Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
open
Total volume
$2,873
$5,494 in 24h
Trades
55
Unique wallets
22
Liquidity
$9,895
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2026-06-17
First seen
2026-05-05
last 05-16 16:31
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.6¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $231
vs crowd: 1% YES on $2.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $2.0K | $2.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | — | $533 | $533 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | — | $274 | $274 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 11 | $18 | $20 | $2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $231 | $231 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $274 | $274 |
| Median | 4 | $2 | $57 | $55 |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | $60 | $59 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $75 | $75 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | — | $2.1K | $2.1K |
| unranked | 6 | $14 | — | +$14 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | +1,996 | $1,978 | $1,978 | 18 | 05-14 14:24 |
| Detailed-Synthesis 0x44cf…2211 | Yes | +691 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 05-13 23:39 |
| Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | +234 | $231 | $231 | 4 | 05-14 14:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x10ea…02ed | Yes | +196 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-16 12:51 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +167 | $165 | $165 | 6 | 05-14 14:24 |
| Legitimate-Worth 0x1c42…213b | Yes | +101 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-15 11:06 |
| Cheery-Leap-Pressurisation 0xa328…4977 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 05-11 10:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xb138…36ab | Yes | +88 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-15 13:17 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +76 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 05-15 11:06 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +60 | $59 | $59 | 1 | 05-15 11:06 |
| Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521 | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 05-15 11:06 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +41 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 05-14 11:09 |
| Late-Tool-Appeal 0x3dbd…1939 | Yes | +34 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 05-15 11:06 |
| Cautious-Antique 0x0957…77e8 | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-14 11:22 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-14 11:22 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +28 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 05-09 12:52 |
| Flippant-Bass 0x5566…7c29 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-07 10:20 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 16:31:19 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x5963a2… |
| 05-16 12:51:03 | (anonymous) 0x10ea…02ed | Yes | BUY | 196 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x41a2de… |
| 05-15 13:17:22 | (anonymous) 0xb138…36ab | Yes | BUY | 88 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x7e14b3… |
| 05-15 13:17:20 | (anonymous) 0x978c…9f5b | Yes | SELL | 17 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x80cf56… |
| 05-15 13:17:18 | (anonymous) 0x5795…30fa | Yes | BUY | 156 | 1¢ | $2 | 0xbfd5bf… |
| 05-15 13:14:36 | (anonymous) 0x6130…f1ed | Yes | SELL | 17 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3557ec… |
| 05-15 11:12:04 | (anonymous) 0x6130…f1ed | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0ce0f4… |
| 05-15 11:12:04 | (anonymous) 0x6130…f1ed | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x374d55… |
| 05-15 11:11:13 | (anonymous) 0x5795…30fa | Yes | SELL | 56 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1da908… |
| 05-15 11:11:13 | (anonymous) 0x5795…30fa | Yes | SELL | 62 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd0c8e1… |
| 05-15 11:11:11 | (anonymous) 0x5795…30fa | Yes | SELL | 70 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x41137e… |
| 05-15 11:11:10 | (anonymous) 0xe316…1766 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe510e9… |
| 05-15 11:11:10 | (anonymous) 0xe316…1766 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa1cfcb… |
| 05-15 11:11:08 | (anonymous) 0xe316…1766 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xcdb1ce… |
| 05-15 11:06:05 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 60 | 99¢ | $59 | 0x8afc77… |
| 05-15 11:06:03 | Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | BUY | 76 | 99¢ | $75 | 0x7df74d… |
| 05-15 11:06:02 | Legitimate-Worth 0x1c42…213b | Yes | BUY | 101 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x2bab4f… |
| 05-15 11:06:02 | Late-Tool-Appeal 0x3dbd…1939 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1b92b3… |
| 05-15 11:06:02 | Late-Tool-Appeal 0x3dbd…1939 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe4c0e5… |
| 05-15 11:06:02 | Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x7c5479… |
| 05-14 14:24:26 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0x8ea571… |
| 05-14 14:24:26 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 62 | 100¢ | $62 | 0x4cf082… |
| 05-14 14:24:26 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 106 | 100¢ | $106 | 0xa49378… |
| 05-14 14:24:26 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x2fc770… |
| 05-14 14:24:26 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 302 | 100¢ | $301 | 0xa28af2… |
| 05-14 12:39:26 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 17 | 100¢ | $17 | 0x36d147… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x4dc5bc… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0x3925a6… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0xdfd3c7… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 100 | 99¢ | $100 | 0xbfbd2b… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0x187990… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 63 | 99¢ | $63 | 0x12caaf… |
| 05-14 11:22:12 | Cautious-Antique 0x0957…77e8 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x71100e… |
| 05-14 11:14:40 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0x4d9c20… |
| 05-14 11:14:40 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 121 | 99¢ | $120 | 0x1d289f… |
| 05-14 11:14:40 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 113 | 99¢ | $112 | 0x6fb7be… |
| 05-14 11:14:40 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 25 | 99¢ | $25 | 0xf35d16… |
| 05-14 11:14:40 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 78 | 99¢ | $77 | 0x1a48ea… |
| 05-14 11:09:55 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 27 | 99¢ | $27 | 0xea6368… |
| 05-14 11:09:55 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 323 | 99¢ | $319 | 0xae50c6… |
| 05-14 11:09:55 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 101 | 99¢ | $100 | 0xcd0006… |
| 05-14 11:09:25 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 94 | 99¢ | $93 | 0x02fa93… |
| 05-14 11:09:25 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0xb9a8a1… |
| 05-14 11:09:17 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0xa6ed4e… |
| 05-14 11:09:17 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 41 | 99¢ | $41 | 0x2338f4… |
| 05-13 23:39:08 | Detailed-Synthesis 0x44cf…2211 | Yes | BUY | 691 | 2¢ | $12 | 0x92659c… |
| 05-13 22:33:48 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 63 | 99¢ | $62 | 0x4ec323… |
| 05-13 22:33:43 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x4c48db… |
| 05-13 22:33:43 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 101 | 98¢ | $99 | 0x144750… |
| 05-13 22:33:43 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 140 | 98¢ | $138 | 0xea6260… |
| 05-11 10:47:18 | Cheery-Leap-Pressurisation 0xa328…4977 | No | BUY | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0x32c910… |
| 05-09 12:52:25 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 77 | 99¢ | $76 | 0xa6eec0… |
| 05-09 12:52:25 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | BUY | 28 | 99¢ | $28 | 0x9c04f8… |
| 05-07 10:20:05 | Flippant-Bass 0x5566…7c29 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x87b676… |
| 05-05 06:30:50 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x3de8b1… |