Medium-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$505

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

33.3%

Resolved

428

Trades

1,226

lifetime

Volume

$45.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$161

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 11-03 11:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Other

48% 34% -$35

Sports

28% 34% +$179

Politics

20% 25% -$637

Crypto

4% 28% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+90	$83	96¢	$86	+$3	09-15 17:56
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+30	$26	97¢	$29	+$3	06-09 01:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$26	24¢	$24	-$1	11-03 11:16
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+50	$15	11¢	$5	-$9	10-25 16:20
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+100	$7	5¢	$5	-$2	10-24 23:19
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	+101	$5	4¢	$4	-$1	09-20 19:58
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+100	$5	4¢	$4	-$1	10-28 00:07
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+11	$16	30¢	$3	-$12	11-01 22:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	2	$4.0K	2,759	2,759	+0	No	+$0	05-19 18:08
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	2	$3.9K	4,944	4,944	+0	No	-$35	05-19 12:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$3.4K	2,210	2,210	+0	open	—	05-11 07:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$3.4K	2,332	2,332	+0	No	-$128	05-24 22:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,539	1,539	+0	No	-$504	05-25 19:38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	35	$1.5K	950	796	+154	Yes	-$48	10-27 22:39
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	26	$1.3K	1,320	0	+1,320	Yes	+$50	05-16 01:11
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	16	$993	978	354	+624	Yes	+$114	04-24 19:01
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	20	$818	1,402	2	+1,400	Yes	-$1	05-19 19:09
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	22	$791	1,319	0	+1,319	No	-$62	05-13 19:38
nba okc den 2026 04 10	11	$637	943	2	+941	Nuggets	+$306	04-10 23:20
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	18	$595	440	390	+50	No	-$40	10-28 08:29
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	5	$400	453	0	+453	No	+$53	04-25 20:02
cs2 fokus bcg 2026 04 07	5	$393	521	512	+10	FOKUS	-$14	04-07 11:07
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	20	$379	461	450	+11	open	—	11-01 22:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	26	$351	445	350	+95	Yes	+$34	10-30 22:56
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	9	$339	223	173	+50	No	+$18	10-25 08:10
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	11	$337	558	0	+558	No	+$19	05-19 15:39
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	7	$330	364	0	+364	No	+$34	05-02 01:21
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	7	$327	530	0	+530	Yes	-$159	05-19 03:19
cs2 ast10 b8 2026 04 05	7	$323	308	358	-50	Astralis	+$17	04-05 10:26
lol c9 ly 2026 04 04	32	$291	94	477	-384	Cloud9	+$34	04-04 22:29
cs2 b8 ice 2026 04 07	3	$291	728	0	+728	B8	-$86	04-07 09:47
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans	8	$287	658	0	+658	Gujarat Titans	+$66	05-09 17:14
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	19	$287	864	0	+864	Delhi Capitals	+$119	05-11 17:46
cs2 mglz prv 2026 04 09	6	$286	310	204	+106	TheMongolz	-$58	04-09 18:59
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	6	$265	304	0	+304	No	+$38	05-19 21:08
cs2 fokus wc1 2026 04 06	3	$254	204	101	+103	Wildcard	-$73	04-06 07:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	10	$247	219	216	+3	No	-$12	10-20 07:11
dota2 gl ts8 2026 04 09	7	$239	417	102	+315	GamerLegion	+$80	04-09 11:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 11:16:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x158214…
11-02 18:37:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x2c040a…
11-01 22:58:31	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x6ea534…
11-01 19:35:07	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x6ea15b…
11-01 16:46:33	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xa31f03…
10-31 05:57:01	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x17e973…
10-30 22:56:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd999a6…
10-30 22:23:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x2cadea…
10-30 22:22:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x6b7238…
10-30 22:19:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x1d98c4…
10-30 21:47:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x551704…
10-30 21:30:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	56	60¢	$34	0x2e1714…
10-30 20:10:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xb8a908…
10-30 19:14:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x937c59…
10-30 17:46:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x765eec…
10-30 16:58:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	59	87¢	$52	0xc334f3…
10-30 16:35:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	56	47¢	$26	0xb55045…
10-30 16:05:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	59	42¢	$25	0xd28189…
10-30 13:47:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7001cd…
10-29 16:36:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x2d82c1…
10-29 16:32:47	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0xd3ba18…
10-28 11:16:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x651c61…
10-28 10:30:38	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	43	5¢	$2	0x6e27d3…
10-28 08:29:16	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xf30e70…
10-28 00:07:23	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xeece2b…
10-27 22:39:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x9ab0fa…
10-27 19:19:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x1bb94c…
10-27 19:19:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xd193fa…
10-27 19:18:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xb87b0f…
10-27 19:17:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x04583e…
10-27 18:57:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x949d91…
10-27 16:04:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x86dab8…
10-27 07:42:11	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x296e73…
10-27 06:41:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x92774d…
10-27 05:10:02	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x02f8a3…
10-26 10:58:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x952764…
10-26 10:58:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x79a5b6…
10-26 10:57:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x1ef5fc…
10-26 10:34:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x58d794…
10-26 10:28:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x98fd56…
10-26 02:20:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0x704520…
10-26 00:20:05	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xdd34b4…
10-25 21:00:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xe7d11f…
10-25 20:57:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x1af760…
10-25 20:55:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xdb3b56…
10-25 20:54:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa00abe…
10-25 20:53:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x04943b…
10-25 20:52:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xfbcddb…
10-25 20:51:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xaaf925…
10-25 20:50:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x4c155c…
10-25 20:49:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xca2fd5…
10-25 20:48:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x4db84f…
10-25 20:47:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xcdd1a4…
10-25 20:46:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xe78c68…
10-25 20:45:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x11eabf…
10-25 20:43:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x0ddb01…
10-25 20:38:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xd46914…
10-25 19:56:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0xa788ed…
10-25 18:21:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x20c905…
10-25 17:46:08	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x19da25…
10-25 17:07:33	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xa0871f…
10-25 16:23:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x606834…
10-25 16:20:12	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xfbb3ea…
10-25 11:10:00	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	83¢	$41	0x84e699…
10-25 11:01:42	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xe38ee0…
10-25 10:56:08	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x4e78a3…
10-25 10:47:42	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x4285c0…
10-25 08:51:50	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$45	0xca1bce…
10-25 08:10:56	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x0b1879…
10-25 07:30:59	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xa6dfac…
10-25 03:22:17	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x983949…
10-25 01:12:38	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xee5703…
10-24 23:19:33	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x958656…
10-24 22:46:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x49ee91…
10-24 22:36:20	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x48fd82…
10-24 11:58:18	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$35	0x75583d…
10-24 11:40:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x2c3fe7…
10-24 11:19:59	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0x45d382…
10-24 10:25:33	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x21c95f…
10-24 09:59:02	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xa251a1…
10-24 04:50:14	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x8d0b98…
10-24 04:07:32	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xc8b367…
10-24 01:48:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x94a491…
10-23 22:48:57	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x0c3459…
10-23 19:44:44	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xc688cc…
10-23 19:34:29	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x6f9ec3…
10-23 14:24:18	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xfd04c6…
10-23 13:16:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x773d54…
10-23 11:30:39	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x7e5060…
10-23 08:18:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0x784ef8…
10-23 05:16:42	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	26	15¢	$4	0xfb72f6…
10-23 04:08:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x4537b7…
10-23 04:03:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x9a8070…
10-22 10:01:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xdbcd36…
10-22 09:42:09	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x5c9a1e…
10-22 08:21:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xe89669…
10-22 03:09:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	29	23¢	$7	0x2d6c28…
10-22 02:20:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x01755d…
10-21 21:25:32	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	36	18¢	$6	0x128fdd…
10-21 19:22:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x85d20e…