xff69d0…
10-25 22:54:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	SELL	150	79¢	$119	0x4565fd…
10-25 22:49:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0x5678c2…
10-25 22:46:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	No	BUY	248	75¢	$186	0xe91e02…
10-25 22:45:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	154	59¢	$91	0x3970a2…
10-25 22:39:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	53	28¢	$15	0x6fb95f…
10-25 22:31:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	101	60¢	$60	0xa52f15…
10-25 22:30:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	SELL	68	0¢	$0	0xe910ed…
10-25 22:24:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	66	49¢	$32	0xf381a4…
10-25 22:17:57	Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher?	Kvaratskhelia	BUY	148	72¢	$107	0xf0f2a4…
10-25 22:17:41	Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher?	Kvaratskhelia	BUY	148	67¢	$100	0x613159…
10-25 22:14:57	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	104	34¢	$35	0x0aa9a5…
10-25 18:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$14	0xc7c0ba…
10-25 18:44:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xf40954…
10-25 18:26:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x7f0ec0…
10-25 03:57:09	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1ad990…
10-25 03:54:39	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	105	66¢	$70	0x64f58e…
10-25 03:53:29	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0xc774a5…
10-25 03:52:53	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0xca67c1…
10-25 03:51:38	Will Declan Rice finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	203	88¢	$179	0x5c23f0…
10-25 03:34:51	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	152	75¢	$114	0x2a2660…
10-25 03:33:56	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	122	93¢	$114	0xdb85fe…
10-25 03:31:36	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	27	36¢	$10	0xf7f783…
10-24 19:30:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdf385a…
10-24 17:09:03	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	1,531	25¢	$390	0x5ca232…
10-24 17:08:39	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	858	23¢	$200	0x35f359…
10-24 17:07:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	515	10¢	$50	0xfe12de…
10-24 17:06:50	Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	380	11¢	$40	0x6fa408…
10-23 16:20:56	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0x7b011e…
10-23 16:16:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0xbbf5bf…
10-23 16:15:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x98fec9…
10-23 15:46:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	89¢	$114	0x5e07e6…
10-23 15:32:26	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0x8e1ed6…
10-23 15:32:15	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x26f9e5…
10-23 04:44:53	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x3ccd2a…
10-23 04:35:17	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6aee9b…
10-23 04:26:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0xbc4287…