Late-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$784

Unrealized P&L

+$494

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,955

lifetime

Volume

$4.08M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$685

Open exposure

$43.3K

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 07-01 14:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% 100% +$764

Other

24% 100% +$20

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 184 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	-33,702	$-32,906	100¢	$-33618	$-712	06-24 17:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+9,666	$7,156	86¢	$8.4K	+$1,205	06-11 14:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+5,000	$1,274	26¢	$1.3K	+$1	06-25 14:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	253	$433.8K	264,836	308,939	-44,102	open	—	04-08 20:29
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	229	$334.2K	193,834	152,427	+41,407	open	—	03-04 16:40
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	48	$306.0K	207,256	118,497	+88,759	open	—	03-31 10:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	153	$231.6K	161,693	119,230	+42,463	open	—	03-01 13:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	231	$231.6K	188,975	197,731	-8,756	open	—	04-01 15:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	64	$205.3K	179,902	34,000	+145,902	open	—	04-10 18:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	81	$189.0K	202,057	32,057	+170,000	open	—	06-03 22:43
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	20	$170.7K	171,981	1,229	+170,752	open	—	04-30 21:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	160	$170.0K	232,349	189,884	+42,466	open	—	06-17 20:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	82	$109.7K	91,680	90,964	+716	open	—	04-29 18:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	211	$98.2K	233,985	174,895	+59,089	open	—	05-29 17:13
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	129	$96.1K	93,436	89,295	+4,141	open	—	03-27 22:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	84	$87.9K	45,960	64,000	-18,040	open	—	06-24 17:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	263	$86.7K	107,706	105,470	+2,236	open	—	06-15 08:13
netanyahu out by march 31 854	43	$67.9K	29,789	40,000	-10,211	open	—	03-26 16:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	193	$63.8K	102,524	112,047	-9,523	open	—	02-27 20:25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	40	$61.0K	47,933	43,933	+4,000	open	—	03-13 14:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	104	$49.7K	27,000	27,000	+0	open	—	04-12 19:22
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	5	$47.9K	25,000	25,000	+0	open	—	03-26 16:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	62	$47.7K	33,000	29,876	+3,124	open	—	04-17 08:50
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	50	$43.5K	45,331	0	+45,331	open	—	03-04 16:23
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	161	$39.2K	42,390	42,390	+0	open	—	04-06 15:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	257	$37.9K	90,091	91,802	-1,711	open	—	04-25 05:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	61	$36.3K	35,843	41,820	-5,977	open	—	06-19 17:20
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	16	$29.5K	22,724	14,457	+8,267	open	—	04-05 14:45
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	42	$29.5K	19,935	9,935	+10,000	open	—	04-12 22:30
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	16	$27.6K	15,103	15,103	+0	open	—	02-19 15:18
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	52	$24.9K	15,383	16,110	-727	open	—	03-25 16:04
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	47	$24.2K	27,954	20,024	+7,930	open	—	02-27 19:08
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	102	$23.5K	12,621	15,000	-2,379	open	—	04-12 18:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 14:05:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	13,630	0¢	$27	0xec2bc1…
06-28 05:29:34	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,830	90¢	$2,547	0xba6116…
06-28 04:47:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xf18c1d…
06-27 12:55:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x75973a…
06-27 12:55:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	316	37¢	$117	0x08301e…
06-27 12:52:40	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x02c1de…
06-27 12:42:31	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x431649…
06-27 12:42:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	37¢	$370	0x2eab22…
06-27 12:41:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0xdbf052…
06-27 12:40:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x9fff72…
06-27 12:38:58	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x37f423…
06-27 12:38:17	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc2effe…
06-27 12:36:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	277	37¢	$103	0xe3d45c…
06-27 12:15:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc57b27…
06-27 12:08:56	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x811741…
06-27 12:07:20	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	361	37¢	$133	0x9945b7…
06-27 12:06:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	544	37¢	$201	0x6b5903…
06-27 12:02:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0xfdbea3…
06-27 11:59:14	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	411	37¢	$152	0xdabb20…
06-27 08:39:17	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	41¢	$410	0x261eb3…
06-27 08:09:22	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	357	43¢	$154	0x21869d…
06-27 07:13:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	263	43¢	$113	0x933a6b…
06-27 06:27:14	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	77	43¢	$33	0x14efcb…
06-27 06:22:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	44	43¢	$19	0x060a79…
06-27 06:15:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	222	43¢	$96	0xafa34d…
06-27 05:49:10	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0xd6f2b8…
06-27 02:35:49	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xf27716…
06-27 02:09:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xa4b140…
06-26 22:57:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	215	44¢	$95	0x553494…
06-26 22:54:05	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	392	44¢	$172	0x1d84c4…
06-26 22:41:19	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	104	44¢	$46	0x107fdd…
06-26 22:31:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0xbb95be…
06-26 22:31:07	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xe55339…
06-26 22:30:28	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	171	44¢	$75	0xda82cb…
06-26 22:30:23	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,089	44¢	$479	0x42104f…
06-26 20:46:37	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3,000	51¢	$1,530	0x951e99…
06-26 20:41:52	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x939dff…
06-26 20:41:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	610	52¢	$317	0xbeb18c…
06-26 20:35:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	1,899	29¢	$551	0xa1343e…
06-26 13:26:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xb29565…
06-26 13:26:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x748814…
06-26 13:26:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x2a786f…
06-26 11:03:53	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3,100	62¢	$1,922	0x5f81a4…
06-26 05:12:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	2,646	38¢	$1,006	0x45733f…
06-26 05:11:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xd34335…
06-26 05:11:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0x6293a5…
06-26 05:11:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0xdc7364…
06-26 05:11:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x788a4d…
06-26 05:11:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x3db420…
06-26 05:11:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x1afcf2…
06-26 05:11:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0xe92564…
06-26 05:11:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xa24145…
06-26 05:11:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x22aad5…
06-26 05:11:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	63	38¢	$24	0x164a05…
06-25 22:43:17	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	764	54¢	$413	0x92baa5…
06-25 22:43:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc06ba1…
06-25 22:36:10	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xd6701c…
06-25 22:32:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x132472…
06-25 22:31:41	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	800	54¢	$432	0x469653…
06-25 22:31:04	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,087	54¢	$587	0x3dea42…
06-25 22:30:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xb5f64b…
06-25 22:29:05	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xe5c063…
06-25 22:28:53	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	110	54¢	$59	0x56c6d8…
06-25 18:37:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x20b60a…
06-25 18:33:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x706803…
06-25 18:33:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	22	32¢	$7	0x9e1b05…
06-25 18:32:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	2,025	32¢	$648	0xeb080a…
06-25 18:00:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	5,886	33¢	$1,942	0xbddf66…
06-25 17:57:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0xa8d658…
06-25 17:49:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$1	0x248aa6…
06-25 15:53:52	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,786	45¢	$804	0x9fa7f8…
06-25 15:46:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	214	45¢	$96	0xef5e5f…
06-25 15:28:35	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	708	46¢	$326	0xc2111e…
06-25 15:28:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	292	46¢	$134	0xb0e217…
06-25 15:19:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	307	51¢	$157	0xcab7c5…
06-25 15:10:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	4,148	38¢	$1,576	0xa59136…
06-25 14:14:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	303	69¢	$209	0x913e98…
06-25 14:07:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x4c9ad1…
06-25 14:07:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	51	69¢	$35	0xdd1dad…
06-25 14:06:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	620	70¢	$434	0xfc7e5b…
06-25 12:47:38	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x8e8b2e…
06-25 12:47:28	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0xe96c7e…
06-25 12:46:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	123	35¢	$43	0x89927e…
06-25 12:43:23	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	460	35¢	$161	0x348b8c…
06-25 12:28:19	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	55	35¢	$19	0xa473b6…
06-25 12:21:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0x6308fc…
06-25 12:19:28	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	381	35¢	$133	0xc082e4…
06-25 10:39:34	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4,214	35¢	$1,475	0xe50238…
06-25 10:39:34	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0xcd3cc3…
06-24 18:47:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	447	26¢	$116	0x18330d…
06-24 18:46:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,464	26¢	$381	0x468e7f…
06-24 18:45:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,411	47¢	$663	0x8a795e…
06-24 18:31:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x32e662…
06-24 18:23:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	30	47¢	$14	0xf0510e…
06-24 18:06:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0xe211d7…
06-24 18:06:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5,701	28¢	$1,596	0x1e19b2…
06-24 18:00:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	47¢	$1,410	0x622d29…
06-24 17:53:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	218	96¢	$209	0x941090…
06-24 17:51:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	47¢	$94	0x5edd4d…
06-24 17:47:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x60b3a4…