Fair-Hurricane — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved (90d)

591

Trades (90d)

839

5,995 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.00K

$18.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 02:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 92% +$43

Other

6% 94% -$16

Politics

1% 90% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$65	71	0	+71	No	+$6	03-10 06:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$63	70	0	+70	No	+$7	03-23 00:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 03:00 UTC	3	$55	59	0	+59	Down	-$2	03-23 03:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 04:15 UTC	4	$46	51	0	+51	Down	-$1	03-16 04:28
highest temperature in shanghai on march 24 2026 14c	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-24 05:49
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 5?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	08-05 03:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 08:30 UTC	3	$40	42	0	+42	Up	-$4	03-17 08:43
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 30?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	10-30 02:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 24?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-24 06:54
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 12?	3	$30	27	6	+21	Yes	-$21	10-12 01:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 08:00 UTC	4	$30	36	0	+36	Down	+$0	03-17 08:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$30	32	0	+32	Yes	+$2	10-28 08:22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on August 2?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	08-02 03:16
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 20?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	10-20 01:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	07-30 15:23
highest temperature in shanghai on march 24 2026 16c	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-24 03:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 05:15 UTC	2	$24	27	0	+27	Down	-$3	02-07 05:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 12:30 UTC	3	$24	27	0	+27	Down	-$2	08-06 12:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 02:15 UTC	3	$23	33	0	+33	Up	-$17	02-08 02:30
highest temperature in shanghai on march 24 2026 15c	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-24 07:49
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	03-13 07:49
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on October 5?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-04 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 26?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-26 02:48
highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 10c	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	03-19 01:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-28 08:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$19	20	0	+20	Yes	-$19	04-06 09:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 12:15 UTC	3	$17	18	0	+18	Down	+$1	02-05 12:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 04:15 UTC	2	$16	18	0	+18	Down	-$4	02-07 04:28
highest temperature in shanghai on march 26 2026 18c	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	03-26 06:19
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 5?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	10-04 00:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 02:02:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x5a6063…
10-28 08:22:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd50fac…
10-28 08:22:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xabd8bb…
10-28 08:21:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf5ef52…
10-27 13:20:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2f3608…
10-26 02:48:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8f3361…
10-20 01:22:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8e5f59…
10-19 04:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x958224…
10-19 03:43:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x5ec471…
10-19 01:55:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe98335…
10-19 01:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x129066…
10-19 01:01:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x96d8cd…
10-19 01:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6ceaf3…
10-18 08:03:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xab38db…
10-18 07:28:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x76a643…
10-18 03:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xeb174a…
10-17 19:04:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xc6dcd0…
10-17 15:29:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x2f3c41…
10-17 09:49:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x5dd40d…
10-17 09:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x58b1c3…
10-17 06:44:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 06:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x0987c4…
10-17 04:34:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xf52f90…
10-17 02:49:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x295b7a…
10-17 02:13:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x03e2b1…
10-17 02:09:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xafbe2c…
10-17 00:19:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x01283e…
10-16 20:58:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x4233b4…
10-16 12:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 17?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x514edd…
10-16 12:03:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1477d9…
10-16 12:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9e02ef…
10-16 07:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xedfd22…
10-16 05:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xa05826…
10-16 03:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xecb001…
10-15 20:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x1ad17d…
10-15 18:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x211ed1…
10-15 14:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9a8fd3…
10-15 12:54:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 16?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xd97db2…
10-15 12:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe364aa…
10-14 12:54:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x6306eb…
10-14 12:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 15?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb855a9…
10-14 12:01:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x759c55…
10-14 09:19:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x6f32be…
10-14 07:03:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x25b873…
10-14 06:24:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5d3093…
10-14 03:28:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x67725e…
10-14 00:43:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 00:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x9a4cd9…
10-13 22:59:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x818d04…
10-13 14:19:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x0238c5…
10-13 13:59:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xbec0b9…
10-13 12:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 14?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x328791…
10-13 12:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0bcc94…
10-13 12:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0b81da…
10-13 09:34:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xca8f07…
10-13 05:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5ecf89…
10-13 04:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xc75e86…
10-12 23:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xc25374…
10-12 23:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xe44864…
10-12 22:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xb9fe23…
10-12 20:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x13ed59…
10-12 16:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x8ac91e…
10-12 13:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x97fdbf…
10-12 01:22:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 12?	No	SELL	6	76¢	$5	0x0ced3a…
10-12 00:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xf11a07…
10-12 00:47:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdf91c0…
10-11 18:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xa6ad9e…
10-11 16:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x35d0a1…
10-11 16:03:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x28ff87…
10-11 16:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 12?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x3f5aa8…
10-11 15:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdd975d…
10-11 12:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xe6528e…
10-11 11:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xbb6e25…
10-11 10:29:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 12?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xe9c7f0…
10-11 07:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd4c4cf…
10-11 07:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc7ee98…
10-10 22:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xa5f5f5…
10-10 21:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x2b9a7e…
10-10 20:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x2ef0b2…
10-10 16:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on October 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x65ca73…
10-10 15:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa75881…
10-10 11:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x118f44…
10-10 09:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x507386…
10-10 08:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x652836…
10-10 08:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x6b84ed…
10-10 07:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x37236e…
10-10 06:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x37c1d6…
10-10 04:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x4082cf…
10-10 00:51:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 11?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5c9a84…
10-10 00:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x60bd22…
10-10 00:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x49968f…
10-09 23:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xec6f2d…
10-09 22:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x2b4bb6…
10-09 20:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x3a9cfe…
10-09 17:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x8aedce…
10-09 17:19:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa2be6a…
10-09 16:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xb5be50…
10-09 12:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xdac6c7…
10-09 09:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xd9ca8d…
10-09 08:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x752cac…
10-09 07:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xdb21f0…
10-09 06:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc1a2e0…