Arctic-Spleen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.95K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.41K

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

113

Trades

1,926

lifetime

Volume

$765.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$397

Open exposure

$3.09K

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 10-19 22:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

53% 66% +$1,278

Sports

23% 50% -$2,215

Politics

12% 43% -$1,280

Crypto

7% 8% -$2,883

Tech

5% 100% +$148

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	+5,352	$370	52¢	$2.8K	+$2,413	10-19 22:49
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+1,296	$453	24¢	$305	-$149	10-12 15:38
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	-$38	98¢	$0	+$39	06-01 16:48
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	+0	-$104	46¢	$0	+$104	05-22 21:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	30	$79.4K	39,782	39,782	+0	No	+$25	06-17 23:33
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	3	$78.8K	39,519	39,519	+0	Yes	-$19	05-23 14:49
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	74	$58.4K	32,372	32,372	+0	Yes	-$1,634	06-08 18:26
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 26?	20	$53.7K	27,000	27,000	+0	No	+$243	05-27 02:20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$44.2K	62,240	0	+62,240	No	+$8	05-26 13:00
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians	133	$41.8K	21,858	21,858	+0	Washington Nationals	+$256	05-25 23:46
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$40.0K	20,060	20,060	+0	No	+$0	06-14 10:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?	13	$37.9K	19,150	19,150	+0	No	+$326	05-26 15:51
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	26	$36.9K	18,632	18,632	+0	Yes	+$99	05-29 17:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	10	$20.2K	10,803	10,803	+0	Yes	+$155	05-23 00:53
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka	12	$19.9K	10,475	10,475	+0	Naomi Osaka	+$843	05-26 14:51
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants	10	$19.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	Arizona Diamondbacks	+$208	05-25 23:34
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	65	$16.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$3,590	06-15 18:13
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$14.4K	7,243	7,243	+0	No	+$7	05-22 13:18
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	8	$14.3K	7,368	7,368	+0	Under	+$332	06-23 00:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$11.3K	5,697	5,697	+0	No	+$6	05-31 18:28
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	19	$10.5K	5,532	5,532	+0	Yes	+$55	05-21 20:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	15	$10.1K	10,417	10,417	+0	open	—	05-22 21:12
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik	16	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	Alexander Bublik	+$45	05-21 20:21
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	3	$9.9K	5,038	5,038	+0	Victoria Mboko	+$156	05-21 17:57
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien	10	$9.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	Learner Tien	+$50	05-21 18:03
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21?	3	$9.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$145	05-21 20:56
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	4	$9.2K	4,646	4,646	+0	No	+$14	05-21 11:03
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 5pt5	3	$8.4K	4,545	4,545	+0	Under	+$432	06-22 22:01
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	2	$7.3K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$80	05-21 19:07
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	16	$6.8K	113,349	3,349	+110,000	Jannik Sinner	-$110	05-26 22:43
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5)	2	$5.9K	3,100	3,099	+1	Sandefjord Fotball	+$248	05-25 18:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	12	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$3	05-21 16:14
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$5.7K	2,910	2,910	+0	No	-$37	06-26 19:33
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets	3	$4.9K	2,442	2,442	+0	Cincinnati Reds	+$0	05-25 23:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 22:49:06	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5,352	7¢	$370	0x45afab…
10-19 22:48:06	Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	900	54¢	$482	0xc05801…
10-12 15:40:20	Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	900	37¢	$335	0xcde891…
10-12 15:38:29	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	702	44¢	$306	0xacc501…
06-26 19:33:49	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xf2a43d…
06-26 19:33:49	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xc2fa47…
06-26 19:33:49	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x6d10ad…
06-25 23:59:50	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x54c33e…
06-24 23:02:44	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x577f7f…
06-24 23:02:44	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x364690…
06-24 21:44:44	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x44178e…
06-24 20:30:37	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2,772	98¢	$2,711	0xae31b7…
06-23 00:11:26	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	178,058	0¢	$356	0xb38f69…
06-23 00:11:26	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	79	0¢	$0	0x75acc6…
06-23 00:11:20	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfab03c…
06-23 00:11:17	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$2	0x2aed46…
06-23 00:11:11	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xc12ce8…
06-23 00:11:11	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xb2a632…
06-23 00:11:07	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	7,161	0¢	$14	0xc5a16c…
06-23 00:11:04	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	727	0¢	$1	0x105e34…
06-23 00:11:01	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	251	0¢	$1	0xfb4a32…
06-23 00:11:01	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xa7b56f…
06-23 00:10:59	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	253	0¢	$1	0x860ac4…
06-23 00:10:59	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	4,028	0¢	$8	0x01fd81…
06-23 00:10:58	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x1dbecc…
06-23 00:10:47	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	64	0¢	$0	0xe0e415…
06-23 00:10:47	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	167	0¢	$0	0xaa46be…
06-23 00:10:41	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	167	0¢	$0	0xc7cee6…
06-23 00:10:41	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0808e4…
06-23 00:10:40	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	847	0¢	$2	0xe2b518…
06-23 00:10:38	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	407	0¢	$1	0x34044b…
06-23 00:10:37	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0xa3c91e…
06-23 00:10:34	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0xe10d91…
06-23 00:10:34	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	192	0¢	$0	0xd7ae7f…
06-23 00:10:34	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	111	0¢	$0	0x9a76e3…
06-23 00:10:31	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x0c6446…
06-23 00:10:29	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	43	0¢	$0	0x66cbdb…
06-23 00:10:28	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	535	0¢	$1	0xb3ef71…
06-23 00:10:14	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	455	0¢	$1	0x521ee7…
06-23 00:09:58	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	1,100	0¢	$2	0x43de38…
06-23 00:09:49	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	1,150	0¢	$2	0xe24e21…
06-23 00:07:14	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	4,097	100¢	$4,077	0x86f664…
06-22 23:54:04	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	808	100¢	$804	0xaa8e5e…
06-22 22:37:47	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4ff3ec…
06-22 22:18:10	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3e3421…
06-22 22:12:55	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xcf99dc…
06-22 22:03:26	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0x70ae45…
06-22 22:02:41	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	2,368	99¢	$2,356	0x64ffdc…
06-22 22:01:13	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	926	98¢	$902	0x8a49c7…
06-22 21:58:14	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0x90caf3…
06-22 21:58:08	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	3,620	98¢	$3,529	0x2a6c39…
06-22 21:31:46	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3,846	26¢	$1,000	0x58b6c0…
06-22 21:29:56	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	7,884	6¢	$500	0xf7bfca…
06-22 21:29:17	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	4,545	88¢	$4,000	0x449d33…
06-22 21:28:52	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	7,368	95¢	$7,000	0xbc8f1a…
06-22 21:01:56	Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500,000	0¢	$1,000	0xe2b392…
06-22 21:00:20	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	No	BUY	10,344	10¢	$1,000	0x771599…
06-17 23:33:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	10,439	100¢	$10,418	0xe67fae…
06-17 21:09:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x18f9e6…
06-17 21:08:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe48d4c…
06-17 21:08:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x7fae79…
06-17 21:08:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x77c6fe…
06-17 21:08:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8d07bd…
06-17 21:08:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x048234…
06-17 21:08:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xdffb42…
06-17 21:08:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x95d141…
06-17 21:08:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbd22b2…
06-17 21:08:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5e2ca9…
06-17 21:08:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9cee7b…
06-17 21:08:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8e4440…
06-17 21:08:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb2300a…
06-17 21:08:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x485a53…
06-17 21:08:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5d22dd…
06-17 21:07:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x33734d…
06-17 21:07:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x134a4f…
06-17 21:07:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb2baaf…
06-17 21:07:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x09645a…
06-17 21:07:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1b3c07…
06-17 19:28:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	1,500	100¢	$1,497	0x17d73b…
06-17 19:17:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x56d14c…
06-17 18:31:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	291	100¢	$290	0xc6d65b…
06-17 18:30:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	291	100¢	$290	0x8a2cd3…
06-17 18:30:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	291	100¢	$290	0xfdbbaa…
06-17 18:29:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5363d1…
06-17 17:47:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	21,714	100¢	$21,670	0x89b9b7…
06-16 21:03:22	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	167	9¢	$15	0x528410…
06-15 23:14:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,975	0x520079…
06-15 19:26:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	39,782	100¢	$39,663	0x5d6443…
06-15 19:21:45	Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,500	99¢	$3,458	0x32bdc4…
06-15 18:13:03	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x0a2b8c…
06-15 17:48:00	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xd9eee2…
06-15 17:48:00	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x72631d…
06-15 17:48:00	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	630	64¢	$403	0x3dc8cb…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	42	64¢	$27	0xeaf9b3…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0xd148bc…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	135	64¢	$86	0xa25cce…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x873d66…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x855e47…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	118	64¢	$76	0x4f02ea…
06-15 17:47:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x0b76a3…