Frayed-Cream — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$439

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

16.5%

Resolved

811

Trades

8,830

lifetime

Volume

$7.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 06-03 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

78% 10% -$249

Politics

15% 32% -$63

Sports

4% 4% -$76

Crypto

3% 11% -$48

Tech

0% 0% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-03).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	81¢	$0	-$1	05-08 16:59
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	+0	$0	18¢	$0	$0	06-03 13:49
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	16¢	$0	-$1	05-12 18:48
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	05-16 07:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	33	$486	1,312	1,312	+0	No	-$4	05-09 21:04
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	28	$480	1,344	1,344	+0	Yes	-$5	05-13 09:36
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	59	$462	1,269	1,269	+0	No	-$2	05-10 18:50
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	25	$363	934	934	+0	No	-$2	05-14 17:44
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	11	$254	930	930	+0	No	-$4	05-08 16:02
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	12	$247	322	377	-55	Yes	+$3	05-07 22:39
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	8	$235	499	499	+0	No	+$4	05-10 05:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	10	$161	158	158	+0	Yes	-$3	05-11 00:46
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	15	$151	586	585	+0	No	-$3	05-15 13:31
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	6	$149	225	225	+0	No	+$0	05-12 23:44
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	6	$148	681	681	+0	No	-$9	05-15 22:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	4	$146	646	646	+0	No	-$4	05-06 12:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	9	$143	628	628	+0	Yes	-$15	05-14 12:07
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	5	$143	318	318	+0	No	-$4	05-14 13:33
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	6	$135	568	568	+0	No	-$1	05-13 07:06
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	2	$128	328	328	+0	No	+$3	05-08 00:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	4	$125	562	562	+0	No	-$6	05-12 06:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	4	$124	596	596	+0	No	-$9	05-06 11:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	4	$123	611	611	+0	No	-$13	05-10 20:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$121	356	356	+0	open	—	05-12 10:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$120	482	482	+0	No	-$24	05-08 00:40
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	16	$116	489	489	+0	No	-$2	05-10 18:04
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$115	84	84	+0	open	—	05-07 14:30
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	4	$113	191	191	+0	No	-$1	05-10 06:27
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	2	$112	81	81	+0	No	$0	05-07 17:16
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	6	$110	303	303	+0	No	-$2	05-15 14:52
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	4	$103	216	216	+0	No	-$2	05-13 08:01
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$98	278	278	+0	No	-$1	05-15 16:57
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$96	139	139	+0	No	$0	05-12 04:34
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	2	$94	82	82	+0	Yes	-$2	05-07 15:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 13:49:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	42	19¢	$8	0x5da5f1…
06-03 13:49:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	20¢	$8	0x042d72…
05-29 16:56:36	Will Harman Bhangu win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x449d3e…
05-19 04:46:12	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	SELL	187	0¢	$1	0xf383b6…
05-18 19:03:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0x971269…
05-18 11:13:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	SELL	267	0¢	$1	0xe93d79…
05-16 09:29:21	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x61b774…
05-16 09:26:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf80b6c…
05-16 09:23:09	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x456d68…
05-16 09:22:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	SELL	1,001	0¢	$1	0xc1b762…
05-16 09:22:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb3dc27…
05-16 09:22:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x477a65…
05-16 09:21:52	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	SELL	608	0¢	$1	0xe595f7…
05-16 09:21:34	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xeb77f8…
05-16 07:14:45	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	SELL	163	13¢	$21	0x3189ec…
05-16 07:14:00	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	14¢	$23	0xdeecd3…
05-16 03:29:12	Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?	Yes	SELL	235	10¢	$24	0x7b1409…
05-16 03:24:32	Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?	Yes	BUY	235	12¢	$28	0x6721ea…
05-15 23:47:15	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	SELL	35	23¢	$8	0x88b941…
05-15 23:47:11	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	BUY	35	23¢	$8	0xc93820…
05-15 22:08:29	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	9¢	$21	0x91de70…
05-15 22:04:09	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	10¢	$23	0xbe69b4…
05-15 16:57:29	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	137	16¢	$22	0xa99554…
05-15 16:54:57	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	137	16¢	$22	0xfb6e97…
05-15 16:22:24	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x9fe55b…
05-15 16:20:21	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x528ad8…
05-15 16:20:16	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x91799b…
05-15 16:20:14	Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xe2f73a…
05-15 14:52:11	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	20¢	$24	0x5c8774…
05-15 14:50:45	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	21¢	$25	0x865f1d…
05-15 13:31:57	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	89	10¢	$9	0x7cfc48…
05-15 13:29:58	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0x1bf7b8…
05-15 12:51:52	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	55	12¢	$6	0xa8c0d0…
05-15 12:48:14	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	55	11¢	$6	0x43b43c…
05-15 12:37:40	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	92	11¢	$10	0xb18d9c…
05-15 12:37:37	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0xa2bea8…
05-15 04:05:00	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	SELL	52	50¢	$26	0xefb621…
05-15 04:00:08	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	Yes	BUY	52	51¢	$26	0x5d64b5…
05-15 01:09:38	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	SELL	104	24¢	$25	0xe0b8a6…
05-15 01:08:42	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	BUY	104	26¢	$27	0x95ac04…
05-14 17:44:03	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	25¢	$19	0x858883…
05-14 17:43:40	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	25¢	$19	0x526da4…
05-14 16:33:52	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	8¢	$20	0x3f8dfd…
05-14 16:31:50	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	247	10¢	$25	0x7d039d…
05-14 15:28:27	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	12¢	$8	0x14ffa2…
05-14 15:26:49	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	12¢	$8	0x38358f…
05-14 13:33:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	SELL	128	20¢	$26	0x6aaa83…
05-14 13:32:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	101	22¢	$22	0xd98bc7…
05-14 13:32:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	26	22¢	$6	0x738036…
05-14 12:07:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	299	10¢	$29	0x331d6d…
05-14 12:06:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	299	12¢	$36	0x686402…
05-14 11:47:48	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	19¢	$17	0xd280ef…
05-14 11:46:51	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	21¢	$19	0x834bf0…
05-14 11:42:47	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	16¢	$20	0xac0c0b…
05-14 11:39:51	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	17¢	$21	0x2af9cb…
05-14 09:07:06	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	25¢	$22	0x360fff…
05-14 09:02:22	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	25¢	$22	0x106f53…
05-14 06:46:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	212	10¢	$20	0xa96715…
05-14 06:44:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	192	12¢	$23	0x0d6d62…
05-14 06:43:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x572fde…
05-14 06:43:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xcecfbf…
05-14 06:43:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe3a00f…
05-14 06:11:22	Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?	Yes	SELL	24	8¢	$2	0x814f45…
05-14 06:07:12	Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xfed8dd…
05-14 06:07:07	Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?	Yes	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x6a75f4…
05-14 06:06:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	97	13¢	$12	0x6622b1…
05-14 06:01:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	97	16¢	$16	0xd3ab5f…
05-13 19:09:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	76	26¢	$19	0x8cb950…
05-13 19:07:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	76	29¢	$22	0xc43645…
05-13 19:04:11	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	21	82¢	$18	0x5647ca…
05-13 19:00:37	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$17	0xcc05fb…
05-13 18:59:36	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x6828e9…
05-13 18:59:33	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xc54229…
05-13 18:59:31	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x3e1585…
05-13 18:59:10	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x82c9fe…
05-13 18:55:29	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb8f61a…
05-13 18:51:05	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x4250b9…
05-13 18:51:03	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc50e96…
05-13 18:03:55	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	23	81¢	$19	0x22e4dd…
05-13 17:59:26	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0x60c7af…
05-13 14:02:38	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	18¢	$24	0x9f1e61…
05-13 14:02:31	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	18¢	$24	0x86b0d8…
05-13 10:37:49	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	17¢	$10	0x3a1430…
05-13 10:37:37	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x373c82…
05-13 10:06:47	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	36¢	$24	0x5b68c9…
05-13 10:06:12	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0xf072f5…
05-13 09:36:45	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	14¢	$22	0x65cb4b…
05-13 09:36:06	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	14¢	$22	0x88ca24…
05-13 09:22:46	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	162	17¢	$28	0x9609af…
05-13 09:22:41	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	17¢	$28	0x1d1e0b…
05-13 08:01:22	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	23¢	$28	0x21dcbb…
05-13 07:56:39	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	24¢	$29	0xd92ff3…
05-13 07:06:18	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	244	10¢	$25	0x15c678…
05-13 07:05:26	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	244	12¢	$29	0x7607b2…
05-13 06:56:16	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	12¢	$6	0x291bbf…
05-13 06:54:10	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	12¢	$6	0x91e85b…
05-13 06:31:11	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	235	14¢	$33	0x834dd7…
05-13 06:30:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	14¢	$33	0x90f289…
05-13 04:10:43	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	18¢	$22	0xf032c3…
05-13 04:05:46	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	18¢	$22	0xddf115…