Detailed-Synthesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$90

Hit rate

15.8%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$25.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$443

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 08-26 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

59% 16% -$7,458

Politics

34% 9% -$7,022

Tech

7% 25% -$1,337

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+594	$155	37¢	$220	+$65	08-19 11:11
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+2,950	$177	5¢	$145	-$32	08-20 16:57
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+3,100	$121	2¢	$64	-$57	08-20 19:40
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+400	$80	4¢	$15	-$65	08-20 19:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	13	$5.0K	1,112,000	0	+1,112,000	Yes	-$4,986	04-10 11:53
will sp 500 spx hit 6300 low in march 2026	14	$4.2K	17,633	2,121	+15,512	No	-$2,369	03-31 19:29
will sp 500 spx hit 6400 low in march 2026	8	$2.5K	1,998	1,998	+0	Yes	+$501	03-27 17:31
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	12	$1.5K	19,807	19,807	+0	No	-$759	04-27 10:12
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	6	$1.2K	27,040	0	+27,040	No	-$1,207	08-03 18:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	7	$1.1K	19,357	0	+19,357	No	-$1,117	04-07 15:02
will sp 500 spx hit 6200 low in march 2026	7	$905	4,670	1,509	+3,162	No	-$271	03-30 19:27
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	4	$832	8,153	8,153	+0	No	-$766	04-13 01:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	3	$550	1,919	0	+1,919	No	-$550	04-08 10:17
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?	3	$500	1,450	0	+1,450	No	-$500	03-12 15:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	12	$442	4,286	400	+3,886	No	-$290	04-09 16:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	3	$422	1,743	300	+1,443	No	-$218	04-08 10:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	9	$374	46,571	0	+46,571	No	-$374	04-12 08:48
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$368	1,156	1,156	+0	No	+$8	05-12 11:30
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$356	248	248	+0	Yes	+$116	03-09 13:01
Kash Patel out by April 30?	2	$350	1,551	0	+1,551	No	-$350	04-04 12:35
will sp 500 spx hit 6000 low in march 2026	1	$300	6,031	0	+6,031	No	-$300	03-28 05:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$266	38,000	0	+38,000	No	-$266	04-14 13:52
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30?	2	$260	318	0	+318	Yes	+$58	04-02 14:21
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	3	$224	3,522	3,522	+0	No	-$217	05-29 12:40
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 14 2026	1	$200	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$200	04-09 11:11
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	1	$200	328	0	+328	No	-$200	05-12 11:34
Kash Patel out by June 30?	1	$200	556	0	+556	No	-$200	05-12 11:33
kash patel out by march 31	3	$191	866	264	+603	No	-$189	03-31 20:01
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$177	2,950	0	+2,950	open	—	08-20 16:57
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	4	$175	8,964	0	+8,964	No	-$175	05-13 23:39
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$174	1,157	1,157	+0	No	+$58	08-19 11:26
will openai ipo by september 30 2026	6	$173	6,671	0	+6,671	No	-$173	08-13 13:53
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	4	$160	1,474	0	+1,474	No	-$160	06-01 18:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$160	14,224	0	+14,224	No	-$160	04-02 11:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 16:44:27	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	22¢	$32	0xefb4ae…
08-20 19:40:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,100	4¢	$121	0x2d6ea3…
08-20 19:37:36	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	20¢	$80	0x97a73b…
08-20 17:01:21	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0xe4d2e1…
08-20 16:57:52	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,950	6¢	$177	0x15bd68…
08-19 11:26:43	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	1,157	10¢	$116	0xe18f06…
08-19 11:11:42	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	180	29¢	$52	0x911605…
08-19 11:09:30	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	166	15¢	$26	0xea0130…
08-18 16:47:07	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	117	29¢	$34	0x7fc471…
08-18 16:27:36	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0x3ed64f…
08-15 16:31:40	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xb795aa…
08-14 18:59:45	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	373	10¢	$39	0x36b84a…
08-13 13:53:39	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$49	0x06f0d8…
08-13 13:49:10	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	9¢	$3	0xff23df…
08-13 06:57:52	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	320	2¢	$7	0x7f094c…
08-12 09:19:01	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	239	2¢	$5	0x1fc691…
08-12 09:18:58	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,378	2¢	$27	0xa9ddf1…
08-11 16:36:45	Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	248	21¢	$51	0x345f6e…
08-11 16:32:58	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	81	13¢	$11	0x373f5c…
08-10 15:35:25	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	297	23¢	$69	0x1a3dd6…
08-10 13:08:19	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,487	3¢	$79	0xacd39a…
08-06 11:18:41	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	247	3¢	$7	0x057768…
08-05 11:41:33	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	1,157	5¢	$58	0x5a1f92…
08-03 18:19:23	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	3,540	5¢	$168	0xf51dc2…
08-03 18:16:24	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	2,548	4¢	$107	0xe2be09…
08-03 16:12:03	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	3,000	4¢	$126	0xdc9916…
07-31 13:38:59	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	1,430	6¢	$91	0x9a9c73…
07-31 12:58:32	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	4,392	5¢	$232	0x0d6b64…
07-31 12:56:14	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	12,130	4¢	$483	0xcfa2a4…
07-03 03:59:04	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	356	0¢	$2	0xb1521e…
06-02 18:32:06	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	356	4¢	$16	0x38f25d…
06-02 18:28:30	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	253	2¢	$5	0x05d227…
06-02 18:28:11	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	No	BUY	841	6¢	$50	0x799e6a…
06-01 18:46:47	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	BUY	372	11¢	$42	0xb68974…
06-01 13:27:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,706	2¢	$80	0x5fd438…
06-01 13:25:01	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	BUY	386	13¢	$50	0x481da3…
06-01 13:23:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	BUY	236	10¢	$24	0xabe5b3…
06-01 09:22:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$50	0x57e00c…
05-31 12:04:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6,675	1¢	$80	0x3d1fec…
05-29 14:12:35	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	1,042	1¢	$13	0x96bc91…
05-29 14:04:04	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	BUY	480	9¢	$45	0x4b6d5d…
05-29 13:55:21	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	1,889	1¢	$14	0x719417…
05-29 13:52:56	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	488	5¢	$26	0x1419d0…
05-29 12:40:17	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	3,522	0¢	$4	0x02c112…
05-27 10:54:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,704	3¢	$100	0x896705…
05-13 23:39:08	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	BUY	691	2¢	$12	0x92659c…
05-13 10:50:48	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	BUY	4,331	2¢	$100	0xc0a051…
05-12 14:51:07	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	BUY	1,780	1¢	$25	0xcd2ef0…
05-12 11:35:38	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	BUY	2,163	2¢	$38	0x3b623a…
05-12 11:34:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0x4aad1d…
05-12 11:33:11	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	556	36¢	$200	0x64245b…
05-12 11:30:39	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,156	16¢	$188	0x364646…
05-11 02:03:38	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,156	16¢	$180	0x657d53…
04-27 10:12:24	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19,807	2¢	$387	0xd1ae13…
04-14 13:52:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38,000	1¢	$266	0x6ce208…
04-13 01:47:49	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	SELL	8,153	0¢	$33	0x12bf16…
04-12 10:46:01	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,831	8¢	$377	0xda4c8a…
04-12 09:51:31	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	8¢	$5	0x9dd8ad…
04-12 09:18:27	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xb92d66…
04-12 09:18:23	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x666465…
04-12 08:48:57	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x61637e…
04-12 08:48:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	894	1¢	$12	0x3c8a90…
04-12 08:48:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	397	1¢	$5	0xcc4ff9…
04-12 08:48:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	567	1¢	$7	0x383ac7…
04-12 08:48:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	810	1¢	$11	0xefb472…
04-12 08:48:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,142	1¢	$15	0xd4a1f3…
04-12 08:48:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,632	1¢	$21	0x88a876…
04-12 08:47:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,558	1¢	$33	0xace7f7…
04-10 11:53:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	23,000	0¢	$23	0xf3d324…
04-10 11:52:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	200,000	0¢	$200	0xb2d5d0…
04-10 11:18:37	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	1,657	11¢	$187	0x7651c2…
04-10 11:00:01	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	1,865	2¢	$33	0xe6aa55…
04-09 19:35:09	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,734	5¢	$86	0xffd426…
04-09 19:02:37	Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,762	0¢	$8	0xd89b55…
04-09 19:02:03	Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,730	0¢	$10	0x0bd9b8…
04-09 16:05:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x5bd90c…
04-09 16:05:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	555	6¢	$34	0x8f5977…
04-09 16:04:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xe62ea8…
04-09 16:03:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	79	6¢	$5	0x4f4f6d…
04-09 15:59:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	210	6¢	$13	0x1f722d…
04-09 12:59:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	388	6¢	$24	0xa09cb7…
04-09 11:19:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	134	6¢	$8	0xe99500…
04-09 11:19:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xeb9e4f…
04-09 11:19:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0x5cec6a…
04-09 11:18:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,611	6¢	$100	0xb52d99…
04-09 11:11:21	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x4c08c8…
04-09 09:55:11	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$499	0xcb7dc4…
04-09 09:48:47	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	200,000	0¢	$600	0xbed452…
04-09 09:33:57	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,375	3¢	$300	0x60bfdc…
04-09 09:31:51	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	681	15¢	$100	0xd9cf73…
04-09 09:31:11	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1,057	9¢	$100	0xb9d960…
04-09 09:30:55	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x6693a8…
04-09 09:24:53	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2,096	10¢	$200	0x0efe99…
04-09 09:24:29	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	1,813	6¢	$100	0x04b3a5…
04-08 20:29:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	120,000	1¢	$840	0xbcf0a8…
04-08 20:28:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	150,000	1¢	$1,050	0xd7e65c…
04-08 19:54:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	75,500	1¢	$528	0x746331…
04-08 19:38:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	35,000	1¢	$210	0x72a289…
04-08 18:47:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	60,000	1¢	$360	0x7fb902…
04-08 16:11:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	50,000	1¢	$300	0x53db9f…