Glossy-Believer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.68K

Unrealized P&L

+$5.25K

Hit rate

92.9%

Resolved

53,984

Trades

239,725

lifetime

Volume

$4.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$119.7K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 10-27 00:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 184 days

Categories

Other

76% 89% +$10,682

Politics

13% 87% -$2,028

Sports

9% 91% +$1,781

Tech

1% 81% -$1,817

Crypto

1% 86% -$44

Pop-Culture

0% 91% +$1,110

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2710 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+15,098	$12,447	100¢	$15.1K	+$2,636	10-26 22:27
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+13,595	$12,189	100¢	$13.6K	+$1,392	10-26 22:41
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+13,346	$13,265	100¢	$13.3K	+$68	10-26 22:11
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+9,084	$8,998	100¢	$9.1K	+$72	10-26 22:08
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+8,279	$8,045	100¢	$8.3K	+$226	10-26 22:44
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+6,174	$6,118	100¢	$6.2K	+$46	10-22 13:42
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+4,472	$4,450	100¢	$4.5K	+$16	10-22 16:29
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+4,308	$4,297	100¢	$4.3K	+$4	10-17 15:03
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+3,729	$3,590	100¢	$3.7K	+$133	10-26 15:25
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+2,964	$2,925	100¢	$3.0K	+$32	09-08 22:49
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+2,766	$2,557	97¢	$2.7K	+$122	10-04 21:41
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+2,272	$2,181	100¢	$2.3K	+$88	09-11 23:07
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+2,189	$2,149	98¢	$2.1K	-$5	10-25 21:08
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+2,121	$1,805	100¢	$2.1K	+$313	09-26 17:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+2,108	$2,092	100¢	$2.1K	+$9	10-15 12:42
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+2,076	$2,065	100¢	$2.1K	+$7	09-11 23:06
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+2,064	$1,988	97¢	$2.0K	+$21	10-26 16:00
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,998	$1,947	97¢	$1.9K	-$6	10-26 09:22
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,904	$1,890	100¢	$1.9K	+$6	10-25 21:08
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,884	$1,873	100¢	$1.9K	+$6	10-25 21:08
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,829	$1,818	100¢	$1.8K	+$5	10-25 21:08
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+1,820	$1,814	100¢	$1.8K	+$3	09-07 06:31
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,824	$1,812	99¢	$1.8K	+$2	10-25 21:08
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+1,786	$1,784	100¢	$1.8K	-$1	09-20 18:39
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,784	$1,777	100¢	$1.8K	+$4	10-25 21:08
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,786	$1,771	99¢	$1.8K	+$3	10-25 21:08
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+1,866	$1,682	94¢	$1.7K	+$63	10-26 03:32
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+1,723	$1,715	99¢	$1.7K	-$2	10-25 19:23
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+2,158	$1,761	78¢	$1.7K	-$67	10-26 09:23
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+1,672	$1,610	99¢	$1.7K	+$50	10-23 02:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	479	$13.3K	13,346	212	+13,134	open	—	10-26 22:11
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	489	$13.0K	13,063	14	+13,049	No	+$90	07-27 15:06
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	582	$12.5K	15,098	57	+15,040	open	—	10-26 22:27
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	491	$12.2K	13,595	68	+13,527	open	—	10-26 22:41
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	366	$9.0K	9,084	10,164	-1,080	open	—	10-26 22:08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	305	$8.3K	8,304	221	+8,083	No	+$36	07-29 01:47
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	345	$8.0K	8,279	359	+7,920	open	—	10-26 22:44
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	229	$7.4K	7,530	51	+7,479	No	+$103	09-09 17:19
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	214	$7.4K	7,507	123	+7,384	No	+$154	07-24 14:48
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	291	$7.3K	7,325	50	+7,275	No	+$12	09-07 18:57
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	313	$7.2K	7,375	176	+7,199	No	+$137	09-20 14:34
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?	209	$7.2K	7,197	123	+7,074	No	+$23	07-22 14:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	227	$6.9K	6,992	50	+6,942	No	+$56	09-15 03:04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	240	$6.8K	6,838	221	+6,617	No	+$36	07-28 18:34
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?	192	$6.6K	6,769	159	+6,611	No	+$161	07-24 14:21
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	227	$6.6K	6,597	351	+6,246	No	+$49	06-14 00:41
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	287	$6.1K	6,174	144	+6,030	open	—	10-22 13:42
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	171	$6.1K	6,147	204	+5,943	No	+$34	07-24 02:40
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	229	$6.1K	7,992	140	+7,852	No	+$1,959	07-24 12:19
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?	165	$6.1K	6,080	123	+5,957	No	+$14	07-24 10:24
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	169	$5.9K	5,986	121	+5,864	No	+$60	07-23 20:17
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?	156	$5.8K	5,923	221	+5,702	No	+$81	07-24 13:32
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	229	$5.7K	8,425	120	+8,305	No	+$2,841	07-24 14:23
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	264	$5.7K	5,910	157	+5,752	No	+$255	09-20 14:06
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	211	$5.5K	5,587	68	+5,519	No	+$62	09-16 00:05
Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	162	$5.4K	5,373	744	+4,630	No	+$16	07-24 09:33
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	526	$5.1K	15,092	91	+15,001	open	—	10-26 22:40
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	160	$5.1K	6,854	214	+6,640	No	+$1,895	07-24 15:30
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	179	$5.0K	5,066	26	+5,040	No	+$41	06-23 11:05
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	145	$5.0K	5,018	151	+4,867	No	+$53	06-21 10:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 00:56:20	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x9a28ad…
10-27 00:46:20	Will Zoran Stojiljković be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	515	2¢	$8	0xcd1f89…
10-27 00:46:20	Will "Too Much to Ask" from Ray Gunn win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x8b79f0…
10-27 00:36:21	Will "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x5e3e68…
10-27 00:36:21	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0x316bc7…
10-27 00:31:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xe50478…
10-27 00:31:20	Will "Let Me Sell You a Dream" from Musk win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x573f12…
10-27 00:31:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0x1ab238…
10-27 00:21:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	57¢	$0	0x8cb040…
10-26 23:46:20	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $21M and $22.5M?	Yes	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0x0127c1…
10-26 23:16:21	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb5d732…
10-26 23:15:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xe73bfd…
10-26 23:12:59	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in November?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x875b5e…
10-26 23:11:21	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0xbccd8b…
10-26 23:11:20	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0xb46f9e…
10-26 23:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 27?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x610a0a…
10-26 23:03:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x514b34…
10-26 23:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 28?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf1ebe2…
10-26 22:59:15	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0xc040ac…
10-26 22:59:06	Will Lionel Messi finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x29dcb0…
10-26 22:58:35	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x59f087…
10-26 22:57:09	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 7°C on October 28?	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xf6d458…
10-26 22:57:09	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 3°C on October 28?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x64290d…
10-26 22:55:42	Will Erling Haaland finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x5c16c1…
10-26 22:55:12	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd5d0d0…
10-26 22:55:08	Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc1dc58…
10-26 22:54:21	Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x802479…
10-26 22:54:12	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xded4f6…
10-26 22:54:11	Will Rodri finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x80c791…
10-26 22:54:11	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x473c1b…
10-26 22:53:00	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc62fb8…
10-26 22:52:59	Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6842a4…
10-26 22:51:29	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x138859…
10-26 22:47:56	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	75	72¢	$54	0xe704dd…
10-26 22:46:20	Will White House post 160-179 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x217eee…
10-26 22:45:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x2110f1…
10-26 22:45:35	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x066dab…
10-26 22:44:02	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x5e1813…
10-26 22:43:00	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb41e66…
10-26 22:41:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0xb9877e…
10-26 22:41:20	Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xad32ad…
10-26 22:41:20	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xa6ed8e…
10-26 22:41:20	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x1a4c43…
10-26 22:41:20	Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x0a9895…
10-26 22:40:54	Will Fabian Ruiz finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x27afdd…
10-26 22:40:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x2ab08b…
10-26 22:40:32	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xe3b24c…
10-26 22:40:26	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x10c628…
10-26 22:40:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x8ec14e…
10-26 22:40:24	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x0aebb4…
10-26 22:36:44	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0xcb5ae0…
10-26 22:36:20	Will Together win 11-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xa2ba4b…
10-26 22:36:18	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x41ab41…
10-26 22:36:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xd2e64a…
10-26 22:36:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xa310a0…
10-26 22:35:33	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x409bd7…
10-26 22:35:32	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x932642…
10-26 22:35:27	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xeda671…
10-26 22:35:26	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x62d85b…
10-26 22:35:23	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbbaf8c…
10-26 22:34:59	Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	23	37¢	$8	0xce4e3f…
10-26 22:34:54	Will White House post 0-19 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x75f18d…
10-26 22:34:00	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xcc9b85…
10-26 22:33:48	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x66e2b5…
10-26 22:33:47	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4a0ea5…
10-26 22:33:42	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0e9534…
10-26 22:33:41	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xeadd28…
10-26 22:33:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x361869…
10-26 22:31:20	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xb77200…
10-26 22:31:20	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x55a238…
10-26 22:31:20	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x316846…
10-26 22:30:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x2db928…
10-26 22:30:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x9036de…
10-26 22:29:51	Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x247c04…
10-26 22:28:38	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xf230ad…
10-26 22:28:26	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x258528…
10-26 22:28:24	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x42f039…
10-26 22:28:12	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x325afd…
10-26 22:28:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x5c4062…
10-26 22:27:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xc1ff1e…
10-26 22:27:32	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xaa6225…
10-26 22:27:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x3472de…
10-26 22:27:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x4bce76…
10-26 22:26:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xcca4cd…
10-26 22:26:56	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	75	30¢	$22	0x79f1f7…
10-26 22:26:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x8a2be9…
10-26 22:26:47	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x87257c…
10-26 22:26:42	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x6b41a3…
10-26 22:26:39	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xb640fe…
10-26 22:26:39	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x9cf7e3…
10-26 22:26:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x87db6a…
10-26 22:26:33	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x1f7ff3…
10-26 22:26:30	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xe2d3ef…
10-26 22:26:30	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x1d5d8a…
10-26 22:26:23	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x557333…
10-26 22:26:21	Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xe83d3b…
10-26 22:26:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x970d35…
10-26 22:26:21	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x902caa…
10-26 22:26:21	Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x305908…
10-26 22:26:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xa97fba…