Bouncy-Limestone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$137

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

595

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$453

1 position

First seen

2026-03-07

last 07-17 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 100% +$0

Other

31% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+898	$590	50¢	$453	$-137	07-23 02:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	9	$1.1K	1,489	1,489	+0	open	—	07-01 21:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$590	898	0	+898	open	—	07-23 02:14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	89	$484	548	549	-1	open	—	04-27 22:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	30	$454	447	447	+0	open	—	04-23 07:07
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	3	$392	200	200	+0	open	—	04-12 13:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	23	$347	353	353	+0	open	—	04-21 20:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	16	$332	440	440	+0	open	—	04-27 16:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	11	$257	176	176	+0	open	—	05-29 15:38
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	9	$257	145	145	+0	open	—	04-12 19:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	16	$255	214	214	+0	open	—	05-24 14:12
will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	7	$218	112	112	+0	open	—	04-18 22:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	6	$204	109	108	+0	open	—	04-17 21:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	14	$202	190	167	+22	open	—	04-20 23:49
will fideszkdnp finish with the second most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	7	$201	107	107	+0	open	—	04-12 19:02
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	4	$199	104	104	+0	open	—	06-26 20:34
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	04-01 09:04
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	6	$191	90	120	-30	open	—	04-12 19:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	04-15 20:21
will trump cut off trade with spain	4	$175	80	100	-20	open	—	03-21 07:36
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$173	174	174	+0	open	—	04-27 18:09
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	17	$156	166	196	-30	open	—	04-23 14:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$150	90	90	+0	open	—	04-07 20:56
will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 495 233 864 361	2	$147	80	80	+0	open	—	03-21 07:41
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	5	$146	77	77	+0	open	—	04-12 19:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$136	128	128	+0	open	—	05-08 17:09
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$131	80	80	+0	open	—	04-07 22:34
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	3	$125	69	69	+0	open	—	06-26 12:40
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	4	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	06-26 01:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$121	62	62	+0	open	—	06-28 03:40
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	5	$120	62	62	+0	open	—	06-01 01:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 02:14:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x929bfe…
07-17 13:49:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x832c4b…
07-16 18:30:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	55¢	$19	0x78f85c…
07-16 18:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0xbf545d…
07-07 07:39:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xcceedd…
07-05 20:26:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	548	73¢	$400	0xe592a1…
07-01 21:13:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	62	97¢	$60	0x735b7a…
07-01 16:13:01	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$60	0x2490b2…
07-01 15:57:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	61	96¢	$59	0x4f21c4…
07-01 13:53:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	61	97¢	$60	0x585120…
06-30 16:33:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	13¢	$126	0x709403…
06-30 14:23:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xeafdcd…
06-30 14:18:08	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	366	95¢	$347	0x7a72ec…
06-30 13:01:49	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xc14009…
06-30 13:00:08	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0x58abff…
06-28 03:40:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0xa5d808…
06-27 21:39:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x76c05d…
06-26 20:34:25	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	52	95¢	$50	0xe58147…
06-26 12:40:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	69	94¢	$65	0x4accad…
06-26 09:35:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	63	99¢	$63	0x3913e5…
06-26 06:32:16	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0x392bb4…
06-26 01:11:28	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0xbe1159…
06-25 15:46:10	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0x84b64f…
06-23 12:51:46	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0x50d596…
06-22 19:23:23	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x0e2f2e…
06-22 11:45:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xcfd169…
06-22 10:04:22	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xedbc4e…
06-22 08:59:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x206d0a…
06-22 08:58:31	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xc0f143…
06-22 08:05:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0xedc268…
06-21 10:26:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x7f1d17…
06-20 22:11:46	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x87190a…
06-18 18:30:32	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x141f38…
06-18 17:56:53	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	52	95¢	$50	0x4978b7…
06-17 16:55:17	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x48615c…
06-17 16:29:49	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	32	15¢	$5	0xbab5a3…
06-17 16:29:49	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x257ac7…
06-17 16:29:47	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x6e2b3b…
06-17 16:29:47	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x02f456…
06-17 16:29:46	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x7a44cf…
06-16 16:12:14	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x0212b3…
06-16 16:11:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x069697…
06-16 16:06:17	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x5b1557…
06-16 16:03:55	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x869c17…
06-16 15:36:08	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xc23aa2…
06-13 19:46:28	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x853e62…
06-11 12:21:57	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xc726c1…
06-11 12:19:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x5971ce…
06-08 21:43:55	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xd3e0ab…
06-08 02:55:48	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	57¢	$31	0x4fc1cf…
06-08 02:55:37	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0xa2894a…
06-07 19:03:34	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x72f476…
06-07 16:31:30	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd869c2…
06-07 02:00:09	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	54	91¢	$50	0x2cd770…
06-06 22:17:58	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xd44c95…
06-05 10:28:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x1b3890…
06-01 13:50:21	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x3b83e2…
06-01 13:20:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x0b07e4…
06-01 01:27:31	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$13	0x942b5a…
06-01 00:17:55	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x513615…
06-01 00:15:40	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0xc25c9f…
05-31 22:26:04	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4e1ade…
05-31 21:03:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0x0e91ae…
05-31 11:59:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x292e4b…
05-30 23:27:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x6cafe0…
05-30 23:24:28	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x1bef4e…
05-30 23:21:03	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xfa99a7…
05-30 23:18:42	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x36ae3b…
05-30 23:17:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x831e23…
05-30 23:12:24	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd7b773…
05-29 15:38:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0xc1310a…
05-24 14:12:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	65	91¢	$59	0x489f31…
05-24 07:22:04	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	89¢	$32	0x0dd7de…
05-24 07:09:01	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	87¢	$23	0xcb8b3f…
05-23 21:11:19	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	27	60¢	$16	0x04a0d3…
05-23 17:51:59	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xa9ec67…
05-21 17:18:53	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	27	91¢	$24	0x2ff1a2…
05-16 14:11:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x6d077b…
05-16 13:24:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0x36b7d4…
05-15 10:40:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0xa47f38…
05-14 10:41:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xfd791e…
05-13 12:28:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x86eae3…
05-13 09:43:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x13f6c2…
05-12 20:11:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x245b47…
05-12 17:26:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xc71a66…
05-12 17:08:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x9c1830…
05-12 17:07:42	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x9667c4…
05-12 17:06:32	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x0ff838…
05-12 17:05:20	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x51a2aa…
05-12 16:57:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xeb54f1…
05-12 16:54:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd726d5…
05-12 16:52:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xc453f6…
05-12 15:33:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xf7e041…
05-08 17:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xc0a12a…
05-08 17:10:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	39	77¢	$30	0x306186…
05-08 17:09:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0xb586fa…
05-08 17:09:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	66¢	$28	0x36e9dd…
05-08 09:20:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x3fa74f…
05-08 04:41:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x936dc3…
05-07 23:01:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x0a954f…