Half-Likelihood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$580

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 05-30 12:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

50% — —

Crypto

39% 100% +$0

Tech

6% — —

Politics

5% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$101	104	+104	open	—	05-21 03:17
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$101	101	+101	open	—	05-12 10:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$65	65	+65	open	—	05-30 12:45
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	1	$51	51	+51	No	+$0	05-05 15:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$28	29	+29	No	+$1	05-09 10:33
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$16	16	+16	open	—	04-14 04:00
si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	2	$12	12	+12	open	—	01-24 13:52
will anthropic have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	01-08 23:08
will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$7	7	+7	open	—	02-24 05:34
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	03-31 13:51
will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	01-17 04:14
will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-10 21:03
will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	2	$5	5	+5	open	—	03-28 08:40
will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-10 02:02
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-08 15:59
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-09 09:55
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	01-19 21:23
will alibaba have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	02-24 04:32
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	3	$4	4	+4	open	—	03-11 13:19
amzn above 290 on january 30 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	01-13 07:51
will ethereum reach 3600 in february 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	02-20 11:21
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	04-12 03:01
Will Solana reach $160 in May?	1	$3	4	+4	open	—	05-07 03:33
will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$3	4	+4	open	—	02-24 19:23
will bnb dip to 400 in march	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	03-25 11:46
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-07 08:49
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-11 08:04
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	05-05 23:48
will ethena dip to 0 in march	2	$3	3	+3	open	—	03-21 00:48
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-15 10:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 12:45:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xae668d…
05-24 02:21:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x359791…
05-21 03:17:20	Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	104	97¢	$101	0x362f9b…
05-12 10:11:56	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xb62dc0…
05-09 10:33:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x1b946c…
05-09 09:55:35	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1c5fea…
05-08 15:59:22	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbfc5d6…
05-07 03:33:13	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x15df75…
05-06 21:44:52	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xff34f4…
05-05 23:48:22	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x585864…
05-05 15:00:24	Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xe5b5ce…
04-16 23:29:42	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe02d25…
04-16 14:18:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7f8b86…
04-16 14:10:12	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5bcb57…
04-16 02:12:10	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa9ed56…
04-16 00:18:26	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5de1f5…
04-15 10:26:38	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x412151…
04-14 04:00:43	Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x14dcd5…
04-13 18:03:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaf65b8…
04-13 12:17:29	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7e1ab5…
04-12 03:01:09	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xed8dd0…
04-11 18:53:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdd6799…
04-11 08:04:45	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2b7597…
04-11 03:43:45	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x12e70a…
04-10 09:17:15	Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x918dbd…
04-10 04:26:55	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1cba89…
04-08 22:07:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbaddfc…
04-07 11:22:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaceb67…
04-07 08:49:07	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc2f6db…
04-07 05:29:41	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f6584…
04-06 02:27:01	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5f7551…
04-05 17:41:07	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7ad85a…
04-05 14:25:21	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x398fb0…
03-31 13:51:49	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8a88ac…
03-30 14:59:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x007440…
03-30 12:40:12	will ethena reach 0pt2 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x304db8…
03-29 12:27:42	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2de46a…
03-29 12:02:08	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcedf20…
03-29 02:50:10	will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3cc907…
03-28 20:47:36	aapl above 210 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6bda3c…
03-28 08:40:09	will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x358b7c…
03-25 11:46:25	will bnb dip to 400 in march	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x135f1c…
03-23 01:27:31	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8d15b6…
03-22 18:17:57	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xee318e…
03-22 00:54:13	will chainlink reach 18 in march	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0ee037…
03-21 01:07:29	aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6741d2…
03-21 00:55:15	will solana dip to 40 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2a41c0…
03-21 00:48:53	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc1acfe…
03-11 13:19:13	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x61141f…
03-10 22:00:11	will alibaba have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x60c9c2…
03-10 20:33:57	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb1309e…
03-10 20:03:21	msft above 495 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xacf447…
03-10 17:39:33	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b0805…
03-09 23:41:45	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5f933b…
03-09 05:33:47	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x96169b…
03-09 01:28:51	bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x25c70c…
03-08 09:09:37	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc10a8c…
03-08 08:13:19	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x174f63…
03-07 23:39:21	will bnb reach 1100 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf85d8a…
03-06 14:07:03	will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7b73a4…
03-05 21:51:05	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xca25eb…
03-05 21:18:33	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeb2c1c…
03-03 21:05:41	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x926b8f…
03-03 10:16:57	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x5da34e…
02-24 22:27:56	googl above 370 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd8628f…
02-24 19:23:34	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xa872da…
02-24 05:34:00	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x08ce35…
02-24 04:32:38	will alibaba have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1f5d47…
02-23 05:10:28	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x73c2f3…
02-22 02:02:22	meta above 760 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfa3ed0…
02-21 08:39:24	tsla above 470 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x32b49a…
02-20 21:53:32	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc3f2a9…
02-20 12:50:20	aapl above 320 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcbc89a…
02-20 11:21:24	will ethereum reach 3600 in february 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0ef121…
02-08 16:59:09	nflx above 40 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfdb926…
02-08 10:19:59	will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc7b278…
02-06 17:15:23	will zai have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7c1716…
02-04 17:18:29	nflx above 200 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x694e83…
01-24 13:52:46	si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x074c1e…
01-22 16:43:38	will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9986d6…
01-21 08:31:52	will chainlink dip to 6 in january	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x65fd47…
01-19 21:23:36	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6dbebe…
01-17 04:14:56	will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf2784c…
01-14 22:17:22	si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf402dc…
01-13 07:51:47	amzn above 290 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3a64f9…
01-10 21:03:50	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9c6d4b…
01-10 02:02:14	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0b4f96…
01-08 23:08:32	will anthropic have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xac650a…