Defiant-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,540

lifetime

Volume

$14.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-26 21:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 0% $-2

Other

32% — —

Politics

14% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 293 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$673	700	0	+700	open	—	04-07 10:01
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$596	300	300	+0	open	—	02-28 07:11
fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 total 0pt5	3	$426	300	200	+100	open	—	06-19 02:09
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	3	$334	600	400	+200	open	—	07-11 06:04
will bitcoin dip to 65k in july 2026 from july 20	3	$312	192	152	+40	open	—	07-23 07:51
will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	3	$293	200	200	+0	open	—	07-21 07:55
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	16	$289	4,096	3,345	+751	open	—	01-29 06:11
btc updown 5m 1783573800	19	$289	700	0	+700	open	—	07-09 05:14
will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	26	$278	2,912	2,912	+0	open	—	06-19 21:45
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 5pt5	7	$266	300	300	+0	open	—	07-06 02:56
btc updown 15m 1770967800	170	$238	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	02-13 07:37
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	17	$219	686	686	+0	open	—	06-05 06:21
btc updown 15m 1769683500	14	$218	559	558	+1	open	—	01-29 10:57
fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	3	$217	344	0	+344	open	—	06-20 04:42
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 4pt5	4	$200	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-19 22:04
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$196	400	400	+0	open	—	07-07 02:06
btc updown 5m 1783577700	18	$194	400	0	+400	open	—	07-09 06:18
btc updown 5m 1783575000	9	$191	400	0	+400	open	—	07-09 05:33
btc updown 5m 1783574700	22	$191	410	0	+410	open	—	07-09 05:29
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	12	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	07-23 06:37
btc updown 5m 1783578900	25	$183	400	0	+400	open	—	07-09 06:39
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	17	$182	135	103	+32	open	—	07-25 09:42
btc updown 15m 1769739300	18	$177	600	180	+420	open	—	01-30 02:25
btc updown 15m 1769682600	20	$152	196	196	+0	open	—	01-29 10:39
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	6	$148	200	200	+0	open	—	03-19 02:51
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	1	$141	241	0	+241	open	—	04-07 02:40
btc updown 5m 1783568400	8	$135	300	0	+300	open	—	07-09 03:44
btc updown 5m 1783578000	37	$131	700	0	+700	open	—	07-09 06:22
btc updown 5m 1783576500	23	$127	300	0	+300	open	—	07-09 05:58
btc updown 5m 1783578600	3	$126	169	50	+119	open	—	07-09 06:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 21:41:45	us government bans an open source ai model in 2026 20260703221501747	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xf9c293…
07-25 09:42:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	82¢	$28	0x6217b7…
07-24 09:19:31	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0x150ef7…
07-24 09:19:30	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	69	59¢	$41	0x531d77…
07-24 09:15:39	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x857f8e…
07-24 09:15:24	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x9d9c51…
07-23 14:20:10	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	95	55¢	$52	0xe64ef7…
07-23 14:12:43	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb8dada…
07-23 09:41:07	will tsla dip to 360 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x7bb87e…
07-23 07:51:27	will bitcoin dip to 65k in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	SELL	102	91¢	$93	0xd52900…
07-23 07:28:51	will bitcoin dip to 65k in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xab126c…
07-23 07:26:21	will bitcoin dip to 65k in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	BUY	192	90¢	$173	0x2f5f68…
07-23 07:19:21	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	156	1¢	$1	0xf4f678…
07-23 06:37:09	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	90	97¢	$87	0x499001…
07-23 04:55:48	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$2	0x4de28a…
07-23 04:17:04	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x0e854d…
07-23 03:08:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x179c54…
07-23 02:50:06	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9ef46a…
07-23 02:49:16	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x97d918…
07-23 02:49:09	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb5f4c2…
07-23 02:49:09	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7c137c…
07-23 02:49:09	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0f8a48…
07-23 02:49:07	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdfbb22…
07-23 02:49:06	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9eb68d…
07-23 02:49:01	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd0d1b3…
07-23 02:49:00	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7d7c9f…
07-23 02:49:00	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x63b486…
07-22 07:46:04	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xb7485c…
07-22 05:31:49	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x477e35…
07-21 22:20:30	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x739ec2…
07-21 16:42:42	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x66de89…
07-21 15:54:42	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x6ecb36…
07-21 07:55:24	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xda6832…
07-19 20:28:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x4e3375…
07-19 04:49:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	250	39¢	$98	0x7bcfc4…
07-19 02:27:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xa84b49…
07-18 23:53:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0x9a58d1…
07-18 20:40:18	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x65fdb6…
07-18 19:50:27	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x8a362e…
07-18 06:34:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0x87e362…
07-18 02:58:52	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0x85e6ae…
07-18 00:09:24	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	79¢	$43	0xc9e89c…
07-17 11:57:24	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$1	0xafddf4…
07-17 09:04:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x67a3c3…
07-17 07:19:18	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x16c619…
07-17 06:57:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xca2e79…
07-17 05:44:52	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x3f1dca…
07-17 03:07:25	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x297bdf…
07-17 01:59:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xc43bc6…
07-16 16:33:16	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x7e9804…
07-16 12:08:23	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf0c6a6…
07-16 12:08:10	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xc5ec7a…
07-16 12:08:10	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x41d457…
07-16 11:56:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xe676c3…
07-16 11:50:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	150	18¢	$27	0x3ad3a2…
07-16 09:40:20	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xe8ce0a…
07-16 09:39:59	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x735dca…
07-16 09:39:59	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x3cce7f…
07-16 09:39:41	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x17f510…
07-16 09:39:38	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xc53422…
07-16 07:08:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x35b9cd…
07-16 07:08:05	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x34567a…
07-16 06:47:23	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	74¢	$35	0xc25510…
07-15 17:11:40	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x3c635f…
07-14 13:07:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	17¢	$51	0xde1d0b…
07-14 09:23:20	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	165	4¢	$6	0xc4077b…
07-13 12:55:02	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	135	4¢	$5	0x53a050…
07-13 01:30:46	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0x0d5b1d…
07-13 01:00:13	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	262	3¢	$8	0x4d3bf0…
07-11 06:04:02	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	400	34¢	$136	0xcbfde7…
07-10 05:52:44	btc updown 5m 1783662600	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb7b625…
07-10 05:52:44	btc updown 5m 1783662600	Up	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x8dc2a3…
07-10 05:51:56	btc updown 5m 1783662600	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x2b5265…
07-10 05:49:34	btc updown 5m 1783662300	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7f49e3…
07-10 05:49:28	btc updown 5m 1783662300	Down	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xfdf72e…
07-10 05:49:07	btc updown 5m 1783662300	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x977f83…
07-10 05:49:04	btc updown 5m 1783662300	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x0032cc…
07-10 05:32:14	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x61bdc4…
07-10 05:32:14	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x142a11…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	24	9¢	$2	0xf585f7…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc26496…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x87b29f…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x841912…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x5be95f…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x4ee7a1…
07-10 05:32:13	btc updown 5m 1783661400	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x0cd9b4…
07-10 05:25:35	btc updown 5m 1783661100	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x8b4d0e…
07-10 05:25:35	btc updown 5m 1783661100	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x3f859d…
07-10 03:47:08	btc updown 5m 1783655100	Down	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xf7f50b…
07-10 03:46:55	btc updown 5m 1783655100	Up	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0xd23a24…
07-10 03:46:43	btc updown 5m 1783655100	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xa4d383…
07-10 03:42:23	btc updown 5m 1783654800	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd5da7c…
07-10 03:42:11	btc updown 5m 1783654800	Down	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x431633…
07-10 03:41:47	btc updown 5m 1783654800	Up	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x500d4d…
07-10 03:40:41	btc updown 5m 1783654800	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x2fa9f3…
07-10 03:39:38	btc updown 5m 1783654500	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xd946c0…
07-10 03:39:13	btc updown 5m 1783654500	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x0ac14e…
07-10 03:36:22	btc updown 5m 1783654500	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x93fcdf…
07-10 03:36:05	btc updown 5m 1783654500	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xba5f63…
07-10 03:34:11	btc updown 5m 1783654200	Up	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0x60da83…