Substantial-Derivative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

59.6%

Resolved

Trades

45,711

lifetime

Volume

$60.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-19 08:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

66% 100% +$9

Crypto

20% 20% $-4

Sports

8% 57% +$0

Politics

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kim Min-Jae record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?	No		+2	$-2	100¢	$2	+$4	03-27 15:10
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5)	Hamarkameratene		-26	$-1	3¢	$-1	+$1	06-19 08:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 1	156	$481	580	585	-5	open	—	03-01 11:20
will jaxson dart be the 2025 2026 nfl offensive rookie of the year 531	306	$329	5,795	3,423	+2,372	open	—	02-05 22:33
will anthropic be the first company to have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	46	$296	1,234	1,499	-265	open	—	02-09 19:52
will natus vincere win blast open rotterdam 2026	279	$265	1,941	1,229	+712	open	—	03-26 10:19
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 65 89	81	$258	247	247	+0	open	—	02-28 15:12
will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	58	$236	172	168	+4	open	—	03-01 14:21
will furia win blast open rotterdam 2026	221	$231	1,788	1,270	+518	open	—	03-23 17:09
will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on february 28	86	$212	299	303	-4	open	—	02-28 14:05
bitcoin above 66k on february 28	92	$201	259	253	+6	open	—	02-28 14:04
will mrbeast hit 474 million subscribers by march 31 977 964	47	$198	173	147	+25	open	—	03-26 07:39
highest temperature in dallas on february 28 2026 82 83f	68	$193	149	165	-16	open	—	02-28 23:00
crint tha bhr 2026 02 27	53	$192	179	156	+23	open	—	02-27 08:34
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 3	57	$190	219	218	+1	open	—	03-03 15:50
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	90	$187	319	326	-7	open	—	03-09 10:49
bitcoin above 66k on march 5	63	$182	155	155	+0	open	—	03-03 16:45
will xrp reach 1pt5 february 23 march 1	37	$175	113	115	-2	open	—	03-01 05:37
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on march 1	61	$160	163	173	-10	open	—	03-01 13:57
will nvda dip to 164 in march	66	$159	340	372	-32	open	—	03-28 09:15
us forces seize another oil tanker by march 7	57	$155	172	167	+5	open	—	03-07 09:53
will the mongolz win blast open rotterdam 2026	320	$154	2,915	2,251	+664	open	—	03-27 11:32
ethereum above 2000 on february 28	44	$151	120	119	+1	open	—	02-28 14:44
bitcoin above 72k on march 6	77	$151	253	246	+7	open	—	03-05 23:09
bitcoin above 70k on march 4	44	$150	180	144	+36	open	—	03-04 15:00
cs2 navi b8 2026 03 18	44	$147	295	295	+0	open	—	03-18 15:41
ethereum above 2000 on march 3	36	$144	107	106	+1	open	—	03-01 01:31
will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	54	$143	157	150	+7	open	—	03-21 21:39
btc updown 4h 1772283600	43	$140	148	148	+0	open	—	02-28 16:03
will xrp dip to 1pt3 february 23 march 1	58	$139	225	213	+12	open	—	02-28 06:17
will team spirit win blast open rotterdam 2026	45	$137	146	140	+7	open	—	03-20 20:21
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 4	64	$135	284	295	-11	open	—	03-04 12:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 08:01:53	Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5)	Hamarkameratene	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0x33a843…
05-29 07:28:47	Blinkova vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Over 2.5	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x16afca…
05-02 17:55:42	arg cac boc 2026 03 08 spread away 1pt5	CA Boca Juniors	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x6ea3d1…
04-27 11:53:56	Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x800c78…
04-22 08:35:58	Will Strasbourg finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xf22330…
04-22 08:35:54	Will Strasbourg finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xdf9716…
04-22 05:06:20	Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x5dcd4e…
04-20 09:10:50	Will Guy Morgan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?	Yes	SELL	24	5¢	$1	0x036428…
04-18 22:15:42	Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x5f4c9d…
04-18 14:45:56	Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x4f4a63…
04-16 19:45:38	Will Darko Hrka record the most yellow cards in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x19a89b…
04-15 02:11:50	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x330caa…
04-14 20:38:44	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x2992b2…
04-14 16:05:05	kor uls seo 2026 03 07 spread away 2pt5	FC Seoul	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0x3449c9…
04-14 15:21:13	Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xd45b1c…
04-13 21:38:45	kor uls seo 2026 03 07 spread home 2pt5	Ulsan HD FC	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x3b8a86…
04-13 17:21:07	Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0xc7a49f…
04-13 17:03:45	Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0x4004ed…
04-13 07:28:05	Will Strasbourg finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$0	0xdcb346…
04-12 20:11:45	Will AZ Alkmaar win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	SELL	95	3¢	$3	0x41572b…
04-10 23:18:23	Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xdec7e8…
04-10 13:37:49	Will Santiago Gimenez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x62311c…
04-10 08:11:35	Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xb581df…
04-09 12:28:47	UEFA Europa League: Unbeaten Champion	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x45f935…
04-09 01:57:19	Will Arnetress Beatty be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?	Yes	SELL	72	1¢	$1	0xecba59…
04-08 02:22:11	Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x50d985…
04-08 00:49:15	Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x5e47e0…
04-08 00:38:35	Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x776e15…
04-07 22:30:29	Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x613ece…
04-06 20:53:43	Will AZ Alkmaar win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xca8e90…
04-06 12:04:09	Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xd632a0…
04-06 06:20:35	Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0xf0cb67…
04-06 01:13:27	Will AZ Alkmaar win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xb869cd…
04-05 19:12:35	Will Kathy Dolter be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?	Yes	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xbfc3c4…
04-05 10:25:49	Will Kristi Noem be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?	Yes	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x678fbd…
04-04 21:03:21	col1 cdt isf 2026 03 06 total 4pt5	Over	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x447a92…
04-04 20:58:17	Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x699bf2…
04-04 15:31:59	UEFA Europa League: Unbeaten Champion	Yes	SELL	3	83¢	$3	0xc114e4…
04-04 14:33:17	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x83a476…
04-03 13:05:47	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x7fa3e2…
04-03 07:01:09	will analilia mejia win the nj 11 special election	No	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0x72742f…
04-03 03:48:39	Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xa25992…
04-02 21:35:37	Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	218	1¢	$2	0x4ee07d…
04-02 15:46:33	Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xb722f0…
04-02 15:25:49	Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xd18893…
04-02 13:20:41	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x2675cf…
04-01 23:47:01	Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x148f12…
04-01 18:58:19	Will Fiorentina win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xc8b00a…
04-01 12:38:01	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xe24045…
04-01 12:30:47	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	1¢	$1	0x4c940f…
04-01 09:27:19	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$0	0xd151a7…
04-01 05:26:33	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xcdad24…
04-01 02:39:03	will president trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in march	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xdbb09b…
04-01 01:15:25	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x775d07…
03-31 21:37:15	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x52f89f…
03-31 21:30:09	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd31b70…
03-31 21:29:43	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xa496dc…
03-31 21:26:35	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xdabf2c…
03-31 21:23:49	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x52becc…
03-31 21:20:11	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x9120e1…
03-31 21:17:23	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xb868fe…
03-31 21:13:45	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x73162b…
03-31 21:10:35	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x69db0a…
03-31 21:07:25	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x324517…
03-31 21:04:35	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x25c305…
03-31 21:00:01	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x7113b9…
03-31 20:56:35	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x1d6dbd…
03-31 20:53:11	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xbdf8d3…
03-31 20:49:41	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xb3b016…
03-31 20:45:49	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x2736ab…
03-31 20:43:25	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xfeb8ad…
03-31 20:39:39	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x3cef87…
03-31 20:36:15	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xc2d850…
03-31 20:34:05	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x4a420f…
03-31 20:29:37	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd1cd1b…
03-31 20:25:29	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x33cdf4…
03-31 20:22:29	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x872d7b…
03-31 20:07:51	will amzn dip to 152 in march	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0x2c43ab…
03-31 20:04:15	will amzn reach 244 in march	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x1f185f…
03-31 17:44:45	Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x4dd108…
03-31 15:57:41	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xcd2e78…
03-31 15:42:09	will amzn dip to 168 in march	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x4abe83…
03-31 15:30:51	will amzn dip to 168 in march	Yes	SELL	219	0¢	$0	0x750b43…
03-31 12:53:57	Will Victor Hill be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x38cccf…
03-31 09:55:23	Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xc0b36f…
03-31 09:11:01	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb3ea01…
03-31 08:50:19	will the median home value in chicago be between 330000 and 333000 on april 1	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xf27db0…
03-31 07:49:11	will nvda dip to 136 in march	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x6df1a4…
03-31 05:33:03	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x3b21ad…
03-31 05:26:39	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xd4e579…
03-31 02:56:05	will nflx reach 298 in march	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xa42a89…
03-31 02:43:07	will the median home value in new york city be between 580000 and 585000 on april 1	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x18a326…
03-30 19:47:05	will nvda reach 200 in march	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xc3a055…
03-30 17:46:35	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x041dfd…
03-30 17:32:59	will nvda reach 216 in march	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xffa253…
03-30 17:29:37	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x804bc0…
03-30 16:39:41	will nflx reach 228 in march	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x2e62d9…
03-30 15:23:41	will googl reach 340 in march	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x86dccd…
03-30 15:13:45	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xda488f…
03-30 15:04:59	col1 cle cab 2026 03 14 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x273d02…