Wilted-Surrounds — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$95

Unrealized P&L

+$43

Hit rate

75.4%

Resolved

Trades

216

lifetime

Volume

$7.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-28

last 05-18 13:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Politics

60% 72% +$126

Other

40% 80% -$31

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-18).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-124	-$50	6¢	$-7	+$43	05-01 02:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	7	$531	270	270	+0	No	+$8	03-31 13:52
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	5	$295	167	167	+0	No	-$11	04-16 01:30
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$271	200	200	+0	No	+$91	05-15 22:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$265	196	196	+0	No	-$53	04-17 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$241	138	138	+0	No	-$1	05-18 13:28
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	3	$217	110	110	+0	No	+$2	03-31 15:14
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	4	$213	135	135	+0	No	+$11	05-01 02:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$204	123	123	+0	No	+$14	04-27 15:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$204	111	111	+0	No	+$16	05-15 08:42
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on april 3	2	$187	99	99	+0	Yes	+$8	04-04 07:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$178	94	94	+0	No	+$8	05-14 11:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	3	$174	47	166	-119	No	-$26	05-18 13:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	4	$171	94	94	+0	No	+$1	05-18 13:28
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$169	115	115	+0	No	+$29	05-15 22:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$154	79	79	+0	No	+$4	05-05 00:43
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$152	99	99	+0	No	+$12	05-15 22:49
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	3	$148	78	78	+0	Yes	+$7	05-11 15:36
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	8	$127	165	165	+0	Yes	-$7	05-11 15:36
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$126	71	71	+0	No	+$6	05-18 13:28
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	2	$117	67	67	+0	No	-$1	05-18 13:28
will iran strike pakistan in march	2	$116	59	59	+0	No	+$0	03-31 15:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$114	60	60	+0	No	+$3	04-08 00:35
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$102	52	52	+0	No	+$2	04-14 00:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$102	53	53	+0	No	+$2	05-18 12:22
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$84	44	44	+0	No	+$4	04-16 01:30
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$84	45	45	+0	No	+$4	05-18 13:28
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$83	54	54	+0	No	-$1	04-06 04:53
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$81	45	45	+0	No	+$1	05-18 13:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$79	42	42	+0	No	+$4	05-01 02:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$79	41	41	+0	Yes	+$2	04-04 15:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 13:28:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	138	87¢	$120	0xa12e41…
05-18 13:28:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	92¢	$86	0x9da13e…
05-18 13:28:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	71	93¢	$66	0x432d8b…
05-18 13:28:26	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	No	SELL	67	86¢	$58	0x6aa704…
05-18 13:28:07	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$44	0x614ce9…
05-18 13:28:02	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0x182f50…
05-18 13:27:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	81¢	$39	0x98b0cd…
05-18 13:27:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	81¢	$38	0x6a965c…
05-18 13:27:41	Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x6ade99…
05-18 13:27:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0xeb0b32…
05-18 13:27:30	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x2b9ac4…
05-18 13:27:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x17bf9b…
05-18 13:27:15	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$21	0x716cac…
05-18 13:27:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	24	78¢	$19	0x50d35d…
05-18 13:27:06	Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcbb717…
05-18 12:22:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x3095a2…
05-17 12:45:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0xc256ea…
05-17 12:33:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	35	88¢	$31	0xb6c4c8…
05-16 08:39:55	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	No	BUY	67	88¢	$59	0x692308…
05-16 08:38:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x082905…
05-16 08:34:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x91e2cc…
05-16 08:33:32	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xb74e60…
05-16 08:31:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x405b94…
05-16 08:30:25	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x156dd8…
05-16 08:29:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0xd7d7e4…
05-16 08:28:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x020ed4…
05-15 22:49:39	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	131	97¢	$127	0xffc1e0…
05-15 22:49:30	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xd772f5…
05-15 22:49:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x87ec33…
05-15 10:18:36	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb8d49e…
05-15 10:17:10	Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc1dbfd…
05-15 10:02:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	82	24¢	$20	0x294a1b…
05-15 09:40:39	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xea51db…
05-15 09:40:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xa98759…
05-15 09:40:25	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0xc79b73…
05-15 09:39:07	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xf1ace0…
05-15 09:39:01	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0xa44ac8…
05-15 09:38:58	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	18	79¢	$14	0x362073…
05-15 09:38:12	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x7e5b59…
05-15 09:37:50	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	57	78¢	$44	0xdde298…
05-15 09:37:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	51	78¢	$40	0xd6f849…
05-15 09:37:27	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	53	77¢	$41	0xffdb97…
05-15 08:43:35	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	56	88¢	$49	0x279024…
05-15 08:43:14	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x88b520…
05-15 08:43:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x1b7296…
05-15 08:42:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x342cce…
05-15 08:41:55	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xea0294…
05-15 08:25:56	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0xfd5e18…
05-15 08:25:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x744a65…
05-15 08:25:37	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x1c8f3a…
05-15 08:24:34	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x812536…
05-15 08:24:25	Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0be1a7…
05-15 08:24:21	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x96cd69…
05-14 12:20:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x9099fc…
05-14 12:20:09	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x19898c…
05-14 12:18:08	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xe378d8…
05-14 12:17:56	Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x684a51…
05-14 11:52:51	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x851e6e…
05-14 11:49:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x8cc351…
05-13 05:32:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xb4b75f…
05-13 01:19:50	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	SELL	53	45¢	$24	0x585881…
05-12 00:26:49	Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8a69f7…
05-11 15:57:11	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0xb40180…
05-11 15:55:00	Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x328655…
05-11 15:51:48	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x921793…
05-11 15:50:52	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x820bb9…
05-11 15:41:35	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x443d0c…
05-11 15:37:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0xfa4272…
05-11 15:36:36	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xac3547…
05-11 15:36:17	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x417443…
05-11 15:35:59	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xbed2aa…
05-09 13:14:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0x6747d5…
05-09 13:13:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xe212a0…
05-06 13:16:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0xb8988b…
05-06 13:15:48	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x592606…
05-06 00:55:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xd56285…
05-05 01:16:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0xcc7e19…
05-05 01:14:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x95e3e3…
05-05 00:43:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0xac9895…
05-03 02:39:12	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x98c033…
05-03 02:39:06	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x580a3b…
05-03 02:29:50	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x154617…
05-03 02:20:54	Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xb4bc51…
05-01 06:59:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0x5a5dd1…
05-01 06:58:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xe0377d…
05-01 06:57:18	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x2b928c…
05-01 06:56:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x8aaf0e…
05-01 06:55:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x164b72…
05-01 06:53:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xb6b4af…
05-01 06:53:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xb42b2d…
05-01 06:51:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x84c433…
05-01 06:50:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x657499…
05-01 02:46:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	40¢	$50	0x9f014c…
05-01 02:46:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	119	80¢	$96	0xd5dd24…
05-01 02:15:48	Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0xfae066…
05-01 02:15:38	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xcdbfc2…
05-01 02:15:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x430c37…
05-01 02:15:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x3a9583…
05-01 02:15:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x7afe50…
05-01 02:15:02	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xb97110…